2022 Tennis Trading Thread

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers good recovery in the afternoon when changing plan from 3 points down to only 1 down in the end. Also 1 win for the straight lays and another looking likely.

[Ryan]

@simon agree stick to what worked on the FO

[A Former User]

@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

Lay lay lay today, have pasted them below. The one's with N/A I couldn't get an ELO probability.

McDonald M. N/A
Cilic M. 0.375
Lorenzi P. 0.494
Johnson S. 0.361
Kohlschreiber P. 0.350
Coric B. 0.400
Millman J. N/A
Seppi A. N/A

Bad start to the day and with 3 losers and 1 winner, and also noticed with the new staking plan and exit points, the downside on the losing trades are larger than the upside on winning trades. This plan works great for 3 set matches, but the swing isn't as great in a 5 set game with the market reacting more when the favourite brakes in set 1. So going to reduce my liability and let these run for the set rather than getting out when there is a break. This worked well at the French open so will revert to that.

[Ryan]

@frode-lia yep! And on the Dart match up too!

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers First greens on Jarry.

[Ryan]

0_1530520447922_Tennis:2:7.pdf

[Ryan]

@simon I think they'll do good things to be honest I am just doing the sheets now!

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers yeah bring it on! Interested to see how the lays perform in a major now I have them more dialled in.

[Ryan]

@simon here we go!!! I am buzzing for these 2 weeks!

[A Former User]

Lay lay lay today, have pasted them below. The one's with N/A I couldn't get an ELO probability.

McDonald M. N/A
Cilic M. 0.375
Lorenzi P. 0.494
Johnson S. 0.361
Kohlschreiber P. 0.350
Coric B. 0.400
Millman J. N/A
Seppi A. N/A

[Ryan]

Wozniacki for the 3-3 / 4-4 today guys!

[Ryan]

@simon Always worth doing though, the data is growing and we can spot some bits with these

[A Former User]

@martin-futter yeah was a close first set, could have gone either way like you say and as expected. On to the next one

[Martin]

@simon could have gone either way though and that's expected as a pick'em, wouldn't read to much into this one just bad luck imo

[A Former User]

@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

1 lay today, Mannarino.

The Elo probability has this as pick’em (slightly favoriting Sousa). Going to track the elo probability of each selection going forward to see if I can spot any trends.

Losing trade today, Sousa had plenty of break points but never converted. The trend of these performing more poorly as tournaments progress also continues.

[A Former User]

@simon perfect thank you

[A Former User]

@stephen-morfey these are the pages I've been using Stephen. Explains all:

http://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html
https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#system=tennis-men&rating1=4&rating2=38&best_of=5

[A Former User]

@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:

1 lay today, Mannarino.

The Elo probability has this as pick’em (slightly favoriting Sousa). Going to track the elo probability of each selection going forward to see if I can spot any trends.

Sorry for the dumb question but has anyone got any good website links or reading material on what ELO probability is and how to calculate it?

[A Former User]

1 lay today, Mannarino.

The Elo probability has this as pick’em (slightly favoriting Sousa). Going to track the elo probability of each selection going forward to see if I can spot any trends.

[Ryan]

Something I am testing in beta mode but sharing with you guys, stats suggesting it will be pretty good. The basic premise is backing strong servers on their serve when they are down, as I said data collection stage.