2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@ryan said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne yea, will mix it up a little - looking forward to it though!
Bigger impact on men than women I would imagine, with Medvedev and Rublev in top 10. Wta there’s volume but no one with a chance of doing anything Sabalenka ranked 4 somehow although been complete and utter garbage all year
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@chris-osborne yea, will mix it up a little - looking forward to it though!
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Wimbledon has banned all players from Russia and Belarus for this year for obvious reasons.
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@chris-osborne that post below is very informative thank you.
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@carl-ritchie said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne yeah was just going in blind with no data on the match at all, thou literally after i posted he got broke back, so based on that i should have cashed out. im doing small trades now on this to keep sensible so liability isnt to much of an issue yet.
Ok only reason I commented on game selection was never heard of either player
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Lay First Set Strategy
Speaking to @Dan Mackinnon yesterday promised I would show my Lay First Set Strategy - Any more experienced tennis traders feel free to add as necessary.
He's looking at automating @Martin's LFS strategy on Fairbot which if can be done would be good, Martin's strategy exits at the end of the second set, not sure on the success rate as I look to exit or remove liability earlier especially in WTA matches and ATP on Clay where plenty of breaks are common.
What We're Looking For
Player who lost first set to get the first break in second and then preferably hold there next service game. Depending on the players involved, I wold remove 50% liablity on the Break and then the rest on the service hold.
Entry Point
Lay player who won the first set before they serve for the first time im the second set for two pts liability - this value is rarely at risk as liability will be removed . If there not serving the first game I would wait to enter, if they break immediately this will give us better odds. Set and a break up is an excellent entry point.
Game Selection
Two things I'm looking out for: -
Strong favourite loses 1st set
Close and competitive 1st set with breaks of serve
I rarely enter if lay price is above 1.6Exit Points
Remove 50% liability if our player gets the first break
Remove 50% liabikity if our player also holds next service gameI'm generally aiming for around 1pt profit if ok with profit when liability removed I will hedge at this point. For WTA matches, will be more cautious as there are more breaks of serve, if not confident they will hold serve I will cash out on the break
If don't cash out when liability removed make sure you cash out at the end of the 2nd set
If there's no break of serve at 4-4 I will cash out for a small loss.
The worse case scenario is if the player we're opposing breaks first, in which case I will be quite strict here and if our player doesn't break back immediately cash out for around 1pts loss, a double break against us will lead to full liability being lost which we need to avoid.
I've made the mistake in the past of staying in too long suffering full losses which I am now looking to avoid
@carl-ritchie - post I referred to earier
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@chris-osborne yeah was just going in blind with no data on the match at all, thou literally after i posted he got broke back, so based on that i should have cashed out. im doing small trades now on this to keep sensible so liability isnt to much of an issue yet.
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@carl-ritchie As your new to it then no harm in cashing out now.
I'd be careful with game selection though, Challenger tournaments can be strange to trade and also may not have the liability of ATP/WTA matches which I tend to stick to
Depending on the players, I will remove 50% iability on the break, the remainder if our player holds there next service game - may also cash out here also.
In WTA matches depending on who the players involved are I may just cash out as more susceptible to be broken back.
As a default action though cashing out after the break is fine.
A while ago I wrote a post with my approach to Laying the First Set Winner I'll find it and repost.
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Hey guys so just some advice on the Lay the first set winner. I have tried it on a match right now Jelle Sels vs Zdenek Kolar, i layed the first set winner jelle sels, kolar has now broke on the 2nd game in the match and is 2 up, should you green up now or wait to end of the set?
Im trying to get disciplined in my trades, so want to have the same rule everytime. thanks for any advice
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For Personal reasons, not been able to trade any tennis since Indian Wells, Therre's no WTA this week but will look to start again from the tournaments starting 18th April
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@simji said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Well this makes most tournaments unpredictable now
Doesn’t change anything for me Barty barely played much anyway over past couple of years due to covid travel restrictions
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@sean-fitzgerald said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Barty announcing retirement at 25!!!! Huge news
Can’t say I’m surprised by this after not playing Indian Wells and Miami
Sabalenka now world ranked number 1 heaven help us at least until Swiatek wins a couple of clay tournaments
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Barty announcing retirement at 25!!!! Huge news
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With Miami being on the East, timings not so good for me this week. Think my first match will be Anisimova v Rogers and we’ll go from there
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I'm hoping for a better Miami than Indian Wells.
Tomorrow morning is the time to sit down and look at the week ahead.
IGA won last week could be a good bet to lay against her this week. As back to back tournaments normally doesn't happen very much in wta
Barty won last year tournament against Andreescu 6-3 4-0 ret
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@pat-mc-daid I would be careful with qualifiers as liquidity generally low and motivation can be a question.
There’s normally three or four tournaments a week so plenty to trade but only Miami for next two weeks which is one of the biggest tournaments outside the slams after which clay season starts, Miami starts tomorrow
