2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@ryan-carruthers Cheers ryan
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Not seeing much to pique my interest tonight/tomorrow. Next days card looks better at first glance.
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Cor last night they made us work for it didn't they!!
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@charles-cartwright haha DOBS get my heart racing way more than tennis! Just what you’re used to I guess.
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@simon
Followed you guys on Karlovic but he made me sweat bullets before I could escape with a profit. Not sure I like tennis!!! Too stressful.
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In the Kyrgios vs Raonic game I’ll be looking for opportunities where the server is 0-30 or 15-40 down and then back them.
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers yeah delving deeper i'm not too keen on Zverev anymore, he has no form at all to speak of. However really keen on opposing Chardy. I make him about 1.9 current BF price is 1.62.
If you look at recent form in 5 set matches, Chardy lost 4 of last 5, Humbert has won 4 of last 5. Humbert has also won 4 of last 5 when price 2-2.9. The stats really back this up too, Humbert more impressive Hold and break %'s than Chardy, although a smaller sample size, but there is a marked difference. Chardy can be erratic and inconsistent too, so i'll be looking for signs of Humbert looking comfortable and solid before getting involved.
Haha i'd be doing the same if i didn't have a day job!Greening up on Humbert
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@simon it’s horrid though this time of year - coffee on IV matey.
Love the reasoning and the stats back it up, I agree on the pricing as well you are bang on with where I was with it.
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@ryan-carruthers yeah delving deeper i'm not too keen on Zverev anymore, he has no form at all to speak of. However really keen on opposing Chardy. I make him about 1.9 current BF price is 1.62.
If you look at recent form in 5 set matches, Chardy lost 4 of last 5, Humbert has won 4 of last 5. Humbert has also won 4 of last 5 when price 2-2.9. The stats really back this up too, Humbert more impressive Hold and break %'s than Chardy, although a smaller sample size, but there is a marked difference. Chardy can be erratic and inconsistent too, so i'll be looking for signs of Humbert looking comfortable and solid before getting involved.
Haha i'd be doing the same if i didn't have a day job! -
@simon I nearly looked at the M. Zverev one as thought that looked under priced too!
Crazy times these games, I'll be trying to get some kip soon and then up later.
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@ryan-carruthers I really like Karlovic here too, especially if he keeps up his early season form. I won't be trading that one though as due to go off at 00:00. I try to focus on the games which will be starting later on as I am more likely to be up to trade them, helps narrow it down when there's so many on.
Players I like the look of based on price are Krajinovic Vs Cecchninato, Kukushkin Vs Pouille (as you detailed below). Humbert Vs Chardy and M. Zverev vs Popyrin I think look under priced too. Will delve deeper, but this is my shortlist for starters. -
Sharing my thoughts….. on the mens matches, might not be involved in all of these but this is my thoughts on the mens side tonight…
Fratangelo (BF 4.3 / Me 3.10) v Simon (BF 1.28 / Me 1.48)
Frat leads the H2H between these two albeit it on clay and this is a different surface and the ball reacts differently but he has potential against the old dog here. Frat’s game is suited to the hard court, he likes to serve hard and heavy and really use that where to be honest with Simon he can be all over I have never really been a fan.
Value on Frat for me, let them both have a serve and if they both hold and Frat looks good for it then I will be having a back on him.
Karlovic (BF 1.72 / 1.21) v Hurkacz (BF 2.36 / Me 5.75)
Like the look of this one, Karlo is a player who this surface will suit (serve and volley) he hits the ball very hard and flat when on form which makes him a tough player to come up against. Hurkacz is a the young big server who will need to be on fire to beat the experienced older head here. I will let them both have a serve then look to back Karlovic if they both hold and Karlo is showing signs on imposing his game onto he younger Hurkacz.
Other noteable things to look out….
Pouille - he is shocking at the Oz open his record going back isn’t that great either with 1-6 W/L matches record! I won’t be trading this one, but might have some opportunities to lay him if he takes the lead or wins the first set - current price is 1.57, if he wins the first set that should get down to around 1.14 so low liability lay there.
Little bit of value on Sousa v Pella - value on Sousa but either player are not screaming out to me to trade, the form is pretty bad which put me off:
Pella
Lost 4/5 in Oz
Lost 4/5 on hard court
Lost 4/5 and Oz Open
Lost 5 in a row when priced as the dogSousa
Lost 4/5 when playing a leftie
Won 4 in a row when priced as favSousa for me isn’t the strongest mentally either.
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Cilic (BF 1.27 Me 1.36) v Tomic (BF 4.5 Me 3.8)
Cilic leads the H2H 2-1 but they were a while ago and the last match was 2015 which Tomic won, Cilic has been dealing with a knee issue will that surface again in this match?
Tomic will have the support of the home crowd and that could be a huge addition to his game, Tomic is a big serving Aussie, he is a clever player who has a wicked slice.
Cilic again another big server, attacking player who is pretty cool under pressure - one of his skills which is not often spoken about is his return of serve which will be crucial here I think.
I have priced this game up with value on Tomic, I will let the match start and then if they both hold their own serve and Tomic is looking on it I will have a small back of Tomic. I will be out towards the end of the first set if Tomic is doing well - if Tomic gets broken I will take a red.
This game is likely to be decided via who returns better, if they are both on form for their serve it will be a close encounter.
