2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Reckon Monte Carlo has taught us that Medvedev CAN play on clay! Absolutely blew away Tsitsipas there.
And now Tsitsipas is blowing away Medvedev!
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Reckon Monte Carlo has taught us that Medvedev CAN play on clay! Absolutely blew away Tsitsipas there.
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Two trades I like the look of today. Firstly Tsitsipas Vs Medvedev. I’d have Tsitsipas shorter than he is. The H2H is 3-0 Medvedev, but they have never met on clay, and this is an extremely slow clay, so I’m not giving much weight to the H2H. Medvedev stats on clay are awful, but the sample size is small and he’s been on stellar form this week so far, so that’s my main concern. But I think Tsitsipas should have enough on a surface which suits him much more than it suits Medvedevs style.
The other one I like is Norrie vs Sonego. I’d have this closer to pick’em. Both players going really well this week and surprising a few, should be another good game and I’m happy to take on Sonego at the prices.
I’ll back each player at 1-1 if no breaks of serve, then manage it from there.
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@col yeah he turned it around, amazing how quick the momentum can shift, Struff looked in total control. Glad you got the green in the end
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@simon That was harder than it needed to be. Finally greened at 6-6. I thought he looked well on top early and through the middle stages too. Baby Fed looked like he was starting to work in it though..
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@col I’m sure he’ll break back, looks well in control so far.
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@simon Noted. I removed liability, was going to green out fully had Struff held....
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@col I also tend to nibble out liability when I can, so if my player gets to 0-30 against the opponents serve, or gets a break point, I remove some liability.
I’m more cautious like that, I just prefer that way of trading it. -
@col depends. I’m taking my green now. There seems to be so many breaks of serve on this slow surface that I’m not chancing it. Good green there, I’m happy to take it
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@simon How are you playing your exit mate? Do you exit once broken or wait until end of set?
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Laying Dimitrov 1.89
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@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Backing Schwartmann v Fritz @ $1.91.
Currently down 1 set.
No joy. Fritz was quite impressive in the end there. -
Backing Schwartmann v Fritz @ $1.91.
Currently down 1 set.
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@simon Interesting. I thought he looked a bit overawed by the occasion but an injury would explain it..
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@col Looks more one sided than i expected, although FAA pulled out of his doubles game yesterday citing a sore hip, so this must be playing a part.
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Gee this Auger Aliassime/Zverev match is a mouthwatering one. All stats are in favour of Zverev but FFA has so much upside, and is in terrific form. Sascha on the other hand out of form, down on confidence and looks to have peaked on his rise for the time being. I won't be trading but will be watching with great interest.
Of the other matches, I am keen on Fognini, Struff & Lajovic and wil back if they get to 1-1.
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I really like the look of Struff Vs Dimitrov today. I couldn't have Dimitrov that short on the form he's in at the moment. They have faced each other at Monte Carlo before, a game which Struff won. I'm basically looking for Struff to play his game, be solid and Dimitrov to be a bit erratic which he has been recently.
Also digging into the stats, Struff has the stronger Hold+Break percentages, so for me this looks like good value on Struff.
An interesting one to me is Thiem Vs Klizan. Looking at the H2H Klizan has had success against Thiem in the past, and when comparing the Hold + Break stats there isn't as much in it as you'd expect, only a few %. I will look for opportunities to get some cheap lays on Thiem in this one and hopefully scalp a few ticks here and there. -
@Simon I love them all. Cycling is generally on a terrible times for us though.. but I do it for the love... of value..
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@col that’s dedication mate! I love Paris Roubaix! My favourite race of the year easily!
Yeah that was a tough one for me, both out of form so decided I couldn’t call it.
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@simon The time zone has improved for me but still late at night. I'm still in sleep debt from Paris-Roubaix & Masters the other night - 4am finish and 6:30am start with the kids!!! But hope to participate a little more later this week.
I played Mannarino v Norrie last night. Serving stats for Mannarino were strong and was happy to take Norrie on on the clay - didn't quite the result though.