2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@col
1 Auger-Aliassime v RuudI liked this game and when @Simon made note of it, it was a definite trade game for me. I entered at 1-1 and backed Ruud. Ruud went down a break early but I stayed in and AA was broken in the next game. Ruud was always behind in the could and after 4 breaks of serve at 4-4, I decided to get out for a scratch. I just didn't like the way the match was going with all the breaks. Especially given if Ruud had been broken again, AA would've been serving for the set. Ruud ends up winning first set so opportunity loss there. Did I do the right thing in terms of protecting my bank?
YES, you read the game and that he wasnt up for it, you spotted rightly that serving for the set, having that there is a tough tough position not where you want to be imagine if AA serving for set the loss after that?
Did the right thing.
2 Peterson v SiegemundI had Siegemund as the value player here and I entered the trade when she went down a break, laying Peterson at $1.49. She was getting towelled up but I stayed in the trade. I layed Peterson again at $1.18 when she was broken again in the first game. Siegemund breaks back twice to go 3-1 and I exited the trade for a small profit/scratch. She ends up winning the 2nd set 7-5. Did I exit at the right time? Or should I have stayed in?
Talk me through the thought process to get the player at value and the thought process behind each entry and what the desired outcome on those was?
3 Andreescu v BeguI entered when Andreescu was down a set and break, backed her at $3.30. I slowly got out of the trade throughout the next game as she broke to love. She was down 5-2 2nd set and I backed her at $6 at 3-5 down. She went up 6-5 2nd set but then it got to a tie-breaker 6-6. I got out at this stage ($3.30) even though she had all the momentum. She ends up running away with the tie-breaker and then the third set.
Again the thought process? If they had the momentum and you spotted that and it was aligned to the hypothesis of it.
I actually think you are spotting some good opportunities its just a confidence thing, for me its all about creating the hypothesis and following back to that. Which you are pretty close too.
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@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
So going with the same theme as yesterday, I've been looking for clay courters who look too big. The one's standing out to me are Ruud vs Auger-Aliassime. Daniel Vs Rublev and Ferrer Vs Querry.
I think the price on Rublev looks crazy (1.28) against a player who's game suits these conditions. I think the Ruud match should be a lot tighter than the current BF odds suggest, and the same goes for Ferrer Vs Querry. This game is at a time that will suit @col so i'll just have a bet on it
Ferrer breaks in the 2nd game after facing break points in his first service game so no trade. Brutal as he's cruising currently!
Nice the straight bet came in for 3 out of 3 yesterday
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@col wouldn't call myself a guru, been at this less than 12 months on the tennis, but sometimes advice from someone who has recently been where you are can be as helpful as advice from the pro's.
With the Ruud trade, it was a bit of an emotional rollercoaster. I'm surprised i stayed in and got the green, it could have easily gone against me in such an open first set. In hindsight i felt i was more hoping it would go my way rather than reading the game, i almost turned it into a bet. I personally think coming out at 4-4 was the sensible decision, and I was rash to stay in and got lucky. We can't be results orientated, the process is what's important. If the Ruud trade had lost and then the Daniel trade won i'd have made little or not profit. If I exited at 4-4 for no loss then the Daniel trade wins I make profit. My point is, if i look at how i traded the 2 games, i'm 100% happy with the Daniel trade but feel i got lucky on Ruud.
With Andreescu i would have done the same as you, i very rarely leave my money at risk in a TB. I only do it if i know an oppenent is mentally weak and may struggle to cope with the pressure. Even then I have to be really really confident. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
So going with the same theme as yesterday, I've been looking for clay courters who look too big. The one's standing out to me are Ruud vs Auger-Aliassime. Daniel Vs Rublev and Ferrer Vs Querry.
I think the price on Rublev looks crazy (1.28) against a player who's game suits these conditions. I think the Ruud match should be a lot tighter than the current BF odds suggest, and the same goes for Ferrer Vs Querry. This game is at a time that will suit @col so i'll just have a bet on it
Ferrer breaks in the 2nd game after facing break points in his first service game so no trade. Brutal as he's cruising currently!
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So this post is to get identify where I can improve my trades to maximise my profits or whether I'm doing the right thing in terms of protecting my bank.
- Auger-Aliassime v Ruud
I liked this game and when @Simon made note of it, it was a definite trade game for me. I entered at 1-1 and backed Ruud. Ruud went down a break early but I stayed in and AA was broken in the next game. Ruud was always behind in the could and after 4 breaks of serve at 4-4, I decided to get out for a scratch. I just didn't like the way the match was going with all the breaks. Especially given if Ruud had been broken again, AA would've been serving for the set. Ruud ends up winning first set so opportunity loss there. Did I do the right thing in terms of protecting my bank?
- Peterson v Siegemund
I had Siegemund as the value player here and I entered the trade when she went down a break, laying Peterson at $1.49. She was getting towelled up but I stayed in the trade. I layed Peterson again at $1.18 when she was broken again in the first game. Siegemund breaks back twice to go 3-1 and I exited the trade for a small profit/scratch. She ends up winning the 2nd set 7-5. Did I exit at the right time? Or should I have stayed in?
- Andreescu v Begu
I entered when Andreescu was down a set and break, backed her at $3.30. I slowly got out of the trade throughout the next game as she broke to love. She was down 5-2 2nd set and I backed her at $6 at 3-5 down. She went up 6-5 2nd set but then it got to a tie-breaker 6-6. I got out at this stage ($3.30) even though she had all the momentum. She ends up running away with the tie-breaker and then the third set.
Now have I done the right things here in terms of a long term strategy of protecting my bank? Or does it seem I lack confidence and courage to not stay in a little longer? Hoping the gurus out there can share some advice @Simon @Ryan-Carruthers @Martin-Futter @Frode-Lia
Cheers
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@simon huge
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@col great comeback.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@col yeah last week must have taken it out of her. Looks like she’s going out.
Hold the phone!
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Winner on Daniel trade too
I couldn’t get vision so didn’t play it, sad for me but we’ll played
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@col yeah last week must have taken it out of her. Looks like she’s going out.
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Winner on Daniel trade too
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Andreescu in a bit of Barney.. so much action !
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@chris-watts Could be doing the same for any number of games any the moment! Breaks everywhere!
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Yes Ruud! Greeed up
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@simon @col Thats court speed for you
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@col roller coaster!!
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Scalping the server in the wang match is good fun!
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What is going on in the Ruud game? @Simon
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@gary-brown I'll let both players serve, and then back my player (Ruud, Daniel or Ferrer in this case) if they both hold. I'll then asses the game as it's going, I tend to nibble out some liability if my player gets to 0-30 on the opponents serve, or gets a break point. I also tend to green up if I get a break in my favour. If the break goes against me and I think my player has a chance of getting back in the set i'll let it ride to the end of the set. If he's getting pumped i'll exit. I also sometimes go back in at the start of the second set if i think a comeback is on. So no real system, just a case of reading the game as its being played.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Looks a good one, Mladenovic form is awful, poor record at Miami, poor record in outdoor hard, Wang big edge on serve + hold stats. I’ll be jumping in this one too
@col @Simon it appears this match is now at 6pm today...looking forward to it !
