2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon Kerber looks like in form.
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@simon I will back Hsieh S-W. and Kerber when a break down today. Will also maybe back
De Minaur A. if he loses first set. -
No lays today. Berdych and Djokovic both qualify but I don’t touch SF or finals as they don’t perform as well.
Not seeing much value today either, Tsonga’s price maybe looks slightly too big but I’m still not 100% sure where his form is yet after coming back from injury, so going to give that one a pass.
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@simon love that analysis
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Berdych
Like bogeying the 18th but finishing level par, loss on Berdych for a break even day.
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@simon Well played sir
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@simon said
Wawrinka
Back in business! Greening up after first game
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@mark sorry Mark, BPC = Break point converted. BPS = Break point saved. PJH = Projected hold. All these numbers are displayed as a percentage. So if PJH is 68%, they're forecast to hold serve 68% of the time. PJH takes into account the ability of the opponent on return which is why it is a stronger stat than just looking at historical hold percentages.
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@mark Hi Mark. The strat is using the the BTC forecast stats, I look for underdogs who have less than 1% less PJH, BPC and BPS (if they have stronger stats than the favourite then even better, but can't be any less than 1% in either.) I then lay the favourite just before the start of the match. I green up if the favourite is broken, i red out if the dog is broken, i will get out for a small green/red/scratch if it's 4-4 with no breaks, then onto the next one. A winning trade on average produces more profit than a losing trade losses, so around a 50% strike rate is enough to make money.
I did a lot of work on this last year and found it was most profitable at ATP 250 events because favourites seem to be less motivated at these smaller events. So i wouldn't use it at any other events.
Thanks for explaining @Simon I' m relatively new to tennis trading so assuming BPC is break point conceded, and BPS is break point scored? Not sure what PJH is....
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@mark Hi Mark. The strat is using the the BTC forecast stats, I look for underdogs who have less than 1% less PJH, BPC and BPS (if they have stronger stats than the favourite then even better, but can't be any less than 1% in either.) I then lay the favourite just before the start of the match. I green up if the favourite is broken, i red out if the dog is broken, i will get out for a small green/red/scratch if it's 4-4 with no breaks, then onto the next one. A winning trade on average produces more profit than a losing trade losses, so around a 50% strike rate is enough to make money.
I did a lot of work on this last year and found it was most profitable at ATP 250 events because favourites seem to be less motivated at these smaller events. So i wouldn't use it at any other events.
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@Simon Hi mate, could you explain more about this 250 strategy you're using?
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@frode-lia yeah this is something I’ve been wondering for a while as it worked so well on clay and the switch to hard made a huge difference in the results. So maybe slower hard and clay are best.
It also did well on grass last year, which would dispel this theory, but that may just be variance as there were so few grass tournaments. -
@simon Could it be that the strat works best on medium slow and slow surface? Like in Doha?
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Dimitrov and Nishikori showing some great tennis right now in Brisbane.
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Tough spotting any value today in the ATP. Reckon Simon price maybe looks slightly too big against Paire given the H2H (Simon won 6 of last 7) but not quite tempting enough for me. So on to the 250 lays. I’ve been trading them in Doha this week and they’ve been doing well. I was unsure how they’d get on so early in the season, but happy to share them now. I’m using half stakes though as a caution.
Wawrinka
Berdych -
@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Quick note on today’s card, seeing plenty of value in Basilashvili versus Rublev. On recent form I can’t see why the market has Rublev priced as favourite. Will be looking to back Basil if in play backs up my thoughts.
No trade on Basil either as he broke Rublev at first time of asking. I wait until both players have served before getting in on these. Frustrating day but nothing lost.
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@simon said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Quick note on today’s card, seeing plenty of value in Basilashvili versus Rublev. On recent form I can’t see why the market has Rublev priced as favourite. Will be looking to back Basil if in play backs up my thoughts.
Also like the price on Pella versus Cecchinato. The laters stats and form on outdoor hard are really poor, Pella should be much shorter.
Cecchinato gets a walkover so no trade there
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@frode-lia said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@frode-lia said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@frode-lia said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@frode-lia said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Watching Ebden v Ferrer in Hopman Cup. Hope to get a trade in second set.
Laying Ferrer with a half stake, and adding a half stake if he breaks Ebden again.
Ebden broke Ferrer, so greening up for now.
Laying Ferrer again with a half stake.
A little win in the end.
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@frode-lia said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@frode-lia said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
@frode-lia said in 2018 Tennis Trading Thread:
Watching Ebden v Ferrer in Hopman Cup. Hope to get a trade in second set.
Laying Ferrer with a half stake, and adding a half stake if he breaks Ebden again.
Ebden broke Ferrer, so greening up for now.
Laying Ferrer again with a half stake.
