2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@chris-osborne I had same last week 2 x retirements when I 1st started trading last year probs because of covid players were not up to fitness had a really bad run since then I had been ok apart from last week
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Aaaargh Two early second set retirements in two days after close 1st sets not my idea of fun
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@martin Has anyone used fairbot using automation wanted to try tennis trading back the server when 0-15 so lost 1st point on serve then trade out at end of game if serve hold and trade out on opponent if they get a break point - never done automation before
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@kevin-gedny said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne He certainly looked very impressive today to round off three incredible matches. All we need now is to work out how to translate this into an edge
Possibly as with most favourites, backing them when they go a break down early or if they lose the first set would be my approach on clay anyway not sure about other surfaces
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@chris-osborne He certainly looked very impressive today to round off three incredible matches. All we need now is to work out how to translate this into an edge
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@kevin-gedny said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
It's been a bit of a roller-coaster trading Nadal this week, scratched out when he broke Goffin in the 2nd set on Thursday then watched the price swing back as he blew the set. Then I was fortunate enough to benefit from Alcaraz's injury in set two yesterday.
Not easy this tennis trading, but is fun learning.
Missed the opportunity in the second set yesterday but Alcaraz is going to be a star, he'll be world no 1 before long
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It's been a bit of a roller-coaster trading Nadal this week, scratched out when he broke Goffin in the 2nd set on Thursday then watched the price swing back as he blew the set. Then I was fortunate enough to benefit from Alcaraz's injury in set two yesterday.
Not easy this tennis trading, but is fun learning.
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Raducanu v Andreescu 1st Round in Rome next week - two guarantees there will be at least one MTO each and the loser will moan about a fictiscious injury of some description
And the winner plays Tormo or Osaka not an easy section for any of the four
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Got greedy turned a 3pt profit into 2pt loss
Note to self quit when ahead
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@sean-fitzgerald said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
Welcome back Camilo Giorgi 5-2 up in the 3rd v Pegula loses the next five games to lose the set 7-5 turning a losing trade into profit in the process.
It was the reverse for me. Winning trade went down the plug
Unlucky, Seen her lose so many games from winning positions such as this this, its virtually automatic for me to oppose. Not going to work out all the time but your not going to lose much . Pera is another one but she is too far down the rankings at the minute to get into regular tournamements
Thought she'd got out that habit last year
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@chris-osborne said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
Welcome back Camilo Giorgi 5-2 up in the 3rd v Pegula loses the next five games to lose the set 7-5 turning a losing trade into profit in the process.
It was the reverse for me. Winning trade went down the plug
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@kevin-gedny if you search down the thread a bit, I’ve posted my approach to lay the first set winner.
It’s player dependent but I will generally remove 50% liability after the break and the remainder if they hold the next service game leaving a free bet I could cash out at this point but will always cash out at the end of a set regardless.
For WTA in particular, I may cash out after they have broken if I expect them to be broken.
If just starting out, I would cash out after our player breaks.
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I’ve recently started looking at Tennis trading with lay the first set winner
My biggest issue in testing is when to close a losing trade
Do the more experienced traders have a rule of thumb?
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Welcome back Camilo Giorgi 5-2 up in the 3rd v Pegula loses the next five games to lose the set 7-5 turning a losing trade into profit in the process.
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@chris-king Its in the Sequences area of the stats: -
The filter is still a work in progress for one reason and another my temmis trading has been stop start this year will reset from Madrid starting on Thursday. Its generally running around 60% which is ok because your in and out of the markets pretty quickly
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@chris-osborne Thanks! That’s generous of you.
So this will give the selections that meet the criteria with the favourites odds falling at or below 1.70, but I’m guessing as the first 3 criteria being ‘>=0’ means i will have to narrow down the selections to my liking?
Yes the Won S1 Lost S2 and visa versa stats are ideal..i haven’t found them myself. Can’t have looked closely enough.
I’ll copy the filter and have a look at what it brings. Have you had success using it?
I enjoy laying the first set winner and am becoming more comfortable with it and my way of trading it. I have only done it sparingly this year (about 45 trades) using £1 stakes and am profitable (a shade under 10pts as of today) but slowly improving my ability to trade it as time passes.
I’ve never used a filter before, just watched the markets and score lines for suitable trades and done some quick research on flash scores or SofaScore.
As it’s feeling like it could be my thing in trading i thought i really need to properly start finding matches that are suitable stats wise and then pick from them.
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@chris-king This is the one I use: -
Couple of words of caution, the stats will include grand slams so men's matches are distorted for the 3 Set Matches %. I generally focus on WTA so this doesn't affect me too much.
I like the Won 1st lost 2nd and vice versa stats but it will only show the results for one of the players so you will have to look up the second player
If any of the stats other than odds have stats of above 40% is generally what I will consider trading deoending on the 1st set dynamics
Good luck
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Hi, I’m having a play about with the Tennis software and trying to come up with a filter for laying the first set winner.
Any tips or advice that anyone could give me on creating one? I’m thinking it needs to be very simple with maybe just 1-2 criteria.
Essentially I’m thinking i just want matches involving players who’s matches very often go to 3 sets or close to 3, and/or involve a good break of service percentage in the second set?
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Of course Iga decides to break the game after I cashed out for a scratch trade at 4-4
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Back on the tennis for the first time since Indian Wells nice 1.8 pts profit from backing Cirstea when a break behind in the first set and also 0.8pts from Kudermetova - and a wild 2nd set where I switched back and forth.
I find clay easier to trade than other surfaces see what I can do over the next few weeks
