2022 Tennis Trading Thread
-
@ryan I’d love a set and forget also although not sure tennis lends itself to set and forget as much as football or racing for example
One thing I’ve been trying to get started for a long time is to build a tennis model.
-
@chris-osborne totally agree, the quality in the WTA is the poorest I think I have ever seen it in.
there's some players out there who could really capitalise on this and really push on.
I would love to build a solid value set and forget for tennis - I will investigate this.
-
@ryan said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne This is a great approach and will really show some outliers - have you done any cross checking with the forecast either to find stats to hone in on this?
No I do have a filter I’ve been testing off and on but need to get back to it, I’m off next week and one thing I want to look at is my tennis trading took a downturn during the clay season mind you that could just be down to mainly focussing on wta and everyone is capable of beating eachother with the obvious exception of Iga who is incredible right now and should be an inspiration to the likes of Raducanu and Fernandez
-
@chris-osborne This is a great approach and will really show some outliers - have you done any cross checking with the forecast either to find stats to hone in on this?
-
@liam-willis Chris explained this perfectly!
-
@chris-osborne thanks chris
-
@rick-watson said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
hey guys anyone else not able to get the tennis stats to come up..... or is it just me? @adam
Wasn’t last night I assume as just the men’s final today it’s pending an update
-
hey guys anyone else not able to get the tennis stats to come up..... or is it just me? @adam
-
@nick-allan A stat I use quite a bit is Won 1st Set lost 2nd or the reverse lost 1st Set won 2nd
Not currently any games in the stats this is from a post I made a few weeks ago, anything over 40% worth considering
I generally look for underdogs who take the 1st set although WTA been difficult of late as other than Swiatek the rest of the players can and are beating eachother.
There's a post I made a couple of months ago where I gave my approach
-
So I'm looking to dip my toe and start trading tennis and I've decided to start with the lay the first set winner strategy. So I've been looking at the odds to make sure that both players are roughly around about the same odds as per the strategy set up but I just wonder if there's something else that I should be looking for? I've only used the stats in football so I've never used the tennis stats before - So what should I be looking for? Am I looking for players that lose the first set and then come back and win the second set?
-
@chris-osborne ahhh thats what i thought but wasnt sure that makes more sense now. thanks for that
-
@liam-willis Its not necessarily the favourite your backing but the person who has a Projected Hold 3pts higher than the opponent and goes a break of serve behind. It is more often than not the favourite but not always
Truth be told, the odds on Swiatek weren't likely to give much value even if going a break behind which is irrelevant as she's broken Kasatkina in the first game. Kas broken back but Iga's odds still only 1.07 only going to be around 1.2 if she gets the next break
The opportunities may come in the Trevisan v Gauff match which is likely to be more competitive.
At odds of 3.5 to 1.4 pre match, if Gauff is broken first which is more than likely, it could be worth getting involved
-
@ryan said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
Want to bring the attention to everybody who wants to trade tennis about a cracking strategy from our very own @Frode-Lia
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.
You can build this in the software by inputting
- Forecast Projected Hold Ratings (greater than equal to) >= 0
- Exporting the sheet
- Then click the match in the software
- Check that the difference is 3 if not remove from your sheet
is this trading on the favourite if they go a break down or is it the first to go a break down a break. eg todays game swiatek is pre match odds of 1.1 and is on the software for a ph of 62 and kasatkina is 56 so there is a difference of more than 3%. have i got this right or am i missing something
-
@chris-osborne I think Wimbledon will be great though, no matter the points its the world cup of tennis!
-
@ryan taking a break from tennis for a while to reassess. Not convinced on motivation for the grass court season with no ranking points for Wimbledon
-
@chris-osborne Yep 100% seeing the same, I am actually avoiding the WTA side of the draw at the moment, it's always been a bit up and down but at the moment its brutal.
-
@ryan cheers for posting , not used it much lately but is a good strategy. Probably need to get back to it, French Open been carnage for my bankroll especially on WTA side of the draw. Too many underdogs winning even lay 1st set struggled. Seeing the results it’s probably not a surprise
WTA can probably be summed up as Swiatek miles ahead of anyone and World Rankings completely irrelevant for everyone else they can all beat eachother
-
Want to bring the attention to everybody who wants to trade tennis about a cracking strategy from our very own @Frode-Lia
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.
You can build this in the software by inputting
- Forecast Projected Hold Ratings (greater than equal to) >= 0
- Exporting the sheet
- Then click the match in the software
- Check that the difference is 3 if not remove from your sheet
-
@timothy-porter said in 2022 Tennis Trading Thread:
@martin Has anyone used fairbot using automation wanted to try tennis trading back the server when 0-15 so lost 1st point on serve then trade out at end of game if serve hold and trade out on opponent if they get a break point - never done automation before
Any help appreciatedHi Tim, if you can wait a few days I'm happy to try and put something together. Feel free to send me more details in terms of logic and I can look at it a little later next week.
Cheers
Kevin -
@timothy-porter Swings and roundabouts I have also benefitted from retrements but not for a while
