2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@chris-osborne Annoys me when I've waited they've delayed the start and then I walk away mind!
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@ryan no worries that’s what I thought just clarifying
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@chris-osborne I walked away buddy
I aim to do all the trading in the first set and usually this is regardless of the 3 or 5. It's annoying in games like yesterday when I was right but it pay dividend and saves me longer term. -
Bit of a non event yesterday less than 1pt profit but it all adds up. Todays provisional plan is below: -
Again mainly looking at backing a favourite that goes behind.
The Kasatkina v Bencic match could be pretty wild and perfect for swing trading. Two players with horrendous serves at times. they could quite easily set a world record for the number of breaks of serve in a three set match
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@ryan With this being a best of 5 set as opposed to a 3 set match, and with Bonzi breaking first game of the match, did you still walk away at that point or with the extra time look at entering later on.
Probably a bit of a results orientated question as Bagnis won in straight sets but was wandering if you treat 5 set matches differently to 3 set matches?
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2.5 pts profit yesterday which I'll take all day but was a bit of a mixed bag.
Not a great slate of matches today in my opinion but a few I have my eye on work permitting: -
e Pliskova/Vekic game is in blue asPotential first set winner lays in most of these depending on game flow - the Pliskova/Vekic game is in blue as would normally be tight but vekic not played since Australian Open after knee surgery
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Bagnis v Bonzi
Ok, so I know Bonzi is young and there might be some potential there maybe, but surely this isn’t as close as the odds have it? You can get 1.81 on Bagnis a player who loves the clay, plays from the baseline and uses topspin which is known to work on clay? He’s erratic at times yes but he’s got enough experience at this game.
I’m going to let them both serve if they both hold then I will back Bagnis
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@chris-osborne Agreed! Not surprised she pulled out either.
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Probably no surprise, Osaka just pulled out of French Open, with Andreescu also losing today, leaves the bottom half of the draw as likely to be a clear path to the final for Sabalenka although Badosa and Serena will want to prove otherwise.
Rest of the bottom half with the possible exception of Bencic shouldn't be any match.
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Was busy yesterday, didn't really get chance to do much with the French Open only trading the Kvitova and Zverev games for 1.5pts profit. Backed them both when they we're behind and in trouble - Kvitova after set 1 and Zverev after he lost the first two sets. Removed liability on both after they won the next set after which they won the remaining sets fairly easily.
More time today, due to the volume of games will mainly be focussing on the WTA until later in the tournament when it is easier to keep track.
The Kenin, Giorgi, Peterson and Podoroska matches in particular could well turn into a race as to who can hold serve.
This initial plan could change depending on what is going on but these are the games I will be looking at mainly. Likely to be trading first set loser depending on game flow etc.
Also, Rogers, Bencic, Konta and Giorgi are coming up as players to back based on the Projected Hold strategy Ryan posted a few weeks ago.
From a British point of view we could quite concievably have no players left in the singles draw after today although Norrie should beat Fratengelo, I didn't expect Evans to lose yesterday. Konta nad Watson are two of a number of players to benefit from the protected rankings, Konta mainly through injuries. Watson has no excuse other than she's crap. Both should be ranked far lower than they currently are. In a normal year, Konta should easily beat Cirstea but I can't see it this year. Cirstea has been in reasonable form whereas Konta is struggling with a knee injury.
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@james-woodroffe Riske pulled out, Badosa now seeded and could face Osaka in 3rd round. Which makes what was an easy draw for Osaka more difficult.
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Apologies Barty v Swiatek would be a Semi not a quarter. Sabalenka’s side looks fascinating as potentially Badosa in the round of 16’s before either Serena or Kvitova most likely in Quarter Final.
I warming to Kiki Bertens having a good run. She would likely get Osaka in the 4th round before potentially Andrescu or Bencic in a QF. She’s 150.0 a semi final run if fit is not outside the realms of possibility in what looks like a quarter of the draw she won’t have particularly big fears. Was the Madrid champion in 2019 and can play on clay obviously. -
Interesting, top half of wta strong could be straightforward for Sabalenka for a while
With how the draw has worked out for men’s, looks intruiging will have a proper look probably tomorrow after qualifiers allocated, a couple of dangerous floaters there especially Serrano and Konjuh if she qualifies tomorrow as well as Cerrundolo brothers
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Ash Barty and Iga Swiatek on the same side of the draw and set to meet in a Qtr Final which leaves Sabalenka as the 3 seed on the other side of the draw. Coco drawn to meet Barty in the R16 and Kenin seeded 4 gets Ostapenko in the first round.
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@chris-osborne hearing that Rafa and Novak on the same side of the draw along with Fed and Rublev.
Leaving Tsitsipas, Thiem, Zverev and Medvedev on the other side. -
@james-woodroffe think there imminent, Michael Samulski has just tweeted the men’s draw.
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@chris-osborne Badosa probably won’t be seeded but will still be a super dangerous floater a lot will reveal itself come the main draw which I think is tomorrow.
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Not traded anything this week but have been observing and the amount of tanking that has been going on has been frightening. Probably understandable the week before a slam but why enter if you can’t be bothered.
I’ve decided that I won’t trade anything the week before any of the slams going forward.
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@james-woodroffe interesting insights James, I’m of a similar opinion on most of what you said.
I think the draw is going to be key for both Gauff and Badosa as they will both probably be seeded in the mid to late 20’s, if they are in the same area as Sabalenka or Swiatek for example could be difficult for them.
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Just been having a little look at the outright markets for Roland Garros and there’s a couple that have caught my eye in both the men’s and women’s.
Stefanos Tsitsipas 9.40
With Rafa at odds on and Djoko at 5.60, Stefanos for mine is the only guy who’s a genuine chance to go all the way and 9.40 looks pretty good. With Dom Thiem struggling to find rhythm and consistency on tour this year and Medvedev clearly not a clay courter Tsitsipas is clearly the best option. Whilst blokes like Zverev and Berentini, Sinner , Rudd and Karatsev will all get mentioned the main factor for me is who can legitimately go 5 sets and 4.5 hours to knock off Rafa or Djoko because that’s what it’s going to take. Personally I’d love to see Thiem make a big run at 15.5 cause he could upset one of them but I don’t see it I do see Tsitsipas however and would be surprised if he’s not in the semis and I would imagine facing Djoko and he could win that to secure his first Grand Slam Final.
Iva Swiatek 3.85
Not surprisingly the girls is more open and this seems a great price for the defending champion especially when you have no Halep. I doubt there’s a better clay court player on the WTA circuit and she will fear nobody.Arnya Sabalenka 12.0
Another who’s at a great price and has recently broken thru for her first 1000 title. Like Swiatek I doubt Sabalenka will fear anybody and expect a deep run into week 2.Dark Horses
Coco Gauff 27.0 and Paula Badosa 38.0
Pardon the cliche but winning form is good form and whilst I’d be surprised to see them win a deep run would not both girls have the game to play well on clay and Coco is starting to show she truly belongs and will be in the conversation for Slams going forward. Badosa gets better each tournament and also has the self belief now.
That’s my thoughts I’m off to Paris on Friday let’s hope we see some green with these calls.
