2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Today’s lays:
Dzumhur
Kukushkin
Chung
Jaziri
Daniel
Tsonga
De Minaur
CopilSo good to have the 250's back! I haven't managed to get on them all so far but currently 3 winners, 1 loser and 1 small win at 4-4. Straight lays 3 wins, 1 loss and Daniel going a set down.
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A rare losing trade on Chung!! Maybe coming back into some form.
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Today’s lays:
Dzumhur
Kukushkin
Chung
Jaziri
Daniel
Tsonga
De Minaur
Copil -
@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
ATP 250 is back! Today’s lays:
Bedene (250)
Jarry (250)
Pospisil (250)1 win, 1 loss and 1 small win at 4-4 today. Back on track!
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ATP 250 is back! Today’s lays:
Bedene (250)
Jarry (250)
Pospisil (250) -
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@gary-finnigan Love it, well played buddy!
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First time I tried this on the zhang / kerkhove match.
Set 1 was dominated by zhang so no option to trade, but set 2 kerkhove broke to go 3-1 up , so I backed zhang at 1.14. Zhang broke back to 4-3 so I hedged with odds of 1.1 . To give a profit of 3.6%. Should I have waited for zhang to win her serve aswell as odds would have went down to 1.07 giving a profit of 6.2%? -
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@rob-lawton
Yes, home with the flue, so only managed 1 trade today.
But well done. This strategy is pretty consistence over all tournaments.
One tip; check for injuries and form also, not go blindly with the stats. The stats should always just be the basis for further looks.
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Thanks both, had some great success on the selections so far!
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@rob-lawton That is correct.
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@rob-lawton No worries at all matey, I'll paste the rules below
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum. -
@ryan-carruthers Just to clarify Ryan (as I missed Frode’s original thread)
You back the player with the higher projected hold if they get broken? That’s right isn’t it?As an example, Alexandrova just got broke so I layed Siniakova. Alexandrova just broke back so now I’m in profit!
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@simon Sod's law!
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Interesting - if you'd straight laid all favourites at Shanghai so far blindly you'd be 12 points in profit which makes the poor performance of the lays so strange! The stats seem to be picking out the only dogs which are losing!
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@ryan-carruthers said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon Yep stick to ATP 250 buddy, don't be wiping out profits - might be worth just a data track exercise on them for others just to confirm - but it's also getting close to a strange part of the season, winding it down now.
@Ryan-Carruthers yeah absolutely, taken a big enough hit already, time to put on the brakes.
