2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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This week's menu includes a WTA500 in Qatar which has just started and the first of two weeks in Mexico, where Raducanu is the top seed.
Got my eye on Bencic, Kostyuk and Pegula matches for lay 1st set winner.
With regards to Raducanu she needs to win a few matches and get some confidence, people need to realise especially the press she has not played in any of these tournaments before and to give her time. That said she should win the 1st round against Daria Saville (Gavrila) but after that who knows.
ATP are also in Mexico as well as Dubai and Chile
Dubai and Qatar timings may be tricky fo me to trade but the others should have evening matches UPK time
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A few years ago when she had that good run to the French final and win. That year I had a few good bets on her then lost most of the matches I picked the year or so after.
But she had a good match the other night watched that one. Bouchard was another one that I've been burnt with over the years
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See what I mean? Can never write her off.
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I'm fast becoming a huge Ostapenko fan. Winning me loads. Never gives up.
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This is a filter I was using last year as a guide more than anything else will bring back into use and analyse more from next week. I'll also compare with @Martin 's filter.
Works fine on WTA matches but men's stats distorted by slams being best of five sets.
I use the tennis stats to look at more just before matches start, especially the Won first set lost 2nd stats and vice versa, anything above 40% is usually worth looking at. The stats are great, problem with the filter's is it only brings up the result of one of the players so you need to delve into them more anyway
For me my game selection is more on waht's happened in the first set. If a favourite has lost the first set then would potentially go for it. Would have been a bad day yesterday in WTA matches 5 favourites lost of which 3 lost in straight sets. Also based alot on feel as to what happened in the first set and knowledgs of the players.
Take today's WTA line up for example: -
Kvitova v Ostapenko - Kvitova wins 1st set I'll leave alone Osta wins I'll be laying her she is wildly inconsistent, one service game she is unbeatable next one can barely look like she knows how to hold a tennis racket.
Both the Teichmann and Vonrousova matches are games where all four players are ranked between 40 and 100, there is very little difference in ability, I would in all likelihood lay the first set winner in both matches unless there are any fitness questions or motivation issues which there shouldn't be for these four as with most of the top seeds having already been knocked out it is a good opportunity to win a tournament.
Halep v Jabeur I can't call at the minute, Halep dropped down the rankings lately and this is Jabeur's first tournament of the season after injury
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@chris-osborne Thanks Chris, that's brilliant. I might have to watch a few to get a feel of how it works. Are there any certain filter criteria you look for in your selections or is it knowledge of the sport? I know there is already a profitable members filter but wondered if that could be tweaked?
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Yeah something I'll be looking into more. It's been my strat this year lay low.
Busta has had a good record against fogini and busta very good on clay last year only losing 4 in the surface against some good players too. Be looking to get into a trade if possible
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@chris-osborne Really helpful guide on how to handle this strategy and all the various aspects of it - just what I was looking for having started to follow Martins filter and use small stakes. Thank you.
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Shocking day mainly from favourites not being intersted and all losing matches easily they should have won at a canter - Mertens, Azarenka and Badosa
Mertens serve is not competitive and she won't get any higher than her mid 20's ranking, I expect to see a quick decline in ranking position. In my opinion she needs to forget about singles and focus on doubles where she's ranked in top two or three.
Its time for Azarenka to retire, Badosa should never lose to Ruse but she was struggling with a shoulder injury
Cut my losses early on no more trading today and won;t be anything tomorrow as got to go into the office
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Lay First Set Strategy
Speaking to @Dan Mackinnon yesterday promised I would show my Lay First Set Strategy - Any more experienced tennis traders feel free to add as necessary.
He's looking at automating @Martin's LFS strategy on Fairbot which if can be done would be good, Martin's strategy exits at the end of the second set, not sure on the success rate as I look to exit or remove liability earlier especially in WTA matches and ATP on Clay where plenty of breaks are common.
What We're Looking For
Player who lost first set to get the first break in second and then preferably hold there next service game. Depending on the players involved, I wold remove 50% liablity on the Break and then the rest on the service hold.
Entry Point
Lay player who won the first set before they serve for the first time im the second set for two pts liability - this value is rarely at risk as liability will be removed . If there not serving the first game I would wait to enter, if they break immediately this will give us better odds. Set and a break up is an excellent entry point.
Game Selection
Two things I'm looking out for: -
Strong favourite loses 1st set
Close and competitive 1st set with breaks of serve
I rarely enter if lay price is above 1.6Exit Points
Remove 50% liability if our player gets the first break
Remove 50% liabikity if our player also holds next service gameI'm generally aiming for around 1pt profit if ok with profit when liability removed I will hedge at this point. For WTA matches, will be more cautious as there are more breaks of serve, if not confident they will hold serve I will cash out on the break
If don't cash out when liability removed make sure you cash out at the end of the 2nd set
If there's no break of serve at 4-4 I will cash out for a small loss.
The worse case scenario is if the player we're opposing breaks first, in which case I will be quite strict here and if our player doesn't break back immediately cash out for around 1pts loss, a double break against us will lead to full liability being lost which we need to avoid.
I've made the mistake in the past of staying in too long suffering full losses which I am now looking to avoid
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Decent Day yesterday with just over 4pts profit. At one stage was sitting just below six but Giorgi decided not to bother against Kvitova costing me a point.
Kasatkina v Swiatek -0.5Pts (Various Entry Points)
Garcia v Krejikova +1.92 Pts (Laid Krej 5-4 Serving for Match)
Gauff v Pegula +1.3 Pts (Lay 1st Set Winner)
Eubanks v Kwon +2.2 Pts (Lay 1st Set Winner)
Molcan V Connell +0.8Pts (Lay 1st Set Winner)
Kvitova v Giorgi - 1.4Pts (Lay 1st Set Winner)0.8pts on Begu v Yastremska this morning - few decent WTA games today, will also probably look at this evenings ATP tournaments in Delray Beach and Rio
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Not had chance to do anything since Tuesday but 8pts profit for the week think I'll move onto next week.
Monday and tuesday off WTA in Dubai and four ATP tournaments all over the world
Hopefully work pressures will reduce for a few weeks so can get more involved
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Four pts profit on three trades will do me for today.
Two lay first set winner trades in the Sasnovich and Vondrousova matches and laid Peterson at 4-0 in the first she lost in straight sets to Petkovic.
Double break up in the first set is pretty much an auto entry point for me in wta. Very little risk as price already pretty much at end of set prices. Serving at 5-4 is another useful scenario for similar reasons
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WTA players doing the usual twice this week in very few matches I’ve seen a player come back from double break down
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Bencic decides to wait until I've cashed out at 4+4 in the second set to lose her next two service games - very inconsiderate
Switched to the ATP in Cordoba laid Vedasco v Dellian - 100 place variance in rankings and Verdasco took the first - Dellian broke to go 5-3 and served out the set. He then broke in the first game of the final set - not something I usually do but took a bit of the profit and laid him to try and get a bit more.
Verdasco breaks back next game that will do me for that match 3pts profit on the day
