2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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Houston Lays:
Lorenzi
Garcia Lopez
Laaksonen
Sandgren -
@simon Sods law isn't it!
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The overnight lays in Houston went well. 3 wins from 3. Shame I didn’t trade any of them
2 for today in Marrakech
Londero
Herbert -
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@ryan-carruthers yeah nice save that!
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@simon Amazing waiting, saved us a loss there!
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@ryan-carruthers yeah like the look of this one too. Andreozzi in terrible form and all the stats on side with Ramos
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11am
ATP Marrakech
Ramos-Vinolas v Andreozzi
I think BF has this priced up slightly wrong and there is actually a little bit of value on Ramos here, Ramos is suited to the clay has a whopping serve, with a very clever defensive style but its the fact he utilises top spin here and the stats that give him the edge for me, top spin on clay can be a nightmare to face. His opponent is currently 2.54 on BF and I have him @ 4.48, he is good on clay yes, but his form is so poor and his heavy hitting style really might take it out of him here if he isn't firing from the off.
I will let them both have a serve and if they both hold their first serves then I will look to back Ramos-Vinolas - trading out at the end of the first set.
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@joel-corry Its an interesting read that, I think the only way would be to collect the data, you could always get a coder to scrape it daily for you cost about £50 I'd imagine but they'd get you all the data save you doing it, tough to say at this stage whether it has legs without the data - but with some parameters be interesting to see what would come out from it.
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2 lays today:
Daniel
Edmund -
@Ryan-Carruthers I've been reading around and there appears to be a slight advantage to winning the first set and/or match if you serve the first game. https://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/blog/keys-match-tennis-it-advantage-serve-first
However 4% is difficult to work with and I want to see the data myself. Main reasons being to compare the first serve against all the other criteria: price of person serving, current ranking, court type, etc... I'd hope that the 4% could become larger adjusted for certain matches.
What are your thoughts? I'm thinking of starting my own database but it's difficult to monitor conclusively.
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Looks like a fast surface in Houston for the 250 tomorrow, so think I’ll just paper trade that for the lays. Can’t find much info on Marrakech apart from its at altitude so the ball should zip through the air. I will be playing this, will post the lays later
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@adam-williams said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@col Sorry, don't know why I didn't see you query re the forecasts earlier.
Scope of all of them is last year's worth of matches in the same "category" (e.g. ATP singles) and surface. They're also adjusted based on the venue of the upcoming match.
Thanks for getting back to me Adam. That clears things up a bit.
"Last year's worth" is that the last 52 weeks or the last calendar year? ie. all of 2018?
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@joel-corry I think its perhaps the only stats nobody has, what's the plan with wanting it? Let's see if there's a workaround
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@col Sorry, don't know why I didn't see you query re the forecasts earlier.
Scope of all of them is last year's worth of matches in the same "category" (e.g. ATP singles) and surface. They're also adjusted based on the venue of the upcoming match.
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@Ryan-Carruthers Been looking all over tennis abstract for it but can't seem to find it. Almost like it's the only stat they don't keep!
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@joel-corry tried tennis abstract?
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Hi guys - I'm trying to put something together relating to whoever serves first in the first set of a tennis match. Any idea where I can find this historical data? Been looking everywhere and can't seem to find anything...
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@simon I think you can, they hide them away though
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@ryan-carruthers didn’t realize you could get court speed from those sites. Will take a look myself closer to the time too and give you a nudge if I’m struggling
Cheers
