2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@stephen-morfey Did not see that coming!
Didn't even put a fight up really! He's going on the S**t list!Didn't agree with this when you posted it the other day so stayed away from this.
Two red flags for me
You could get on him at 10.0 at some bookmakers pre tournament so with their juice factored in, 6.2 was pretty low odds (although if you had gone in he was available to lay at around 4.5-6.0 yesterday)
He was beaten in 1st round of Italian open last week on return from injury. -
10.30am French Open Q
Dolehide v Maria Baria
I spotted this one when I did the daily sheet and it looked like Dolehide is the better server, I thought I would dig deeper on this match to see where I could find value - I have Dolehide as the value player, she leads the H2H is in decent form and those 2 wins against Baria were both on clay, the last one being this year. I get Dolehide at 1.05 on stats alone.
I will let them both serve if both players hold their serve I will back Dolehide - who currently is 1.67.
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@stephen-morfey Did not see that coming!
Didn't even put a fight up really! He's going on the S**t list! -
@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
ATP Geneva - Longer trades
Stan Wawrinka to win - 6.2
Not that much money on this market so keep the stakes smaller, but I think he's got a cracking chance of reaching the final (odds should be 2.3 to get to final & 3.7 to win) this gives a nice opportunity to have a small back on him and take the liability out at QF round.
Wrawinka out in straight sets 6-4 6-0
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@ryan-carruthers
@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon @Frode-Lia its a cracker isn't it!!
Maybe we could get a filter created on the stats guys? Would highlight the opportunities quicker
It's a belter!
Agree, a filter for the PJH would be ideal for highlighting these.
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There was a match this morning I watched for this strategy and just want to confirm it all with you. The match was Lapko v Andreescu
Lapko PJH - 65.47
Andreescu - 47.01Match starts and both players hold their own serve, Lapko drops her serve in the 4th game to make the score 1-4. At this point the entry is ready on Lapko as she has the higher PJH. Andreescu lost serve 2-3 now - @Frode-Lia this is where you exit isn't it?
Do you ever stay in after this game? Lapko went on to win the next 3 games. She lost the first set though 4-6.
She lost the set on her serve as well - would you go straight in on her in the next set because she was broken in the last game? (even though the set finished or do you wait for her to be broken in a fresh set)
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@simon @Frode-Lia its a cracker isn't it!!
Maybe we could get a filter created on the stats guys? Would highlight the opportunities quicker
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@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@frode-lia It was Adam's great work!
Can I be a pain I know exactly what you are doing to use it, but can you just put a few notes on how you used it on this trade for example? Just for the other traders watching your trades buddy
I will try.
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
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I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
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I checked for injuries and so on.
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My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
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I would first let the players serve once each.
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On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
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Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
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Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
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Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.
Only just started trading tennis and started following this strategy today @Frode-Lia and having fantastic results! Small loss on Wang Vs Collins (due to poor staking on my behalf) and 36% ROI on the Diyas Vs Babos match so far. Appreciate you sharing this gem!
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Time 4.30pm
Competition Nurnberg
Match Larsson McHale
BF Odds 1.96 2.02
Ryan’s Odds 1.51 2.98
Â
Player Notes Loves the clay Plays with Topspin
 Athletic player Baseliner
 A lot of potential Mentally weak
 Can be erratic
How Would I trade it? Larsson is a player I like, the price here gives her a lot of value in my eyes. She doesn’t lead the H2H but McHale hasn’t had the best form recently especially on clay losing the last 4 of 5 on clay. I will wait for them both to serve and then if they hold their own serve then back Larsson. -
ATP Geneva - Longer trades
Stan Wawrinka to win - 6.2
Not that much money on this market so keep the stakes smaller, but I think he's got a cracking chance of reaching the final (odds should be 2.3 to get to final & 3.7 to win) this gives a nice opportunity to have a small back on him and take the liability out at QF round.
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@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
You just cannot touch Rafa on clay can you, I do really like Zverev though. Cracking player in my eyes
he will be the player to dominate the most in the coming post Fed, Rafa, Djoker and Murray years
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@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@martin-futter This is an excellent point, one I was chatting about to Sarah in the car on the way back from Glasgow yesterday.
There is a lot of people who think yes, they are super fit though and should be able to do this. Tennis is physically and emotionally demanding and the season goes on for such a long time, add in flying, travelling time to hotels etc... takes a huge toll on the body
i bet she enjoyed that chat lol!
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@martin-futter This is an excellent point, one I was chatting about to Sarah in the car on the way back from Glasgow yesterday.
There is a lot of people who think yes, they are super fit though and should be able to do this. Tennis is physically and emotionally demanding and the season goes on for such a long time, add in flying, travelling time to hotels etc... takes a huge toll on the body
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Time 10.00am 12pm  Â
Competition Nurnberg Nurnberg  Â
Match Riske Minella Pliskova Goerges
BF Odds 1.71 2.42 3.05 1.5
Ryan’s Odds 1.58 2.72 5.21 1.24
Â
Player Notes Attacking Big server Blacklisted player of mine Attacking, big server!
 Big serve Decline Athletic player Erratic player
 Flat hitter Big server Likes clay
 Mentally not the strongest
How Would I trade it? Riske is not the most confident on the clay court but all her stats hold good to have her as the value player here for me, she leads the H2H and is a touch of value where I have her at 1.58 and the BF price is 1.71. I want them both to serve and then I will back Riske if both players hold their serve - I am very mindful of the way Riske plays and if she shows any signs of not hitting the lines I will get out. Goerges is the value player here for me, but not a trade I will be touching until I can back her for at least a while - I would like to back Goerges at 1.8/1.90 - to achieve this price though it will need Pliskova to come out firing which will mean I will wait till the outcome of the first set. Then look to back Goerges.
