2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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WTA Indian Wells
Gavrilova v Yastremska
Gavrilova off to a flyer taking first set 6-2.
Laying at $1.50.
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@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Indian Wells
Begu looking a great lay at $1.67 after taking first set tie breaker against Andreescu.
Broken in first game. Greening at $1.99.
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Indian Wells
Begu looking a great lay at $1.67 after taking first set tie breaker against Andreescu.
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@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
WTA Indian Wells
7pm Schmiedlova v Davis
--- Her opponent is the wild card, the crowd will be behind her she is a counter player who also doesn’t start fast.
How much weight do you give to 'crowd will be behind her'? how do you factor that in to your numbers?
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@col Think I will just watch and enjoy it!
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@ryan-carruthers no doubt
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WTA Indian Wells
7pm Schmiedlova v Davis
Looking at this one Betfair have it priced up very very close, which surprises me with Schmiedlova’s record here, well her form in the states in general - she plays from the baseline, she hits the ball hard and flat but she doesn’t start that well I have spotted. Her opponent is the wild card, the crowd will be behind her she is a counter player who also doesn’t start fast.
I am going to let them both have a serve if they both hold their own serve I will look to back Davis as I have her as the value player here.
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@col Yep, the crowd will so be behind Kenin here as well!
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@Ryan-Carruthers Wang v Kenin rematch at Indian Wells!
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@adam-szeluk no problem Adam. I just use this as a base to build an opinion on a game, I don’t take the probabilities as gospel
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@simon thanks a lot bud
Will give this a go, appreciate that. -
@adam-szeluk if you just type the name of each player into the boxes provided, tick 3 or 5 set game depending if it’s a slam or not, then it will give you the probability for each player.
You can then convert the probability to odds by taking the percentage number (so 60% would be 0.6) multiply that by 100. Then take that number (60) and do 1/60 which is 0.0167. Multiply this by 100 which gives you 1.67.
Some lower ranked players aren’t in the database. -
@simon if you could point me in the right direction on how to work this site I’d appreciate that
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@col I agree, that's why I tend to only trade him when I am sure and it's usually the other player I am backing lol
Tennis is very much play the opponent.
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@stuart-rozzier I wouldn't put too much importance on official player rankings to be honest (unless you can find an edge in them then great!). For example Laslo Djere jumped from the 70's into the 30's a couple of weeks ago when he won an incredibly weak ATP 500. I don't think anyone would argue that he is in the top 30 players in the world.
I use an elo ranking model rather than the official atp rankings when comparing players, as I feel it takes a lot more into account, and is also surface specific and tends to be a better indicator of future results, whereas the offical rankings are almost looking backwards if you know what I mean.(https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#system=tennis-men&rating1=4&rating2=38&best_of=5)
@Ryan-Carruthers put me onto this site and it's a great place to start when looking at the probability of the outcome of the match. -
@ryan-carruthers It does. I feel like you can really identify when he’s motivated and when he isn’t though. He’s often playing up but you still tell when he’s on or off. (I think..!
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@stuart-rozzier said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Hi....
Was reading the strategies page about lay the winner of first set.......
Does anyone use this regularly? Have you any figures on how it does? Have you added your own filters? Fancy helping a fellow member out?80)
Cheers
Stuart
Here are my general entries and exits in tennis, hopefully they can give you some guidance when you start practicing trading it.
Entry:
At start if the player you like is big underdog
At the end of first set if the favourite loses it and is now odds against
When a player on ATP tour is a double break up serving for the set – if they win the game their odds will not drop much further, esp if pre-match fav, however a point or two against them and a few ticks can be gained. This is virtually risk free because at the end of the set price on fav often rises as layers look to enter, so even if they win the game to love you may get scratch or one or two tick profit. Works especially well with weak server (Simon, Seppi etc).
When a favourite pre-match is a set and a break down and you know they are a fighter!
When market thinks a match is over – sub 1.1 or less with plenty of the match left (works better with closely matched players or when underdog hits sub 1.1)
In WTA when a player you want to lay is serving first, don’t lay if she is recieving first wait until your player holds!Exit:
End of a set – new set often means new motivations
When your player gets a break
When your player breaks and holds
Often I will get some liability out every time the odds swing in my favour drip backing my lay back -
@stuart-rozzier Hey buddy!
The thing with Tennis is that it is all about momentum, so a player could be really highly ranked ranked against somebody lower and be playing well with momentum and there's a chance there to trade, my thoughts are on it are to research players (unless just using the lay of the first set winner - as that's easier) on the BTC software you can use the forecast to see if they are close on the conversion, project hold and BPS and BPC this gives you an indicator on how they will fare in the match, which you can the watch the match and add it to what you are seeing.
On the lay of the first set winner I have a filter its Player WON S1 Lost Next Game > (greater than) 50%
Player WON S1 Lost Next 2 Games > (greater than) 0%This gives me players who have won the first set and then lose the first game in the second set 50% of the time or greater so I can lay these selections if they win the first set and then monitor the player throughout to see when to cut the trade short if needed.
Also watch this
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@col
Good analysis there to be fair on the Wang v Kenin one, I like both players. I actually agree Kenin has some lapses but I thought this would be the game where she would start well and it would give her confidence, the lapses came to soon - nothing lost nothing gained, the beauty of waiting till both players have served.
I didn't he isn't my favourite player in the world so I tend to only watch him if I am trading his matches. That is a mental price though?! The market expects him to implode though a lot lol
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@ryan-carruthers I was out with the kids so didn't get a chance to trade/watch it. I was following the scores closely though.
I actually thought Wang was a big price and was hoping to get a push from you. Kenin has a great game but watching her throughout the week I thought she was prone to some lapses. A couple of matches she started slowly, a couple she fell away when she was cruising. This is all anecdotally however, haven't delved into the stats.
Wang impressed me a lot. You put her on my radar and I was impressed with her all week and particularly with her last two sets against Vekic.
I'm telling you now after-the-fact though so not much use to us now... and I wasn't able to trade the match anyway.
Looking forward to Indian Wells this week though! Interested to see how Kyrgios backs up. As frustrating as he is as a human, he's in incredible tennis player to watch and trade.
Did you watch his final? His price was unbelievable. After the first set I think he was still something like $1.60. Then he broke early and got into maybe $1.30. Zverev broke back 2-1 on serve and Kyrgios was out to $1.80 with the first set in his pocket. Crazy pricing. It seemed like the market was against him all week which is very interesting.
