2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Finally got somethng going, backed Osaka after she lost the first set, odds too high to lay Stephens at 1.9 - removed liability on 2nd break and hold then went to sleep - 1.1 pt win
Hopefully games will be better today with seeds entering should be more obvious entry points
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@chris-osborne nope
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Not happening today
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@andrew-camp I agree the games today should be full of three setters most of the games between players ranked below 50 the line up today didnt appeal as much as yesterday apart from Stephens v Ozaka
Seeds enter tomorrow, might just leave it today
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Too many one-sided matches so far in this event.
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Can someone tell the people I'm backing that there allowed to convert there break points - first Galfi now Boulter exited with another small loss
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Just the five breaks in the Boulter match from 9 games. Will lay Paolini on her next service game - Boulter serves first
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Thanks Chris
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Lay First Set Strategy
Speaking to @Dan Mackinnon yesterday promised I would show my Lay First Set Strategy - Any more experienced tennis traders feel free to add as necessary.
He's looking at automating @Martin's LFS strategy on Fairbot which if can be done would be good, Martin's strategy exits at the end of the second set, not sure on the success rate as I look to exit or remove liability earlier especially in WTA matches and ATP on Clay where plenty of breaks are common.
What We're Looking For
Player who lost first set to get the first break in second and then preferably hold there next service game. Depending on the players involved, I wold remove 50% liablity on the Break and then the rest on the service hold.
Entry Point
Lay player who won the first set before they serve for the first time im the second set for two pts liability - this value is rarely at risk as liability will be removed . If there not serving the first game I would wait to enter, if they break immediately this will give us better odds. Set and a break up is an excellent entry point.
Game Selection
Two things I'm looking out for: -
Strong favourite loses 1st set
Close and competitive 1st set with breaks of serve
I rarely enter if lay price is above 1.6Exit Points
Remove 50% liability if our player gets the first break
Remove 50% liabikity if our player also holds next service gameI'm generally aiming for around 1pt profit if ok with profit when liability removed I will hedge at this point. For WTA matches, will be more cautious as there are more breaks of serve, if not confident they will hold serve I will cash out on the break
If don't cash out when liability removed make sure you cash out at the end of the 2nd set
If there's no break of serve at 4-4 I will cash out for a small loss.
The worse case scenario is if the player we're opposing breaks first, in which case I will be quite strict here and if our player doesn't break back immediately cash out for around 1pts loss, a double break against us will lead to full liability being lost which we need to avoid.
I've made the mistake in the past of staying in too long suffering full losses which I am now looking to avoid
@kc post I made a few weeks ago
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I am laying first set winner in the Mackenzie vs Fucsovics game no real clue what I am doing just getting a feel for the markets, luckily it is going my way (emphasis on the luck)
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@chris-osborne Thanks I will keep the 40% in mind
