My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road
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@matt-wood said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Thanks will see how my testing goes. Early days but quite hopeful for this.
Yes seems hopeful. I merely stubbled across this by accident. We let you know
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@matt-wood said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Interesting lads, the laying O3.5 is something I have recently set up a test filter for. What average odds do you both get at KO?
Currently ave odds of 3.4
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@matt-wood
Hi Matt,
I try to lay under $6 , O 3.5 or O4.5 goals. I dont go over that price. -
@Steve-Sandell
I just traded spurs v wolves , layed O3.5 goals , 1-0 after 7 mins , i greened up at HT for 40% . Looks like more goals but we will see. But a profit is good. -
@steve-sandell
Yes thats similar to what i do as well. I try to look for games with plenty of liquidity so as you can green out for a decent amount. What I like about the strategy is your starting off in green territory and if a goal is scored in the first 5 mins and your in red territory you still have that 3 goal buffer to decide when to trade out or not. -
@gary-macaulay said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell
Thats something ive never done mate. That is also why I joined her to track and log all trades. Ive only just done research with stats and tarded on my feelings. I normally lay O3.5 for around the first 20 mins of the game.Ok
What ive noticed if you lay from KO and its 0-0 at HT you can do 3 things green up at HT normally can get 60% sometimes higher or remove liability so you get a free bet for the 2nd half or if 0-0 let it run if there is 3 goals in 2nd half you still win. Even 1 goal in 1st half isnt that bad. Key is to find lower scoring games -
@steve-sandell
Thats something ive never done mate. That is also why I joined her to track and log all trades. Ive only just done research with stats and tarded on my feelings. I normally lay O3.5 for around the first 20 mins of the game. -
@gary-macaulay said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell
Hi Steve,
ill be interested to see your trades, ive had a fair bit of success laying O3.5 goals myself. Good luck with it mate and happy trading.
GaryHow many games have you logged and how many points
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@steve-sandell
Hi Steve,
ill be interested to see your trades, ive had a fair bit of success laying O3.5 goals myself. Good luck with it mate and happy trading.
Gary -
Been paper trading a LTD system currently +36 points from 133 games odds no higher than 5.5. Will continue logging until happy with the amount of data collected then will post trades
Also been working on Lay O3.5 (under 4 goals eg 2-1, 1-2, 1-1 etc) currently +27 points from 118 games odds no higher 5.5 currently ave odds of 3.5. Will post again when ive collected more data
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Will be posting SHG trades later. Might have a couple of Lay U1.5 in MLS later depends on odds. Also might have a value (in my eyes) O1.5 / lay U1.5 later but going to wait nearer the time as depends on odds
Going for a O1.5 in the Arsenal Tula v Rubin Kazan game currently 1.42. Split stakes on about 20 mins if no goal
Goal came too early
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Will be posting SHG trades later. Might have a couple of Lay U1.5 in MLS later depends on odds. Also might have a value (in my eyes) O1.5 / lay U1.5 later but going to wait nearer the time as depends on odds
Going for a O1.5 in the Arsenal Tula v Rubin Kazan game currently 1.42. Split stakes on about 20 mins if no goal
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Will be posting SHG trades later. Might have a couple of Lay U1.5 in MLS later depends on odds. Also might have a value (in my eyes) O1.5 / lay U1.5 later but going to wait nearer the time as depends on odds
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@steve-sandell welcome back mate!
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@steve-sandell said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
Hi All
Im back. After that months loss i have been going through my strategies and see if can improve my results. I think im there. So going forward im mainly going to trade SHG. My Lay U1.5 im going for quality over quantity.
So for Lay U1.5 there will be leagues i will not be trading unless i see value in a certain match. They are the following
Brazil Serie A
English Championship
French Ligue 2
Japan J League
Russia Premier League
Spain Segunda
These leagues aren't producing the required strike rate that im looking for
I will start posting games as and when they pop up
Good to be backGreat to see you are back. Tough July! Anyway, sometimes it isn't the actual leagues, but the teams that are playing. I'd rarely place a trade on a match that Burnley are playing or Getafe in La Liga. Might be worth thinking about
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Hi All
Im back. After that months loss i have been going through my strategies and see if can improve my results. I think im there. So going forward im mainly going to trade SHG. My Lay U1.5 im going for quality over quantity.
So for Lay U1.5 there will be leagues i will not be trading unless i see value in a certain match. They are the following
Brazil Serie A
English Championship
French Ligue 2
Japan J League
Russia Premier League
Spain Segunda
These leagues aren't producing the required strike rate that im looking for
I will start posting games as and when they pop up
Good to be back -
@darri said in My Betfair Journey - The Long & Winding Road:
@steve-sandell Strategies is the only word i took from what you said. Try to perhaps wait until one of them is fully consistent before adding the others. Master one thing at a time. Dont fall for the greed. These are your strategies? Why not track your favourite one, then in background keep recording the data and keep improving it. While you do that use the btc strategies. Keiths, Stuarts, Mine, Alans, Ryans or the BTC selections. These make up around 10-30 points every month. This way your growing and then if one of your own strategies comes thru and tops them then scrap the others for yours. Your not going to be able to just magically come up with a strat that beats mine or keiths without focussing on just that one strategy. Its how iv built my own portfolio. I do 100% believe your own strategies long term is best, but using the ready made ones while you learn your own makes more sense money wise. A -21 points loss is sizeable, if you had the other strategies ongoing they would have helped average that out. Hope you take this the right way, often hurts a bit when someone says stop doing your own stuff. All im saying is stop until your stuff is beating what is already proven profitable strats.
I see a 1.5 lay, SHG and LTD, 3 strategies. Pick one of them and get that one as solid as possible. If they dont beat the current stuff bin it and move on, but give it a long cycle. Often when we do our own stuff we either give it too long or not long enough due to emotion. If your trading the btc traders strats and tracking this in background it takes emotion out of it completely. Meaning you give the strategy time to grow and improve or scrap without worrying about it. Its all about mindset bud. Just trying to help.
Noted cheers mate thanks for the advice.
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@steve-sandell Strategies is the only word i took from what you said. Try to perhaps wait until one of them is fully consistent before adding the others. Master one thing at a time. Dont fall for the greed. These are your strategies? Why not track your favourite one, then in background keep recording the data and keep improving it. While you do that use the btc strategies. Keiths, Stuarts, Mine, Alans, Ryans or the BTC selections. These make up around 10-30 points every month. This way your growing and then if one of your own strategies comes thru and tops them then scrap the others for yours. Your not going to be able to just magically come up with a strat that beats mine or keiths without focussing on just that one strategy. Its how iv built my own portfolio. I do 100% believe your own strategies long term is best, but using the ready made ones while you learn your own makes more sense money wise. A -21 points loss is sizeable, if you had the other strategies ongoing they would have helped average that out. Hope you take this the right way, often hurts a bit when someone says stop doing your own stuff. All im saying is stop until your stuff is beating what is already proven profitable strats.
I see a 1.5 lay, SHG and LTD, 3 strategies. Pick one of them and get that one as solid as possible. If they dont beat the current stuff bin it and move on, but give it a long cycle. Often when we do our own stuff we either give it too long or not long enough due to emotion. If your trading the btc traders strats and tracking this in background it takes emotion out of it completely. Meaning you give the strategy time to grow and improve or scrap without worrying about it. Its all about mindset bud. Just trying to help.
