2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon motivation imo he is going the Federer route! think he wants to win more slams than anyone in history and it's hard to argue against his stats, both him and Nadal have winning H2H over Fed, yet Fed is called the goat all the time, must be annoying!
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Djokovic on bad form or just unmotivated by anything other than a slam?
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Difficult card today. Thought Tsitsipas looked a very good price, but once you dig into the stats and H2H, doesn’t look so good anymore. A day to take a pass I think.
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@simon agreed, I am not his biggest fan to be fair lol I dont like him at all....
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
I reckon Goffin looks too short against Cecchinato today. His current form is awful, and these conditions should suit Cecchinato. His record on anything other than clay is pretty poor which makes me a bit wary, but the slow conditions in Miami should suit him. I think we might see a lot of breaks of serve in this one, so I won't panic if he gets broken, and i'll take green straight away if the first brake goes my way, as I reckon every chance of a break back.
This game was delayed to well past my bed time due to the rain so thankfully was a no trade for me as would have been a loser. Plenty of breaks in the match as expected, but most of them for Goffin.
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I reckon Goffin looks too short against Cecchinato today. His current form is awful, and these conditions should suit Cecchinato. His record on anything other than clay is pretty poor which makes me a bit wary, but the slow conditions in Miami should suit him. I think we might see a lot of breaks of serve in this one, so I won't panic if he gets broken, and i'll take green straight away if the first brake goes my way, as I reckon every chance of a break back.
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@col @Ryan-Carruthers he seems to be super motivated since he beat Rafa. before that game he'd looked totally uninterested in every game this season.
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@col He's well an truly on my avoid list - you literally never know what you will get with him.
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Got a big tank watch on Kyrgios today.
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Edmund playing well at the moment. Would fancy him against Isner in the next round if he see’s this out.
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@ryan-carruthers It makes sense. I guess that is experience for you. Thanks for the insight. Really appreciate it.
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@col It's the same though when you're 1.40 lay loses the first two games and the market overreacts now your staring down a loss.
I'd rather go ok that player turned up and I missed out but nothing lost nothing gained, than sat there on the other side.
Those 3 outsiders that come in will give you that feeling of breaking early a lot less than the losing ones my friend....
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Nothing from me today. Day with the family and out with friends tonight so no trading.
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@ryan-carruthers The thing with waiting is nothing makes you sicker (hyperbole) when you wait and you’re $3 outsider breaks early and races to 3-0 and next minute they’re $1.60. I find that can play on me mentally more than reading a game wrong and taking a red.
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@col
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I like the waiting element yes, it helps with trades like this one. It also gives you time to wait the initial stages out and it irons out the 'too good too not' trades - which let me tell you we have all done, thats why I always waits, tennis is also about momentum so if a player turns up early there's a chance they'll keep going this way.
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Pretty similar with this trade, with the waiting is my greatest advice here.
You are reading the stats well and also the motivations around the players etc.... I think you just have to wait for them both to serve then get in. Not really scattergun, you are thinking like a trader initially with the research its just the execution.
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Another 4 breaks of serve at 4-4. I’m fairly picking them this week
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Just the 1 today, going back to the well with Delbonis, he's facing Milman today. Delbonis currently 2.52 on BF and i'd have this much closer to pick'em.
Again going with the hypothesis that the slow conditions should suit him. H2H is 1-1 Milman winning at the Aus open earlier this year (much faster conditions) and Delbonis winning on clay last summer.Delbonis broke Millman in game 1 so no trade for me. Seems to be happening a lot this week.
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Just the 1 today, going back to the well with Delbonis, he's facing Milman today. Delbonis currently 2.52 on BF and i'd have this much closer to pick'em.
Again going with the hypothesis that the slow conditions should suit him. H2H is 1-1 Milman winning at the Aus open earlier this year (much faster conditions) and Delbonis winning on clay last summer. -
@Simon
Thanks mate, appreciate the feedback and assurance. It's hard to know if you're doing the right thing sometimes - a bit of a head f*ck if I'm quite honest! I'm a long time punter and I think (hope) it will come in time but I just need to learn but experiencing. It's difficult to "trust the process" if you don't know if you've got the right process, you know?
@Ryan-Carruthers
Thanks for your feedback here.
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I liked Seigemund here pre, as she had won previous day so experience on the slow surface & strong h2h. I know you like to wait for both to be 1-1 before entering but when she got broken and Peterson got into $1.59, it was too short for me to resist. Seigemund continued to play poorly for the rest of the set. When she got broken again, she went into $1.18 and that certainly was far too short with a whole set left to run. When she got to 3-1, Petersons level had dipped but I had to get out given she hadn't lifted her level all that much and how poorly she was playing earlier. She was actually down 3-5 in that second set and faced a MP but somehow won 7-5.
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I thought Andreescu was short enough pre tbh $1.35ish. She's had a magical run but I thought she could come out flat which she did. I thought Begu had a good chance to keep it tight given they had played just two weeks ago in a very tight 3 setter. I didn't think Begu would feel intimidated by Andreescu after her big run, it would probably do the opposite and motivate her even more. Andreescu was only $1.60-$1.70 odd throughout the first set so not quite enough to jump in and Andre was still quite flat. She was still $2.20-ish maybe? after first set - thought a bit short still though she showed some end of first set, she was still off.
When she got broken in 1st game of 2nd set, she got out to $3.30, that's when I entered. When she broke back, I got out given her propensity to lose her serve in the match so far. She got broken next game and I let the match play out. She ended going 5-2 down and looked gone facing a MP but somehow won the game. She had a head of steam up at this stage. I thought $6 at 5-3, only down a break, was juicy enough. I was hoping she would win the set 7-5 but when it got to 6-6, I bailed.
Does this just seem like a scattergun approach to you?
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