2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Nothing taking my fancy today.
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Looking at another value pick today, and going back to the well with Isner for the following reasons:
Elo model has him priced at 2.57 (3.4 on BF currently)
Zverev looked completely jaded in second set vs Djokovic
Zverev has hit over 30 unforced errors in both games at the tour finals so far
He complained AGAIN after his defeat to Djokovic about fatigue and the length of the season and that he hasn't felt 100% for a couple of months now, so I have to question his motivation.
Isner can qualify with a straight set win here.
He's quoted as saying "I'm going to come out fired up" so clearly has motivations to win this game.Reasons to be cautious
Isners poor record against top 10 opposition (lost 8 in a row)
Zverev has won 8 from 9 when priced 1.2 - 1.49
Again it's all down to the Isner serve, so if it isn't on song, he won't do much.
Zverev leads 5-1 in the H2H.My main angle on this trade is the motivation of the 2 players and the odds. The 2 men seem to be coming at the game from a completely different mental perspective. Zverev sulky, Isner fired up. I'm only going to risk 0.5 pts on this trade as i'm not as confident on it as the previous ones this week, but I think it's worth a play for sure. Again, watch the opening exchanges for signs of motivation and to make sure Isners serve is firing.
Also worth noting is Isners friend and ex fitness coach died in the past 48 hours, so this may fire him up more, or affect him negatively.Scratch trade. Backed Isner at 3.25 at 1-1 in S1. Isner serve was looking good and Zverev hitting a couple of unforced errors and looking a bit sulky (although I think he maybe always does). As set went on both players serve started to dominate and a TB looked likely. Isner got a BP at 5-6 but couldn’t convert. Decided to exit trade before TB for scratch as Zverev's service stats were better than Isners, so I fancied him to take the TB and didn't want to risk any money on it. This trade almost came off, but nothing lost.
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Looking at another value pick today, and going back to the well with Isner for the following reasons:
Elo model has him priced at 2.57 (3.4 on BF currently)
Zverev looked completely jaded in second set vs Djokovic
Zverev has hit over 30 unforced errors in both games at the tour finals so far
He complained AGAIN after his defeat to Djokovic about fatigue and the length of the season and that he hasn't felt 100% for a couple of months now, so I have to question his motivation.
Isner can qualify with a straight set win here.
He's quoted as saying "I'm going to come out fired up" so clearly has motivations to win this game.Reasons to be cautious
Isners poor record against top 10 opposition (lost 8 in a row)
Zverev has won 8 from 9 when priced 1.2 - 1.49
Again it's all down to the Isner serve, so if it isn't on song, he won't do much.
Zverev leads 5-1 in the H2H.My main angle on this trade is the motivation of the 2 players and the odds. The 2 men seem to be coming at the game from a completely different mental perspective. Zverev sulky, Isner fired up. I'm only going to risk 0.5 pts on this trade as i'm not as confident on it as the previous ones this week, but I think it's worth a play for sure. Again, watch the opening exchanges for signs of motivation and to make sure Isners serve is firing.
Also worth noting is Isners friend and ex fitness coach died in the past 48 hours, so this may fire him up more, or affect him negatively. -
@ryan-carruthers yeah been a good week so far
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@simon Another cracker yesterday my friend!!
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Nothing from me today. The Thiem Vs Nishikori game anything could happen, neither player can be trusted in my opinion after the last performances they put in, and although I think Federer looks a touch of value at 1.45, Anderson is in great form, and Federer has been up and down, so again, one to give a pass for me. No strong opinion on either.
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
More value today, I think Isner at 2.8 looks a good price against Cilic for the following reasons:
ELO model has Isner priced at 2.1
The career H2H is 3-7 Cilic but Isner has won 3 of the last 4, including a straight sets win on Hard in Miami earlier this year.
Cilic recent form and inability to close out matches. He was a break up vs Zverev on Monday in each set and lost 2-0.
Cilic hit 46 unforced errors versus Zverev
Cilic poor record at the world tour finals (only 1 win).Reasons to be cautious
Cilic is the class player of the 2 and if Isners serve isn't firing he could be in trouble.
Isner has lost his last 7 games against top 10 opposition
Cilic has won 8 of last 9 when priced as favourite between 1.5-1.99With the way Cilic is currently playing, he seems incapable of converting when it matters. I see this being a tight first set with 2 big serves on show, and then the pressure of a 1st set TB could be too much for him again. Cilic has actually had 9 TB's in his last 10 games and only won 3 of them. So the play here is to make sure Isners serve is firing before getting involved. I actually had a cheeky pre match trade over night and backed Isner at 3.05 (apologies for the after timing) so if the price comes in more, I may just remove my liability and let this run out.
Winning trade. The first set played out as expected, 2 big serves on top and the Cilic didn't disappoint by displaying his mental weakness. Almost broken at 5-4 when serving to stay in the set, and then losing the TB. I'll often come out of a trade before the TB as it can be a bit of a lottery but was happy to stay in this time and drip some of my liability out as it went on, and reaped the reward.
One downside to this trade is i was overly cautious in entering it. Isners first service game went to deuce, and although he held i wanted to see more, so missed my target entry of about 2.84 and ended up getting in at 2.6. Because of this i staked less, so didn't get as much out the trade as i could have which was a bit disappointing.
In at 2.6, out at 1.49 for almost exactly 1 pt profit. -
I love it when a plan comes together
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
More value today, I think Isner at 2.8 looks a good price against Cilic for the following reasons:
ELO model has Isner priced at 2.1
The career H2H is 3-7 Cilic but Isner has won 3 of the last 4, including a straight sets win on Hard in Miami earlier this year.
Cilic recent form and inability to close out matches. He was a break up vs Zverev on Monday in each set and lost 2-0.
Cilic hit 46 unforced errors versus Zverev
Cilic poor record at the world tour finals (only 1 win).Reasons to be cautious
Cilic is the class player of the 2 and if Isners serve isn't firing he could be in trouble.
Isner has lost his last 7 games against top 10 opposition
Cilic has won 8 of last 9 when priced as favourite between 1.5-1.99With the way Cilic is currently playing, he seems incapable of converting when it matters. I see this being a tight first set with 2 big serves on show, and then the pressure of a 1st set TB could be too much for him again. Cilic has actually had 9 TB's in his last 10 games and only won 3 of them. So the play here is to make sure Isners serve is firing before getting involved. I actually had a cheeky pre match trade over night and backed Isner at 3.05 (apologies for the after timing) so if the price comes in more, I may just remove my liability and let this run out.
In at 2.94 and out at 2.25 for 2.4 points profit, thanks @Simon
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@simon Defo!!!
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@ryan-carruthers @Chris-Watts or when you up stakes!!
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@chris-watts it is the unwritten rule matey, you share something it always looses the first day! Always happens with me too!
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@chris-watts haha yeah, it’s a hit to the ego for sure! But I always think you get out of something what you put in, and like you say, posting up your watchlists has improved your trading and made sure you got more out the community which is what it’s all about
Makes you analyze losing trades more too which is also a good thing.
Good work mate, look forward to following that. -
@simon I know what you mean, that is essentially why I started doing it too. I've been a member of the community for a year or so and thought long and hard about starting to post my stuff up. In the end I settled on there being many more positives to it than negatives. I'd be lying if I didnt say that i feel a slight extra bit of nerves though when i post something and then the exact opposite happens! I think my very first post was a full 5 point loss
I felt like a right numpty! haha.Keep going though man, i'm feeling the benefit in lots of ways, more thought, less impulsive decisions, more chat with members, feel like im getting more from the membership now too. Next up on my agenda is to post some info about my go pro plan...
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@chris-watts cheers bud! Felt inspired after your football write ups
Also writing my thoughts and plan down for all to see really makes me double and triple check the detail in there through fear of looking stupid
so less likely to miss something that way. -
@simon Love these!
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@simon
Excellent detailed write up buddy, looking really good this one. I really like the granular level - the key here for me is the spot of Cilic not converting when it matters which allows us to really get a feel for the thought process behind this trade and also when you get in and out as well.
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More value today, I think Isner at 2.8 looks a good price against Cilic for the following reasons:
ELO model has Isner priced at 2.1
The career H2H is 3-7 Cilic but Isner has won 3 of the last 4, including a straight sets win on Hard in Miami earlier this year.
Cilic recent form and inability to close out matches. He was a break up vs Zverev on Monday in each set and lost 2-0.
Cilic hit 46 unforced errors versus Zverev
Cilic poor record at the world tour finals (only 1 win).Reasons to be cautious
Cilic is the class player of the 2 and if Isners serve isn't firing he could be in trouble.
Isner has lost his last 7 games against top 10 opposition
Cilic has won 8 of last 9 when priced as favourite between 1.5-1.99With the way Cilic is currently playing, he seems incapable of converting when it matters. I see this being a tight first set with 2 big serves on show, and then the pressure of a 1st set TB could be too much for him again. Cilic has actually had 9 TB's in his last 10 games and only won 3 of them. So the play here is to make sure Isners serve is firing before getting involved. I actually had a cheeky pre match trade over night and backed Isner at 3.05 (apologies for the after timing) so if the price comes in more, I may just remove my liability and let this run out.
