2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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ATP Buenos Aires
5.30pm
Schwartzman v Cecchinato
I love the look of this game, Cecc plays a great style of good ground strokes and is suited to the surface, he has a big serve so I am hoping that he uses that to its full potential today….. Schwartzman is a baseline player who loves to chip and charge…..
I price this one up with Cecchinato the value player, so I am going to let them both have a serve then look to back Cecchinato if they both hold their serve.
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@simon agree, value always plays out in the end, I took value through oz open and it didn't work out - stuck with it, back to winning ways
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Reckon Cecchinato looks way too short vs Pella in Buenos Aires this evening.
I’d have him as slight favourite, but not 1.5!
May be out this evening though, so if I can’t trade it, will back Pella for the win as I think there’s so much value in the price.Didn’t work out, 1pt loss. Would still have taken this trade every day of the week though as in the long term the value will come through.
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Reckon Cecchinato looks way too short vs Pella in Buenos Aires this evening.
I’d have him as slight favourite, but not 1.5!
May be out this evening though, so if I can’t trade it, will back Pella for the win as I think there’s so much value in the price. -
@simon cracking trading
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
2 small greens on yesterdays lays. The performance of these now the clay is back is night and day compared to the hard court season. There is another clay event starting on the 25th Feb in Sao Paulo then nothing until April, but that's when it starts to really ramp up.
Here's today's:
Munar
Win on Munar! 2 from 2 again.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
2 small greens on yesterdays lays. The performance of these now the clay is back is night and day compared to the hard court season. There is another clay event starting on the 25th Feb in Sao Paulo then nothing until April, but that's when it starts to really ramp up.
Here's today's:
Cecchinato
Winner on Cecch
Love the clay -
@makkadee If you use this on ATP 250 events only, but avoid indoor hard and don't trade semi finals or finals. Seems to work best on clay.
The strat is using the the BTC forecast stats, I look for underdogs who have less than 1% less PJH, BPC and BPS (if they have stronger stats than the favourite then even better, but can't be any less than 1% in either.) I then lay the favourite just before the start of the match. I green up if the favourite is broken, i red out if the dog is broken, i will get out for a small green/red/scratch if it's 4-4 with no breaks, then onto the next one. A winning trade on average produces more profit than a losing trade losses, so around a 50% strike rate is enough to make money.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@makkadee the BTC stats software has all the days ATP and WTA. Failing that use Betfair and navigate to tennis - today, or FlashScore has everything too.
As far as trading advice, I have a simple lay strategy that’s easy to follow, I will post selections later once I’ve had a look through the stats.
Thanks Simon. Looking forward to viewing your strategy(s)
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2 small greens on yesterdays lays. The performance of these now the clay is back is night and day compared to the hard court season. There is another clay event starting on the 25th Feb in Sao Paulo then nothing until April, but that's when it starts to really ramp up.
Here's today's:
Cecchinato
Munar -
@makkadee the BTC stats software has all the days ATP and WTA. Failing that use Betfair and navigate to tennis - today, or FlashScore has everything too.
As far as trading advice, I have a simple lay strategy that’s easy to follow, I will post selections later once I’ve had a look through the stats.
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Never traded tennis. But i'm going have a stab. What's the best web site for a list of daily fixtures?
Any advice for trading will be appreciated
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Todays lays:
Cuevas
Out at 4-4 for a small green! Thought we were gonna get the break in that last game there. Very close to another winner.
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@ryan-carruthers Yep just one of those days, would have gone for us another day. My strike rate on the value picks has been too good recently, I knew their would be a regression to the mean coming haha!
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@simon agree, he had one of those matches, couldn't capitalise could he!! Oh well cannot win them all.
He just couldn't close out at key points, on another day he would have.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
I think Kukushkin represents some value this morning vs Dzumhur at 1.95 (current BF price).
Two contrasting styles, Kuku's Service hold % on indoor hard over the past 12 months is 81.9%, Dzumhurs only 68.8%, but Dzumhur breaks opponents 29.3% of the time compared to Kuku at only 18.2%. If you add these together Kuku's total is 100.1 and Dzumhur is 98.1, so Kuku has 2% edge on these stats. This is a stat I always like to have on my side for a value trade.
The main risk here is Dzumhur is so inconsistent, can be a world beater on his day, but can also as easily crash and burn, so I will watch the opening exchanges, and if Kuku is looking solid, and Dzumhur not on one of those days, then i'll back Kuku.1.2 pt loss. Only lost 0.75 in the first set as managed to remove some liability when Kuku had a break point. Layed Dzumhur after set 1 and he broke Kuku first game in S2. Poor decision and led to another 0.46 pt loss. Not huge, but probably shouldn't have taken the second trade.
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@ryan-carruthers Kuku could do with upping his first serve % here, held every game to 30, but at least he's held.
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@simon I agree 100% with you here, Kuku for me is the value player here his stats are better and on my price model he is cracking value. I will be letting them both have a serve then looking to back Kuku if they both hold.
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ATP Rotterdam 7.30pm
Sarah will be waiting to go out tonight as this game is on!
Fucsovics v Basilashvili
I like the look of this game, I have Fucs as the value player here, he is good on the surface on the form he has recently makes me confident, I will let them both have a serve then look to back Fucs as his price of 1.84 appeals to me - if they both hold their first serves that is.
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I think Kukushkin represents some value this morning vs Dzumhur at 1.95 (current BF price).
Two contrasting styles, Kuku's Service hold % on indoor hard over the past 12 months is 81.9%, Dzumhurs only 68.8%, but Dzumhur breaks opponents 29.3% of the time compared to Kuku at only 18.2%. If you add these together Kuku's total is 100.1 and Dzumhur is 98.1, so Kuku has 2% edge on these stats. This is a stat I always like to have on my side for a value trade.
The main risk here is Dzumhur is so inconsistent, can be a world beater on his day, but can also as easily crash and burn, so I will watch the opening exchanges, and if Kuku is looking solid, and Dzumhur not on one of those days, then i'll back Kuku.
