2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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3 lays in Budapest today.
Hurackz
Harris
Djere -
@col it’s something I may take into consideration when evaluating a match up, but never dug any deeper than that.
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Has anyone done much digging into ranking points and when players have to defend them?
Obviously players are more motivated when they have ranking points to defend versus the week prior or week after? Is there an edge there in your experience?
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
One lay today in Budapest:
Krajinovic
Red on this one. Bloody frustrating, Seppi had 2 break points before then losing 9 points on the bounce.
That's brutal.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
One lay today in Budapest:
Krajinovic
Red on this one. Bloody frustrating, Seppi had 2 break points before then losing 9 points on the bounce.
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One lay today in Budapest:
Krajinovic
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@col unfortunately never managed to trade it, my son woke earlier than expected from a nap
plenty more this week to get stuck into though. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Lajovic looks good value to me today vs Fognini. He has the better stats, is obviously in form (as is Fognini) but I think if you had this game priced up a week ago Lajovic would have been slight favourite. Also Fognini is the perennial slow starter.
Good get mate.
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Lajovic looks good value to me today vs Fognini. He has the better stats, is obviously in form (as is Fognini) but I think if you had this game priced up a week ago Lajovic would have been slight favourite. Also Fognini is the perennial slow starter.
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@simon I have had one of those days, yes I looked at that but then my pricing model just didn't have him in the right odds so I was thinking it would of been a good one for the first set but nope!
Then Coric, why did that happen broke him a bit early.
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Shame Coric broke so early as would have been an easy win there.
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@col some win that!!
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@col yeah I think there is so little data to go on Medvedev on clay, but I’ve certainly revised my opinion now.
He’s been in unreal form since the back end of last year, and it doesn’t appear to be stopping.I think it's now safe to say that Medvedev CAN play on clay !
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@ryan-carruthers interesting in the Lajovic game, I have all the stats in his favour, but not enough for me to back him at that price. One thing I do like doing is opposing players after a big victory though, and Lajovic described his win over Thiem yesterday as the best tennis he’s ever played, so I think it would be difficult for him to back this performance up.
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@ryan-carruthers yeah I’m on Coric today too!
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Time 10.00am 4pm
Competition Monte Carlo Monte Carlo
Match Lajovic Sonego Coric Fognini
BF Odds 1.85 2.14 1.78 2.24
Ryan’s Odds 2.82 1.55 1.08 13
Player Notes Serve and volley Big server Has a lot of potential Erratic
Big serve Calm on court Plays from the baseline Suited for the clay
Attacking Likes the clay court Very clever player Good touch
Athletic Slower starter
How Would I trade it? Lajovic is a good player but he isn’t the value player for me here especially to start, I will be looking for them to both hold their own serves then if they do I will back Sonego, Sonego has the talent to really take this game to Lajovic. Looking at this one I have Coric as the value player, he looks solid especially for my trading style, I will look to see if they both hold their own serve if they do I will back Coric and trade out at the end of the first set. -
@simon One of those days matey!
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Two trades I like the look of today. Firstly Tsitsipas Vs Medvedev. I’d have Tsitsipas shorter than he is. The H2H is 3-0 Medvedev, but they have never met on clay, and this is an extremely slow clay, so I’m not giving much weight to the H2H. Medvedev stats on clay are awful, but the sample size is small and he’s been on stellar form this week so far, so that’s my main concern. But I think Tsitsipas should have enough on a surface which suits him much more than it suits Medvedevs style.
The other one I like is Norrie vs Sonego. I’d have this closer to pick’em. Both players going really well this week and surprising a few, should be another good game and I’m happy to take on Sonego at the prices.
I’ll back each player at 1-1 if no breaks of serve, then manage it from there.
So both my selections go a double break down in the first. One of those days, luckily Norrie was broken in game 1 so I never entered the trade.
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@col yeah I think there is so little data to go on Medvedev on clay, but I’ve certainly revised my opinion now.
He’s been in unreal form since the back end of last year, and it doesn’t appear to be stopping. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Reckon Monte Carlo has taught us that Medvedev CAN play on clay! Absolutely blew away Tsitsipas there.
And now Tsitsipas is blowing away Medvedev!
I think he's better than BTC stats give him credit for... his ELO ranking too!
