My Trip Through Trading
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@matt-wood fire it over and ill look over it during int break, try give you a couple of angles to look into
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@darri Sure, only if you dont mind
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@matt-wood do you want to send me the link via message and ill have a glimpse, might be something another set of eyes might spot, but since you have that itll be easier for me to suggest tweaks
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@darri not broken down like that yet, but its all recorded:
e.g.:
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@matt-wood and you have this kind of data for every stats software input?
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@darri Yes I am tracking those. This is an area I need to improve on really though. I had started to break things down for this filter in that way:
I think this might be my next area to work on in terms of filter building and improving.
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@matt-wood the old thing i say is master one thing at a time. You build a specific filter for that type of trade will always perform better than something that is general. Im pretty sure my LTD is not going to work on every other market. I get that this is a goals filter so should expect goals, but iv seen loads of filters, the best ones tend to be specific to the market they are targetting.
Along with this sheet are you also tracking your filters actual criteria. Ie when a game is popping up on the filter are you tracking what that game was for each stat input:
Example:
Dortmund vs Freiburgavg goals = 3.4
Home scored = 100%
Away scored = 80%
Overall btts = 80%
etcAre you doing that? Thats were i get all my tweaks for any filter for not just in looking at all the available markets. If you can pop that up we can look at good tweaks.
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@matt-wood It’s nothing special, just probably similar to yours, I’m just have some additional criteria so I can see what, if anything, makes a difference. I’ll send it over and you can check it out
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@lee-woodman Thanks Lee, Im sure your stuff will blown my little head off but would be interesting to compare.
Ive just been looking at this filter and my SHG filter side by side and they are very similar in stats, just the main SHG filter performs better.
I think probably this filter needs to specialize somewhere rather than being so general.
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@matt-wood Yeah I think like Darri said, you do need something else to improve it. I’ll have a look what info I have as my selections will be very similar to yours, I can email it you if you want and you might be able to pull some of the info across, plus it might give you an idea of criteria which may be worth adding going forward
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@darri Yes I can see what you mean, a few losses and those sort of tiny edges would see winnings wiped out.
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@matt-wood dont feel too disheartened im sure there must be a tweak you can find and try optimise it. But if your filter is looking for high scoring games its very likely that most of those odds ranges will be what betfair will price it up as. Dont get me wrong some of them based on those min odds would work, for example alot of FHGs will be around 1.3-1.4 so would hit your break even but only just, the issue is you actually need those games to hit those odds and more with commission. High scoring games from filters might be unlikely to from those timestamps. Just my opinion, but small edges on 1-2% scare me with how that would affect people on a variance level. Like to see bigger edges.
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@lee-woodman aaahhh yes I think I understand. Probably above my pay grade in terms of spreadsheeting though. Still something to think about and learn
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@matt-wood Ok, the only reason I asked is because you can pull in data from other sheets if you collect the match ID, as it’s unique to that game and can be cross referenced
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@lee-woodman Thanks Lee.
I dont collect the match ID. I wouldnt know what to do with it if I did
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@matt-wood said in Can I even trade...:
Some time ago I set myself up a filter with the idea of looking at the BTTS market with a potential set and forget strategy.
Filter:
Overall goals scored per match average >= 3.2
Home scored by FT% >=80
Away scored by FT% >=80
Overall FT BTTS% >=60
Away played >=5
Home played >=5The following stats are from 354 games (there was a test run of 500 games before this version).
I think the BTTS idea is a bit hit and miss but seems like there is some good data here so have been tracking with more purpose. These numbers are from raw data from the software, I do have a spreadsheet that is breaking this all down by leagues but needs time to build up to significant numbers. Rough plan was to just let the numbers build up through to the end of the winter seasons and see what it looks like.
Any thoughts and or advice would be very welcome.
Congratulations mate, all the best to you!
Your filter is very similar to mine, except that instead of BTTS I have ‘average SH goals’ at 1.7+. It has a good SR of post 60’, 70’ and 80’ goals aswell as 2 SH goals. Do you collect the match ID as part of your data by any chance?
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@alastair-todd Cheers Alastair
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@matt-wood Hurrah Hussar! Congratulations
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@darri Thanks Darri, should be a really good xmas this year
I was a little 'worried' that my data was just that, a nice set of numbers and nothing else. Did have half an idea to bend the filter towards an O1.5 or O2.5 but Im not sure, as you say, they could just be what the markets expect anyway.
Thanks as always for your input though
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Congrats mate! Hopefully a nice way to end 2021
In regards to you asking about that data, id say that on the goals front that most of it is very much on par with what the markets will predict already. Might be a few tweaks to your system you could find? I always like to build a filter for a specific market and trade ultimately. General data on it for other things tends to not be optimised. If this was designed for BTTS then id suggest you tweak it for shg because btts markets are not hugely liquid for some leagues. Might be something in the other markets that i dont trade in but hopefully you can find tweaks for this.
However, its great news about you and the future wife, much deserved
