My Trip Through Trading
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@martin said in Can I even trade...:
@eamonn-hogan don't think you read what I wrote properly as it's a mathematical thing not an opinion and it's all about how your strategy has tested.
This. X 1,000
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I've had many conversations with traders about stats, data & patience recently and many of them have stated that their strategy didn't work but by collecting the data it worked with split stake.
Which:
- Increased the value
- Increased the profit longer term
- Gave them a simple strategy to follow
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@mark-maguire said in Can I even trade...:
I may make myself sound dumb here and I know I've come to this debate late but surely the very essence of the split stake is that it "automatically" finds you value over a period of time if you have set the criteria correctly.
You split your stake to minimise risk and get increasing value for a trade which your filter says will happen enough times over a hundred trades to make it work - as the game progresses the same trade becomes a better value bet, but even then there is protection built in by the exit points to minimise loss. If the numbers add up in testing, and the protection mechanisms are in place the only danger is the mentality of staying in too long because you think somethings going to happen in the game/fomo etc .. ? or am I missing something?
You are totally correct Mark
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I may make myself sound dumb here and I know I've come to this debate late but surely the very essence of the split stake is that it "automatically" finds you value over a period of time if you have set the criteria correctly.
You split your stake to minimise risk and get increasing value for a trade which your filter says will happen enough times over a hundred trades to make it work - as the game progresses the same trade becomes a better value bet, but even then there is protection built in by the exit points to minimise loss. If the numbers add up in testing, and the protection mechanisms are in place the only danger is the mentality of staying in too long because you think somethings going to happen in the game/fomo etc .. ? or am I missing something?
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@alan-steward said in Can I even trade...:
@eamonn-hogan said in Can I even trade...:
@martin @Ryan.
I think what Darri is saying is correct. You could have a lot of winners all with only one stake matched and the ones the losers which will have all stakes matched will wipe out all the winners. This alone would prove to be terrible mentally. Having such a high strike rate and still not being profitable. Yes you could get the second and third matched but when goals come early which is obviously what we want it could actually cost us being profitable.Having a strategy which you know has whatever strike rate and then finding value trades on your filter is definitely the way to go for me as the strategy has been tested and I know what odds I need to be successful.
Each to their own though.
Yes if all goals came early then it would most certainly affect value/profit & loss but not all goals do come too early, if they did then maybe your filter is too strong (referenced this in my post below)... However due to football being football and it not being a complete predictable sport natural goal distribution and dripped stakes will naturally help create value.
Done correctly Ryan's Split Stake filter & strategy/system will produce avg 0.25pts per win & 0.662pts red... Those figures have come from experience trading it
I was dubious but when Alan was doing the split stake bot thread and I added the Bfbotmanager version I left it running and add the selections in daily. It works and I add them whenever there are selections. I’m not turning off a gift horse and I know Alan does really well himself from split stakes.
I’ve noticed with this game that a need to be right all the time can blinker people sometimes(That onesocdoc or whatever his name is springs to mind, you can’t tell that idiot anything). That isn’t a dig at anyone it’s the truth. I love it when the debate on here opens up and we find new ways to do things and make money. I love it when people pull me up on things with better ideas. I also know that what works for one doesn’t work for everyone and that’s fine too. No one though, needs to be battered into submission(again onesocdoc or Johnny Grossmark if you want his real name) for the way they like to do things. There’s always more than one way to skin a cat.
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@eamonn-hogan said in Can I even trade...:
@martin @Ryan.
I think what Darri is saying is correct. You could have a lot of winners all with only one stake matched and the ones the losers which will have all stakes matched will wipe out all the winners. This alone would prove to be terrible mentally. Having such a high strike rate and still not being profitable. Yes you could get the second and third matched but when goals come early which is obviously what we want it could actually cost us being profitable.Having a strategy which you know has whatever strike rate and then finding value trades on your filter is definitely the way to go for me as the strategy has been tested and I know what odds I need to be successful.
Each to their own though.
Yes if all goals came early then it would most certainly affect value/profit & loss but not all goals do come too early, if they did then maybe your filter is too strong (referenced this in my post below)... However due to football being football and it not being a complete predictable sport natural goal distribution and dripped stakes will naturally help create value.
Done correctly Ryan's Split Stake filter & strategy/system will produce avg 0.25pts per win & 0.662pts red... Those figures have come from experience trading it
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@ryan said in Can I even trade...:
@matt-wood Gotcha, like you kept it in to remind you.
Do you have the results of the split stake with notes on the losing trades? A lot of the time people are obsessed with improving our winners and maximising there. What we might want to focus on is moving the floor up, if we can remove the bad ones then a rising tide raises all ships - we might be able to without too much effort create this into something special.
Yes I went back and took down all the info I could to help in the future with trades.
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@martin said in Can I even trade...:
@darri one thing you have missed in this assessment is that the strategy is developed and tested to suit the split staking, so in theory (and practice if it has tested successfully) the goals will come at good times for you in the long run. Split staking can be value trading if as above these conditions are present - Testing has shown to be profitable long term over a large sample size (the very definition of a value trade).
Spot on and thank you!
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@matt-wood As a novice but learning fast trader, I like your plan and think that the results so far, are good for what you want.
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@eamonn-hogan don't think you read what I wrote properly as it's a mathematical thing not an opinion and it's all about how your strategy has tested.
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@martin @Ryan.
I think what Darri is saying is correct. You could have a lot of winners all with only one stake matched and the ones the losers which will have all stakes matched will wipe out all the winners. This alone would prove to be terrible mentally. Having such a high strike rate and still not being profitable. Yes you could get the second and third matched but when goals come early which is obviously what we want it could actually cost us being profitable.Having a strategy which you know has whatever strike rate and then finding value trades on your filter is definitely the way to go for me as the strategy has been tested and I know what odds I need to be successful.
Each to their own though.
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@matt-wood Gotcha, like you kept it in to remind you.
Do you have the results of the split stake with notes on the losing trades? A lot of the time people are obsessed with improving our winners and maximising there. What we might want to focus on is moving the floor up, if we can remove the bad ones then a rising tide raises all ships - we might be able to without too much effort create this into something special.
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@darri if the issue is mentality then telling people to find value alone won't solve the issue, you are trying to put the cart before the horse. If mentality is the issue then it always will be - till that's sorted then it won't matter the strategy. Hence my point about changing human behaviour not the plan.
@Martin is exactly right, it's been built on testing (just like you have done with your stuff) it's also stood the test of time.
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@darri one thing you have missed in this assessment is that the strategy is developed and tested to suit the split staking, so in theory (and practice if it has tested successfully) the goals will come at good times for you in the long run. Split staking can be value trading if as above these conditions are present - Testing has shown to be profitable long term over a large sample size (the very definition of a value trade).
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@alan-steward if we did a direct comparison of someone who uses value for their first entry and only entry and compare that to someone who doesnt but hopes they get enough staked to make a good average odd before goal, i can guarantee that the first person wins long term more. The whole average odds argument iv seen many times and its wrong. On paper it sounds better, you have exposure to the market but over time your average odds increases. Similar to someone who is chasing a profit in a poorly done scalp. If that goal comes within the window of them placing splits its likely they will in the end make at least break even hopefully a small green. The main issue is that the varied returns. You can be selecting great games and be entering at the pefect time before a goal, boom small return based on first stake. These add up and you think great, the boom you lose a few games at a full stake. Making the good games meaningless. Now yes same applies other strats, but actually youd have got full reward with them. Adding to a losing position is frought with danger. Id love for us to do a challenge whereby one of us does the value way and the other the split. I know whch one will come out better, and at end of day why would we put money to something that isnt as good.
A "top trader" can do this is he so wishes, but can he wholeheartedly claim that split staking is better than value trading? I think hed be out a job. Now the caveat is and i said this in my previous posts, split staking can be profitable, you and ryan good examples here, but if i see someone struggling and they are using split stakes im going to be honest with them. Its not as good a strategy as people think and it can come with too many bad problems. Problems many dont like mentally. So for me and iv spoken to matt already about this and even he sees the flaws, it not something ill be recommending as their full strat. Its a decent beginner strat not a good long term one.
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@Matt-Wood Hi mate, nothing wrong with Split Stakes it's a very profitable strategy... One off its bigger downfalls is not always being able to enter every trade you wish as the first goal may have gone in too early (hence why I now use automation).
Nothing to stop you jumping into the o2.5 goal market, although this might be for the more experienced.
A lot of value actually comes from its title "Split Stake" ie you're dripping stakes with increasing odds and therefore building better average odds.
Ryan's Split Stake filter is one of the most profitable filters I've ever used and would gladly still use it today if I could automate updating results.
If you'd like any more help with Split stakes let me know as I'm very experienced within this strategy... I even created my own variation of dripped stakes (it's in my signature link but I recommend Ryan's for newer starters) and I'll help get you up and running... Even a top pro trader with a successful trading product has started similar staking to my strat... My time stamp here will clearly show I was trading it first before his product update... So I'm clearly on the right track.
With Ryan's Split Stake I used to trade leagues which converted minimum 80%... That's increasing your value some.
One big word of caution don't try to build filters with the strike rate too high as you can lower your average odds (ie backing too many favs where the odds are too low to start with) and not create enough value by dripping stakes alone.
Best of luck and let me know if you'd like any help
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@james-woodroffe said in Can I even trade...:
@matt-wood Happy New Year to you too bro. I think “Letting It Go”. Is the key realisation and what will hold you in good stead going forward in 2022. There’s so many opportunities that present themselves that when you can shrug your shoulders and say “Yeah whatever that could have been a green trade but I was doing something else”. Is a massive mindset that only benefits us.
I struggled with that for ages it’s definitely a turning point once you can let it go as opposed to hunting for something cause you can’t get that missed trade out of your mind.
The dispassionate unemotional side is key.Happy New Year buddy, hope you had a great one and didnt have to work away from home too much.
Letting go and now I have learned to do it has been a huge step for me. Like you say it is so much better coming to trade with an unemotional and dispassionate mindset. Agree 100% it was a huge turning point for me once I realised I had done it and was ok with doing it.
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@ryan said in Can I even trade...:
@matt-wood How come you had a brain fart on the split stake?
That was my mistake of the month. Have not done such a thing for ages and I knew I shouldnt have done it as soon as I did. I tried out my own split stake from untested data, very stupid and I know better than that. Just thought Id record it so I cannot pretend it didnt happen.
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@ryan value is seriously easy to calculate, if there is any traders reading this ill tell them how to find value if they give this time rather than jumping on a split stake hoping they will eventually. Just be patient and record data slowly. Everyone that iv helped, granted i only tend to select a handful to help because this isnt my job, but they seem to be able to pick value better than most by end of it.
It doesnt work well if the person has no idea on value, you still need to know what value is to actually place a trade. Otherwise you are just hitting in hope. The whole point of trading and using exchanges is because we are looking for value in any trade we place. To not do that is us just accepting losing profits. You still need to be undersanding of what th split stakes are actually for. Each split should be treated as if they were a standalone trade. Each entry should be value in their own right. Just going lets place at this time and this time is not value, its just assuming people know what value is. The best versions of your split stake for example are when people have indeed found value matches, rather than just this game will do.
As said the split stake can be profitable but the way people are taught it is as you are seeing not always working. People are interested in finding value tho bud, people are messaging me asking for help. They get it in the end because ill guide them and ill tell them how to find value, its not difficult and i dont know why you are saying they might never know. Trading with no value in mind is a recipe for disaster. So if anyone wants help then post up and ask r message me or one of the pros and we will help them understand what value is, its not difficult or a myth.
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@darri the strategy has a place for a trader at the right time though, you are focusing on your opinion of finding value - not every trader understands this, some cannot find value no matter how hard they look.
That's why it works well, agreed there are issues with it but no strategy is perfect. How often are those issues down to the person doing it? (no saying it's Matt's fault) but the masses who I have spoken with and there have been a lot the losses can be avoided. It's down to what they are doing, not the strategy itself.
One thing with this strategy is it gets people doing the right things, moving towards finding value, better results keeping. Which then opens the door for people to know what to focus on. Then they can find better selections, more value and gets them towards the goal.
Simply just telling people to find value doesn't work, its fraught with complexity. The main question people will have is, how do I find value then how do I know what is and isn't value?!
The split stake that I have used has led to many many traders being able to finally get profit and build their own strategy which has led to their goals.
