2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Today’s lays St Petersburg. Some confusion over timings, the stats software and flash score have most of these games scheduled for Tuesday but Betfair shows them as today, so will include them all just in case:
Wawrinka (250)
Berrettini (250)
Kukushkin (250)
Rublev (250)
Medvedev (250) -
@simon looking forward to having them back!
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Whole ton of potential ATP 250 lays tomorrow
will double check prices in the morning before posting! So good to have them back! -
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@caio-schumacher
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum. -
@frode-lia Looking good, this one!
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My trading plan for today:
I will back Lepchenko against Parmentier when a break or set down. Stop loss after a double break.
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@frode-lia very well played!
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@frode-lia said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
My trading plan for today:
I will back Jabeur against Petula when a break or set down. Stopp loss if double break down.
Win: 0.82 pts green.
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My trading plan for today:
I will back Jabeur against Petula when a break or set down. Stopp loss if double break down.
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@ryan-carruthers Yes, she one the set after two breaks down. But, follow the plan
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@frode-lia She's one of my favs!!
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Backing Puig @ 1.63
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No lays this week at all. Davis cup this weekend which I will avoid then some lovely ATP 250 events next week to get stuck into!
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@simon was just gna say - can't get better than that!
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@simon said in Tennis Trading Thread 2018:
No Lays today either using the forecast stats although I do fancy a lay of Nadal. Nadal has had a tougher tournament and had more time on court than Del Potro who has had a fairly easy run to the semi's only dropping 1 set. I reckon a lay of Nadal will yield profit at some point in this match.
That was quick
