2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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I am going through some of the data right now and one game looks nice to laying the server in the WTA is the 11.30 Boulter v Osaka match up.
Boulters PJH hold is 65.16 Osaka is a low 58.51!
So, looking then at the dominance and conversion Boulter is a lot higher here too (Conversion 7.17 (B) to 3.33 (O) & dominance 1.05 to 0.89)
I will look to lay Osaka on her serve when she's 30-15, 40-40 and A-40.
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@simon Wicked! Watching these with interest.
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Today's lays:
Khachanov K.
Simon G.
Del Potro J.
Nadal R.
Shapovalov D.
Tomic B. -
@simon slams are always tougher, you get some tougher match ups and the top players are so motivated for them, when they get a good lead as well they can really put pressure on the other player.
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@ryan-carruthers yeah reminds me of horse racing strategies. I would imagine this could be quite volatile and high variance, so interested to see what the next few months produce.
I always thought the slams would be the time to make more profit but not working out that way for sure. -
@martin-futter yeah includes comns. 4% was the number I was hoping to hit with these so working out well so far although still very early days.
Yeah that’s true, greater motivation from the top seeds also makes this strategy harder to profit from at the slams. Also noticed the market can have bigger over reactions to a dog breaking in a 3 set game compared with a 5 set game obviously due to the amount of tennis left to play, but seems around the same when a favourite breaks in 3 or 5 set, therefore the risk reward can be greater in a 3 setter too. Good learning curve this!
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Been crunching some numbers on my lays for anyone who may be interested.
Trading these has produced 4% ROI from the French Open until now (so just over a month).
If I break this down, the smaller 3 set tournaments have a 10% ROI whereas the French Open and Wimbledon showing just 2% so far.If I was straight laying these rather than trading them, they would have produced a 20% ROI. Again breaking this down the 3 set tournaments show 52% ROI whereas the French Open and Wimbledon -5%.
Food for thought, but maybe confirms my suspicion that laying favourites over 5 sets is always going to be less profitable than 3 because the cream tends to rise to the top over the longer format. Nonetheless will continue on with them during Wimbledon as want to gather more data as still a fairly small sample, but it looks like a pattern is definitely starting to emerge.
Ramble over
Great work - assume these numbers include comm? If so even 4% is brilliant long term!
Yep agree on Slams, top players are also much more motivated to win them which makes a difference. (Wimbledon has been dull for me so far as not many heavy favs even losing sets in the mens yet! French was really good for it though.)
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@simon This is very interesting, the 20% ROI is brilliant, looks very similar to the horses where we filtered by courses this is the same - a lot of tennis guys I know who do straight laying and backing on tennis also suffer at the slams!
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Been crunching some numbers on my lays for anyone who may be interested.
Trading these has produced 4% ROI from the French Open until now (so just over a month).
If I break this down, the smaller 3 set tournaments have a 10% ROI whereas the French Open and Wimbledon showing just 2% so far.If I was straight laying these rather than trading them, they would have produced a 20% ROI. Again breaking this down the 3 set tournaments show 52% ROI whereas the French Open and Wimbledon -5%.
Food for thought, but maybe confirms my suspicion that laying favourites over 5 sets is always going to be less profitable than 3 because the cream tends to rise to the top over the longer format. Nonetheless will continue on with them during Wimbledon as want to gather more data as still a fairly small sample, but it looks like a pattern is definitely starting to emerge.
Ramble over
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My lays today......a lot more managebale:
Pouille L. N/A
Medvedev D. 0.431
Monfils G. 0.314
Federer R. 0.264
Isner J. 0.339
Mannarino A. 0.486 -
Today's Sheets
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@damon-heslop isn’t he always? Katie Boulter
she’s replacing genie! -
@damon-heslop easy pickings!
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Well if I thought there were a lot yesterday................todays lays.
Chardy J. 0.486
Haase R. 0.414
Goffin D. 0.357
Gulbis E. N/A
Lopez F. 0.427
Kukushkin M. 0.468
Djokovic N. 0.285
Schwartzman D. 0.350
Fritz T. N/A
Verdasco F. 0.476
Fuscovics M. 0.479
Cecchinato M. 0.420
Cuevas P. 0.476
Fognini F. 0.394That's it for me today, managed all but 3 which are on this evening. Just over a point up, so back in profit.
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Hope you're all aboard the Fognini horror show!
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Today's sheets
0_1530607366005_Tennis3:7.pdf -
@simon Wow!
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Well if I thought there were a lot yesterday................todays lays.
Chardy J. 0.486
Haase R. 0.414
Goffin D. 0.357
Gulbis E. N/A
Lopez F. 0.427
Kukushkin M. 0.468
Djokovic N. 0.285
Schwartzman D. 0.350
Fritz T. N/A
Verdasco F. 0.476
Fuscovics M. 0.479
Cecchinato M. 0.420
Cuevas P. 0.476
Fognini F. 0.394 -
@simon stick with those I think, this is exciting!
