2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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2 lays today:
Pella
JohnsonNo trading for me today but will track the results.
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Today’s lays:
Cecchinato
Carreno-Busta
Bolelli
JohnsonTypically these have performed better in the earlier rounds so interested to see how these go today.
2 out of 4 on the trades, and I missed the Johnson one putting the wee man to bed and it was a loser, so I owe him one
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Boom! Carreno-Busta broken!
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@david-friend Yep, I copied this straight from Frode's post. Will change the typo, thank you for spotting it buddy!
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Today’s lays:
Cecchinato
Carreno-Busta
Bolelli
JohnsonTypically these have performed better in the earlier rounds so interested to see how these go today.
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@ryan-carruthers just to double check on this, where it says huge value on ostapenko, I presume this is a typo and should read Stephens?
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@ryan-carruthers cheers Ryan, really appreciate it
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@mike-martin It’s done it! Here you go.....
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum. -
@mike-martin I’ll grab you them. I would get you them now but my WiFi on this train is so crap and it wont let me in my Evernote
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@ryan-carruthers Hi Ryan, where are the full rules you mentioned for these on the forum? Struggling to find them
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@simon same!
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@ryan-carruthers thanks, will be hitting the wta PJH today.
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@carl-roberts Massive ROI that!!
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No lays today although the 2 games at Newport not showing on the software. @Adam-Williams if you could please take a look that’d be great
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@simon Yes great stuff Simon,7 from 11 on the straight lays for me since Monday,68% ROI!!!!!!
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Today’s lays:
Muller
Mahut
Ebden
Lajovic3 out of 4 on the trades and 3 out of 4 on the straight lays. Great couple of days!
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@frode-lia and Mahut. 2 down 2 to go.
