2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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patient play making it look easy stephens
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@ryan-carruthers said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
WTA French Open Final 2pm
Halep v Stephens
Halep leads the H2H on this one and my sheet gives her a touch of value, but at this price I won’t be backing her from the start I actually want to try and get a price of 1.70 on Halep. Halep has lost the last 6/7 finals while Stephens is a player on some good form I think she will give Halep a good test here but I full expect Halep to take the trophy home!
Stephens can be erratic and Halep is a punishing player to face especially when she gets in the zone and the groove! Perfect scenario for me would be a Stephens 1st set win where I can then back Halep. Otherwise my only other entry on this match will be later in the 1st set if its been tight and Halep is around 1.70+ BUT the pressure will have to be getting to Stephens in this situation - so I want to see her struggling to finish the game out and dropping serves, making simple errors!
agree was thinking if I get 2.0 on Halep I will be in unless serious warning signs, really hope she can do it got to be one of the best female players ever to not win a slam, her game is incredible and yet another player showing height is not everything anymore!
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WTA French Open Final 2pm
Halep v Stephens
Halep leads the H2H on this one and my sheet gives her a touch of value, but at this price I won’t be backing her from the start I actually want to try and get a price of 1.70 on Halep. Halep has lost the last 6/7 finals while Stephens is a player on some good form I think she will give Halep a good test here but I full expect Halep to take the trophy home!
Stephens can be erratic and Halep is a punishing player to face especially when she gets in the zone and the groove! Perfect scenario for me would be a Stephens 1st set win where I can then back Halep. Otherwise my only other entry on this match will be later in the 1st set if its been tight and Halep is around 1.70+ BUT the pressure will have to be getting to Stephens in this situation - so I want to see her struggling to finish the game out and dropping serves, making simple errors!
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All trial and error buddy, sure as we do more of these we shall spot some patterns to maximise the profit
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@ryan-carruthers that’s me out for a small loss. I have been exiting if a set and a break down, but then it risks taking a bigger hit if it goes to a TB in the 2nd and lose it, so may need refining.
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@simon Yep, I am out and away. Pretty much a small loss for me - nothing to worry about though
I do a lot of my trading in the first set -
@ryan-carruthers disappointing end to the set after getting back into it. Looks like he's growing into the game though so hopefully a come back in the second.
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@simon break here be nice!
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@ryan-carruthers must admit not a player I know a huge amount about so good to know, but like you say, just need him to start strongly and the market to panic
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@simon yes, downside here is only 16 ticks - the upside however is massive, plus Thiem has started slowly in the past before!
Worth noting that Cecchinato has lost 4/5 when playing a top ten and lost 10/11 when priced as heavy underdog. However we aren't needing him to win, just start well
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@ryan-carruthers yeah i’d usually prefer to see a bit of the game and see how it starts but with Thiem already at such a low price, the risk is low so think I’ll go in from the off. If the game is as tight as the stats suggest then his odds should move out at some point during the match.
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@simon I agree with you, so does the ELO calculator!
You thinking of a lay from the start?
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Thiem looks good for a lay today based on the PJH, BPS & BPC stats.
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@frode-lia She was and I go out!
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@simon Murg back on track now
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@ryan-carruthers was thinking the same. Halep had 1 hr and a half longer on court so that may come into it. Having said that Halep romping the first set at the moment.
Category Tournament Date Player 1 Player 2