My Trip Through Trading
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@martin Its a split stake system in the +1.5 goal market. first entry between 45-55 mins averaging 2.32 2nd entry is usually around the 60 min mark for an average of 3.56.
Afraid I have not tracked the odds for the next goal market, perhaps I should start.
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@daniel-mills Thanks Daniel. VAR ruined that game completely. Onwards and upwards for the rest of the month
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@darri Thanks Darri, sound advice as always. Will keep this trick in mind if I start a pattern of over concern about individual trades. Like you say the 88.51% is what to focus on long term. I think I was just worried that I have a tendency to assume I have done something wrong and made a mistake in placing a trade due to my lack of experience. After reading through some comments, plus the post on your blog this morning, I am more confident that they were not mistakes, just trades that didnt win.
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@matt-wood Think I was on that 1st game in Korea (if it's the one i'm thinking it is). I wasn't watching but everything looked good from the pre-match stats. We must have joined at a similar ish time so I'll be following too. Best of luck for the rest of the month!
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@matt-wood your strike rate being 88.51% for shg is all you need to focus on here. If that strike rate is after hundreds of games and proof that scorelines are working then dont care about losses. Try for the next week to once you have placed the shg, dont look at the result. I did this for a while and slowly made me realise actually daily and weekly profits mean absolutely nothing. Turn off notifications once placed, hide your betfair bank total, remove the game from your flashscore list once placed. This will be a trick to your brain and be extremely painful not to check, so update end of every week the results, continue like that for 4 weeks and only ever focus on the execution of that one trade. Once you start focussing on that one trade youll find you will make better decisions. If its based purely off data it will keep you mentally strong knowing hey i can just let this be a passive income and my highly active brain and attention doesnt need to be so intently focussed on how each trade has done. When we do that we become so analytical over each trade when really it was just an unlucky one. I do that even today at times, over critique one of my trades when really in 2 months time ill not even remember it. All about the long term. For me iv had to do several of these tricks of the mind to make me a better trader as we have spoken about im a very hyper lad and tend to overthink, so iv had to adapt massively. Hope this helps. Its funny to think about but actually just do it and thank me later, im that confident it will work as long as your strategy has good data.
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@james-woodroffe said in Can I even trade...:
@matt-wood I got home this morning mate. I got no time to really see anything to be honest. I had to stick to some really strict rules whilst there and it was definitely different but still made the best of it. 4 hours after our last event I was shipped off to the airport
Haha no messing about then! Still an experience though
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@matt-wood I got home this morning mate. I got no time to really see anything to be honest. I had to stick to some really strict rules whilst there and it was definitely different but still made the best of it. 4 hours after our last event I was shipped off to the airport
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@matt-wood Freak games happen. last week i had a game in sweden that was suddenly suspended after 10 minutes due to a little rain. when they resumed an hr later they scored a goal while betfair was still suspended for another minutes after the restart.
Going from a nice profit to a small los
It happens.
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@james-woodroffe said in Can I even trade...:
@matt-wood I wouldn’t be blaming myself too much mate given those two examples from Korea. If you’ve ticked all the boxes to enter the trade and are happy to enter sadly mate VAR just happens. It’s also August 8 there’s still plenty of time to have a really good month. Don’t deviate from your plans and don’t beat yourself up.
Thanks mate, not overly concerned as its early aug 8th like you say. Just a lesson to be had for me here.
You still in Japan? Had much chance to take in any of the sights?
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@matt-wood I wouldn’t be blaming myself too much mate given those two examples from Korea. If you’ve ticked all the boxes to enter the trade and are happy to enter sadly mate VAR just happens. It’s also August 8 there’s still plenty of time to have a really good month. Don’t deviate from your plans and don’t beat yourself up.
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A rubbish start to the month so far.
6 trades, 2 winners, 1 scratch and 3 losers
In my system the losers will almost always be bigger than the winners so a higher strike is needed. I have been trading SHG off a filter Ive been running that is producing 88.51% SHG.
Two of my losers this last week have been particularly tough to take mentality wise. Both in Korea.
1st was a disallowed goal goal after a 7 and a half fecking min wait for VAR! This was in the 80th min too so players would have been knackered and a standing still bout for that long at that point in the game meant they would all cool down and I know from experience how tough it is to get yourself fired back up again in those situations. May have well just ended the game there.
2nd game was looking great at HT, good inplay, key players on the pitch, great price. Enter VAR. another disallowed goal. Follow this with a missed penalty!.
There is a lesson for me in all of this I think. One I am going to find tough to learn but should come more easily with experience.
Were they mistakes on my part, or good trades made correctly but just lost. I think in this case they were good trades as I had answered all my 'What has to happen?' @Ryan
questions. I think these were just unlucky games. My filter is consistently producing good results and the inplay stats were good for both games.I have a tendency (probably due to my lack of experience) to just assume I was wrong to do something.
As I said time will make this lesson easier to learn but mentally hard for me to get my soggy melon of a brain around.
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@lee-woodman Thanks Lee, I do have a similar style of record keeping to that, my mistakes are very clearly visible in bright orange with a note attached. I make sure I include all of them, winners losers and scratch trades, a mistake is a mistake and I want to cut them all out if I can.
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@matt-wood In my results sheet I note what trade type it was (O1.5, SH goal) then I also put what filter it was. So you could do similar but note ‘unplanned’ in the filter then at the end of the month check it out. You have to do it with winners too. These 2 columns help summarise what trades are working best but also what filter is doing best too
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Month round up: JULY (month 3)
Total trades: 54
Down from 94 last month. This feels like a more sensible amount but July has been very sparse, again time will tell what is normal for me.Winners: 40
Very happy with this for me as it feels like a good ratio, although value in those winners is what will lead to the profits.Of the 14 that did not win this month 2 were scratch trades and 1 was a trade abandoned due to an early red card (minimal loss). 3 were mistakes (get ready to roll your eyes and groan about those). This leaves only 8 trades that lost.
Mistakes: 3 (down 1 from last month)
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- Off plan! Euro qualifier and I was 'SURE' there would be a goal
Ludogorets vs Soligorsk. ended 0-0 and a loss for me. Should not have placed the trade as was not on a filter.
- Off plan! Euro qualifier and I was 'SURE' there would be a goal
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- Off plan. AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki. This one was on a filter but I placed a different trade to the plan. Underdog scored, HJK were much the better team, so they should win right?! Emotional trade, ended up as a tiny profit but I have not counted this as a winning trade due to it being off plan.
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- Off plan (again). Lech Poznan vs Radomiak. Inplay stats were good for a goal on this one but I still should not have placed it off plan. Small loss from this.
Once again the theme of unplanned trades rears its head. It is getting less each month now though so that is a plus point. Recording them in this way is 100% helping me to keep this in line.
Very pleased with my own SHG split stake filter this month as it netted me 7.33 points profit. If it keeps up with this sort of s/r into the winter leagues I should be ok with this
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@matt-wood I found the lack of trades , a great learning moment , i have spend more time researching games and leagues last month than i usualy do .
It also gave me some opertunity to look in to other sports and how those markets work .
