2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
My trading plan for today:
I will back these players when they are one break or set down:
Safarova against Gavrilova
Rybarikova against StrycovaNB! Use the BTC calculator for correct staking.
Rybarikova breaks back and the trade is a win. Thats all for me tonight.
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@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Safarova
Safarova breaks back. First win.
Could have had 3-1 in this one if taken all the breaks. I just took the first in first set and first in second set. 1.64 pts green.
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@Ryan-Carruthers What do you think about Herbert later on?
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One win one loss, so in profit. Should have listened to @Ryan-Carruthers analysis of the Sugita match.
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Whole bunch of lays for Toronto today. This is an ATP 1000 event, so untested. Based on previous trends I’d not expect these to be profitable if straight laying, so I won’t be, I’ll just gather the info. I won’t manage to trade them either, it’s my wife’s birthday so will be out for a slap up meal! However there are 2 of the Lays which have piqued my interest as the elo shows the market has the wrong favourite by quite a margin, so I will place a straight lay on these selections:
Donaldson (Wrong fave)
Ivashka (Wrong Fave)
Ebden
Fuscovics
Verdasco
Edmund
Carreno-Busta
Coric -
Interesting one for me today...
4pm Sugita v Ivashka
On BTC forecast it looks as though Sugita is the better player, running it through my value sheet and knowing (Sugita) he is not the best player mentally which will play a part here - his form is dire but Ivashka is the value player for me - I won't be going straight off this though because Ivashka is broken 1st 76% of the time. I will be waiting till in the 1st set deep into it as well, I am aiming to back Ivashka but it will depend on the situation, so if the 1st set looks like its Sugita's then I will wait till the end of set one then back Ivashka - if its tight S1 and 4-4ish with Ivashka starting to use his height I will look to back at this point.
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My trading plan for today:
I will back these players when they are one break or set down:
Safarova against Gavrilova
Rybarikova against StrycovaNB! Use the BTC calculator for correct staking.
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@damon-heslop I’d certainly be interested in seeing the DW PJH’s for my picks if you were happy to share them. Totally up to you as it’s a service you’re paying for. I’m a stat/data freak so it interests me
Great win on Fognini! What will we do when he retires!?Okay, I'll try and post them up when you've put your picks on here. Be interesting to note the outcomes! Nothing stands out in today's crappy finals, although Zverev looks a wee bit on the short side (1.25 on the model - 1.18 lay on BF). Might just try a few cheap lays if he goes a break up.
ETA: Don't even know why De Minaur bothered turning up. Completely and utterly destroyed.
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@damon-heslop I’d certainly be interested in seeing the DW PJH’s for my picks if you were happy to share them. Totally up to you as it’s a service you’re paying for. I’m a stat/data freak so it interests me
Great win on Fognini! What will we do when he retires!? -
Wow. He just did a backhand lob over Del Po. Taking the p**s now! Clearly more up for this than the Argentine.
ETA: A set and break up now!
ETAA: Wins in straights! Foggers on Fire.
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Just made one of my biggest tennis profits, BACKING Fognini........ Speadsheet had Del Potro rated at 1.41, whereas he started at 1.26 on Betfair. Del Po went a break up, so I laid him for a pretty significant sum at 1.13 (with a view to scratching at the end of the set). Foggers breaks back and takes the set. Foggers is THE MAN! Even with the ridiculous dreadlocks he's now sporting, which, presumably, he's done for a bet...
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@damon-heslop said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Quiet day so number crunching the straight lays
ATP 250 (Grass and Clay) - ROI 57%
ATP 250 (Hard) - ROI -52%
ATP 500 (Grass and Clay) - ROI 1%
ATP 500 (Hard) - ROI -62%Safe to say Hard to be avoided. Shame we’re entering hard court season! Don’t have the stats for trading on hard court as have only managed a couple due to the time difference.
It's a miniscule data sample, so not very relevant, however this is why I was questioning the BTC PJH data. I follow Dan Weston's PJH data and many of the losing lays you highlighted were actually winning positions for me. The reason being, Dan's PJH takes into account court surface and both players' last 12 months' performances on it, hence the massive differential between the two. Unless I'm mistaken? This is why I've been wary of using the BTC data. Over what period has it been calculated and, more importantly, has it taken into account both players' results on the respective surfaces over that period?
ETA: Frode: Is there a reason you switched from Dan's data to BTCs?
@Damon-Heslop > So I assume you find Dan Weston’s stats to be more accurate? I’ve never used them but would be interested to compare them to BTC.
I've only been using his spreadsheets for a month, but all the value picks have been back-tested and show an average ROI between 3-5% depending on whether ATP/WTA. The PJH obviously has an impact on price, so if there are differences between his model and the BTC software, I'm in a quandary as to which is more accurate (especially with me being a stat-freak). I was gonna start posting his PJHs for your picks, just to provide a different perspective, but don't want to potentially steer other members away from profitable trades! If people want me to, I will.
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@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
My trading plan for today:
I will trade the end game between Klizan v Istomin. I will lay the first player to reach 1.1 with a stake, aiming to green up @ 1.2. I will double up @ 1.05 aiming to green up @ 1.1
Took the price @ 1.07 after Klizans break in second set. Took profit @ 1.14. 1 pt win.
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My trading plan for today:
I will trade the end game between Klizan v Istomin. I will lay the first player to reach 1.1 with a stake, aiming to green up @ 1.2. I will double up @ 1.05 aiming to green up @ 1.1
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@damon-heslop said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Quiet day so number crunching the straight lays
ATP 250 (Grass and Clay) - ROI 57%
ATP 250 (Hard) - ROI -52%
ATP 500 (Grass and Clay) - ROI 1%
ATP 500 (Hard) - ROI -62%Safe to say Hard to be avoided. Shame we’re entering hard court season! Don’t have the stats for trading on hard court as have only managed a couple due to the time difference.
It's a miniscule data sample, so not very relevant, however this is why I was questioning the BTC PJH data. I follow Dan Weston's PJH data and many of the losing lays you highlighted were actually winning positions for me. The reason being, Dan's PJH takes into account court surface and both players' last 12 months' performances on it, hence the massive differential between the two. Unless I'm mistaken? This is why I've been wary of using the BTC data. Over what period has it been calculated and, more importantly, has it taken into account both players' results on the respective surfaces over that period?
ETA: Frode: Is there a reason you switched from Dan's data to BTCs?
@Damon-Heslop Hi Damon, I’ve no idea how the PJH stats are calculated on the BTC software so can’t help you there. Completely agree, I appreciate this is a very small sample size, I’ve stressed that many times before in previous posts, I won’t trust these until I have A LOT more data on them. I’m fairly new to trading so for me it’s been as much an education as to how the markets work and how to attempt devise a profitable system (data collection, analysis, filtering etc.) I just thought I’d post about the hard court results as it’s been a noticeable nose dive and an obvious reason why. These were ticking along very nicely and then all of a sudden on Hard they perform terribly, so thought it was a trend worth pointing out. I know people on the forum have been following these so wanted to make them aware to maybe avoid the Hard court games for now at least
So I assume you find Dan Weston’s stats to be more accurate? I’ve never used them but would be interested to compare them to BTC. -
@damon-heslop said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Dan
I still subsribe to Dans service, and will continue to do so after my year sub runs out. All respect for that guy.
The reason I started to use BTC is:
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Convince: I do all my research between 06:00 to 08:00 (local time) every morning. The email from Dan usually comes around 10:00.
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Results: After testing it for a little while, I decided to try it during French Open. And especially on WTA the results where very good. My experience is that the numbers is pretty consistent for both WTA and ATP. (with results I dont necessary winning trades, but that you get a sence of what the numbers says, is also what you see on court).
But as I understand it, we are talkiing about straight bets here, and that is another ball game? When I lay a player @ 1.05, with lets say 65% PJH, I feel pretty safe that it will spark up to 1.1
- All in one place: This is maybe not that important, but I just like to have all my trading stats in one place. Decluttering so to speak.
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
Quiet day so number crunching the straight lays
ATP 250 (Grass and Clay) - ROI 57%
ATP 250 (Hard) - ROI -52%
ATP 500 (Grass and Clay) - ROI 1%
ATP 500 (Hard) - ROI -62%Safe to say Hard to be avoided. Shame we’re entering hard court season! Don’t have the stats for trading on hard court as have only managed a couple due to the time difference.
It's a miniscule data sample, so not very relevant, however this is why I was questioning the BTC PJH data. I follow Dan Weston's PJH data and many of the losing lays you highlighted were actually winning positions for me. The reason being, Dan's PJH takes into account court surface and both players' last 12 months' performances on it, hence the massive differential between the two. Unless I'm mistaken? This is why I've been wary of using the BTC data. Over what period has it been calculated and, more importantly, has it taken into account both players' results on the respective surfaces over that period?
ETA: Frode: Is there a reason you switched from Dan's data to BTCs?
