Check My Working! - Narrowing Down Selections
-
Hi Guys. I'm hoping for some help! Despite having turned my hand to this trading thing for a while, I've never reached out for some help "marking my work" and without direct feedback on this part of the process, I can't hope to improve!
Unlike most here, I don't have a tremendous amount of football knowledge. I've never been that interested in it as a sport and most of what I have learned I have learned since trading since last June.
I'm finally getting somewhere with some strategies and discipline. Tomorrow I have a TONNE of selections and I really need to narrow them down. I think I've done a fairly good job, but I'm going to post all of the selections here, with my explanations of why I think it should remain on the list or be removed, and if anyone gets the time to confirm or deny my assumptions, that would be most appreciated! If you disagree, please disagree and let me know why you disagree - chances are I'll learn something!
Off the top of my head, these individuals will certainly be able to help, if they get chance, but anyone reading this, feel free to comment and get involved! - @Darri , @Keith-Anderson , @Martin-Futter , @Ryan-Carruthers , @Alan-Steward
Selections I'm Keeping:
- Bayern Munich vs B. Monchengladbach - still chances for M.Gladbach, and Bayern need a game to secure the league
- AZ Alkmaar vs Sittard - all positions in contention still
- Young Boys vs Basel - some motivation; Young Boys have absolutely run away with it, but Basel could do to win for points to maintain their position, they don't want to lose tomorrow, might want draw...
- Greuther Furth vs Karlsruher - Furth still fighting for top
- Zlin vs Opava - Opava are mostly doomed, but Zlin need a game or so to get out of Relegation range.
- Lyon vs Lorient - all to play for for Lyon, plus Lorient want to stay out of Relegation
- Fiorentina vs Lazio - all to play for for Lazio
Selections I'm Removing or Considering Removing
- Reading vs Huddersfield – only one game left, neither team can move position, lack of motivation,
- Zilina vs Trencin – they would have to win all games to get promoted, don't think theres enough motivation and too many selections, so removing
- Schaffhausen vs Aarau – mild motivation, but Thun and Grasshoppers are running away with it...
- Hatayspor vs Denizlispor – Denizlispor definitely getting relegated and Hatayspor not winning anything...
- Goztepe vs Konyaspor – Both middle of the table with 3 games left and nothing to play for.
The above are a combination of either O1.5 Split Stake or a HT LCS/LTD. I look forward to hearing everyone points of view!
thanks -
@martin said in Check My Working! - Narrowing Down Selections:
@daniel-cooper this may help!
Cheers Martin!
-
@darri cheers Darri, I appreciate your kind words! Speaking of exerimenting, I suppose than Manchester squad against Leicester last night plays to this!
I've let the key players aspect slip to the wayside for some reason - something I used to do when we first discussed it and its such a great tool! Pre-inplay-price is crucial like you say.
-
@keith-anderson said in Check My Working! - Narrowing Down Selections:
I can't fault your thought process at all @Daniel-Cooper
I'd be interested in how you execute your trades i.e. - what odds do you take? What happens when things don't go your way?
It's about having confidence in your trading plan and your picks. That will come through time.
Cheers Keith!
I'll tell you one thing, it has taken all of the last 9 months for discipline to come through! -
@ryan said in Check My Working! - Narrowing Down Selections:
Love that you have posted this and reaching out for help in this way
I’ll be honest I can’t talk to the motivation much as thats the last parameter for me, I’d more be looking at the players playing and the stats do they back up what we are looking to achieve with the idea of the trade (so the split stake is HT entry).
I think not knowing football isn’t a major challenge either, you can literally find anything you need online about teams, players etc... I know sometimes I have a fondness of players and teams and I have to work hard to put that aside.
Some notes on what I would be tracking on the results sheet - I’d break down what happens in the game, the price you enter and then what happens how many shots on target etc... I’d also track what happens in the goal windows so if a goal comes 0-10 what happens to goals in 11-20 and so on, this is something I picked up recently from @Mark-Maguire.
I’m always on hand to help too
Ooooh those are some interesting points. I must admit I've never tracked SOT's and the like, nor really broken down goal windows like that. Also, easy to over prioritise motivation and forget to look at everything else, like key players and such
-
@alastair-todd Thats cracking
if it follows that trend ;D -
@ryan-carruthers said in Check My Working! - Narrowing Down Selections:
@alastair-todd I’d also track the time of the goals as well
might be able to enter a bit later and get more value.Thanks Ryan, I do in fact do that at the moment and the results show the average goal time is 29 minutes. However it is still quite a small sample!
-
@alastair-todd I’d also track the time of the goals as well
might be able to enter a bit later and get more value. -
Hey everyone! Thank you all so so so much for taking the time to respond, I did read most of the responses and wanted to get back to you all individually, but the day definitely ran away from me! I’ve got lots of time tomorrow to respond individually though and take in all the golden nuggets, I wanted to write this so you don’t wonder why I never replied!!!
Hope you all had a green day
-
@daniel-cooper this may help!
-
One day ill write a short post
always start one thinking a yes ill be so specific here and make it look neat. Then 5-10 mins later im writing a novel and then editing it every minute with all the spelling checks or things iv missed out 
-
So firstly fantastic thought process with the above. Havent looked at the games myself to see but those are the thoughts i look at. Can a team achieve something or at risk of relegation? When a league reaches typically the last 5 games thats when ill really ramp up the motivation aspect. MOTIVATION at this stage of season is absolutely key. We see random results more often at this stage. Its because of pressure. Some teams thrive normally the big ones and some teams bottle it. Teams who have nothing to play for wont launch a 9 man attack at 88 mins leaving the defence vulnerable for the counter if they have nothing to play for, also teams with nothing to play for experiment and try new things so could go against your data. The thing is we select these games on historic data normally during the normal part of season when everything is still to play for, yet when we get to end of season teams play differently so could go massively against that data. Newcastles run has been unreal. Its such a key factor this stage of season. Its all above evaluating risk and minimising it. End of season is high risk for clubs and us, so as traders we must use this factor into looking for the more likely games. Goals will happen all the time even in the games we dont pick but thats part of trading, once a game leaves the list i dont care about it.
Now if this wasnt end of season phase is when you look at the pre-inplay-price process as your main tool, but you must still use this even end of season too, its the tools to build confidence. Pre match stats, im assuming your using filters to find above games, they give you the current trends of each game and highlight the good ones. Then take a note of key players for me thats goal contributions (goals + assists/total team goals). Take that understanding/hypothesis into the game.
Now heres where some people differ from others but its worked for me and pretty much all the guys you tagged, INPLAY. Its overlooked. Quite simply past history of teams does not mean that this game will follow suit. Its upto us to measure if this game looks like it will follow that trend. You can use inplay stats here. I use eye test but maybe thats when liking football and knowledge comes in. Im more than happy to say inplay stats would do just fine here. Flashscores and sofascore are all you need here.
Make sure those key players are playing that you jotted down at start.Then its the most important thing for any approach, PRICE. This youll learn over time. What is an average price at this stage of game in this scenario etc. Its why while in testing it may be a good idea to track the price. So over 300-400 games we can go yes this is the average price but we are taking x because its a better edge. Like saying 50/50 coin flip, we know it should be 2.0 but if we get 2.2 we take it.
Here the thing, we could all just pick a random game and win or lose. We could go into a game with our strategies and make our own decisions. These things we advise are just tool for you to pinpoint the more likely games to focus on. That in turn brings confidence into when it comes time to enter a trade. Its easy to find a good strategy its much harder to manage yourself when you have it. Knowing you have a good strategy and knowing when to use it is probably the biggest difference between the people you tagged and the ones learning. These things come in stages so dont panic and keep this level head you have mate, good to see.
So yes motivation is a good way to narrow this stage of season, but make sure that the games that do qualify your main process is consistent both during and end of season too: pre-inplay-price. This whole approach would change if i was doing a set and forget pre match but pre and price would still be key. Be adaptable aswell we say be robotic but what we mean is be less emotional actually in games im flexible with entries and prices based on the situation. Its just a game of is this price better value than what the actual chance is. These tools above and what others suggest are just that, tools to help us judge price and actual chance.
-
@alastair-todd said in Check My Working! - Narrowing Down Selections:
@keith-anderson That's a very good question and one that I realise I don't properly know the answer to. At the moment I would say "most" but that is clearly not a very scientific answer. On my spreadsheet I always note the final score but I realise it is not clear whether those goals came in the 1st or 2nd halves. Note to self: add more information into my spreadsheet so I can understand better what is going on. Thanks Keith for the very useful prompt. This forum is gold dust!
I would say its pretty high. From your list you'll be able to spot which HT scoreline is more likely to have a SHG.
-
@keith-anderson That's a very good question and one that I realise I don't properly know the answer to. At the moment I would say "most" but that is clearly not a very scientific answer. On my spreadsheet I always note the final score but I realise it is not clear whether those goals came in the 1st or 2nd halves. Note to self: add more information into my spreadsheet so I can understand better what is going on. Thanks Keith for the very useful prompt. This forum is gold dust!
-
@alastair-todd said in Check My Working! - Narrowing Down Selections:
I spent an hour last night narrowing down 25 filter selections to about 10 for a FHG strategy, on motivation alone. I'll have a look at the players a bit later. However, the first match I had factored IN for a FHG was the Sydney match in-play at the moment, partly as Sydney can go top 2 if they win. I was a bit busy this morning with dogs and my son this morning so didn't enter a trade. Looked at the HT score: 0-0! I wonder if it will be one of those days when all the factored in trades don't have a FHG and all those factored out do !
How many of the games on your FHG strategy have a SHG?
-
I spent an hour last night narrowing down 25 filter selections to about 10 for a FHG strategy, on motivation alone. I'll have a look at the players a bit later. However, the first match I had factored IN for a FHG was the Sydney match in-play at the moment, partly as Sydney can go top 2 if they win. I was a bit busy this morning with dogs and my son this morning so didn't enter a trade. Looked at the HT score: 0-0! I wonder if it will be one of those days when all the factored in trades don't have a FHG and all those factored out do !
-
I can't fault your thought process at all @Daniel-Cooper
I'd be interested in how you execute your trades i.e. - what odds do you take? What happens when things don't go your way?
It's about having confidence in your trading plan and your picks. That will come through time.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Love that you have posted this and reaching out for help in this way
I’ll be honest I can’t talk to the motivation much as thats the last parameter for me, I’d more be looking at the players playing and the stats do they back up what we are looking to achieve with the idea of the trade (so the split stake is HT entry).
I think not knowing football isn’t a major challenge either, you can literally find anything you need online about teams, players etc... I know sometimes I have a fondness of players and teams and I have to work hard to put that aside.
Some notes on what I would be tracking on the results sheet - I’d break down what happens in the game, the price you enter and then what happens how many shots on target etc... I’d also track what happens in the goal windows so if a goal comes 0-10 what happens to goals in 11-20 and so on, this is something I picked up recently from @Mark-Maguire.
I’m always on hand to help too
