2022 Tennis Trading Thread
-
@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Acapulco
Zheng v Babos
Zheng looked awful yesterday. Only fell in again the Mexican qualifier Zarazua. BTC stats are strong for Babos so will let them have a serve then lay Zheng.
Popping my BTC prediction cherry so give strength :folded_hands:
Babos finds the break at 4-3. Greening @ $2.48.
-
@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Acapulco
Isner v Querrey
Looks to be some value for Querrey here. $1.96. He's been playing well, strong h2h & BTC stats are strong.
Will let them serve out and green out if gets a break. Scr if it gets to 6-6.
And he's been broken first game. No trade...
-
Acapulco
Isner v Querrey
Looks to be some value for Querrey here. $1.96. He's been playing well, strong h2h & BTC stats are strong.
Will let them serve out and green out if gets a break. Scr if it gets to 6-6.
Zheng v Babos
Zheng looked awful yesterday. Only fell in again the Mexican qualifier Zarazua. BTC stats are strong for Babos so will let them have a serve then lay Zheng.
Popping my BTC prediction cherry so give strength :folded_hands:
-
@ryan-carruthers strange game in the end ! 6-1 1-6 then decided in a TB.
-
@ryan-carruthers thanks Ryan. Definitely leaving this one alone then.
-
@simon I looked at this one as well and priced it up, I had the big Berdych as fav and value! I had him around 1.5ish, in fact I am having a little bit of this I think if they both hold their serves!
-
ATP Sao Paulo
22.30 Cuevas v Auger-Aliassime
Cuevas is the value player here for me. The surface suits him, he is a clever player as well who has good ground strokes, he does very well when he gets in the groove as well - I will let them both have a serve then look to back Cuevas.
I will be watching Auger closely though as he is an athletic player who is very talented and likes to attack his opponents shots and really get at them!
-
Really like the price on Coric vs Berdych, the stats alone would suggest Coric should be favourite, but current form just stopping me pulling the trigger on this one. Berdych been on great form this season and Coric hasn’t played much so hard to gauge where he’s at. Both have very good records at this tournament too, and the H2H holds no water for me as last game was 2016. So going to give this a pass unless anyone else can convince me otherwise? Would be interested to hear any opinions.
-
@col well played bud!
-
Today’s lays:
Pella
Munar
Mayer -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
1 lay today:
Ymer
Winner
Although I was tucked up in bed by the time it started so missed out. -
@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Acapulco
Kyrgios the tank engine is at it again against Seppi.
Traded at $1.06 4-1 in the second and seems to have lost his way. Talking to himself and looks bothered by his knee.
He looks like he is actually trying today but he'll need a minor miracle to regroup in this second set.
He hung on! Got out to $1.80 before Seppi dropped his serve at 6-5.
-
Acapulco
Kyrgios the tank engine is at it again against Seppi.
Traded at $1.06 4-1 in the second and seems to have lost his way. Talking to himself and looks bothered by his knee.
He looks like he is actually trying today but he'll need a minor miracle to regroup in this second set.
-
This post is deleted!
-
@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
WTA Acapulco
Gavrilova v Buzarnescu
Two players struggling for form big time. Looks like there could be more breaks in this match than holds. Anyone have any strats for these types of WTA matches?
Ended up being 9 breaks of serve in this one. Gavrilova 0/6 break points saved
Is there a name for a match where there are more breaks in the game than holds? I think there should be !
-
@ryan-carruthers Hey Ryan When you guys say 'stop loss' do you actually use feature of a software to employ the 'stop loss' when it reaches a certain price or do you just exit the trade yourself once a certain event occurs?
-
@sean-fitzgerald Nope, just if they meet the stats etc...
-
@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@col Frode is the beast on WTA, he is away now though I think?
But this one does have a 3 points difference on the ratings on the stats software and fits Frode's WTA rules of which I have posted below.....
A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.
- I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
- I checked for injuries and so on.
- My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
- I would first let the players serve once each.
- On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
- Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
- Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
- Stephens won the match 2-1.
Rules for the strat is as follow:
Let both players serve once each.
Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.
Take profit after backed player goes up.
Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly thisJust a quick clarifying question. Is the strategy to only back the players with the higher PH if they are the underdog?
-
@simon Yep same for me nothing really screaming out to me at this stage.
-
Not spotting anything I like in the ATP yesterday or today (minus the lays of course). A lot of mis-matches in Dubai, hopefully we'll get better value as the tournament progresses.
