2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Big drift on Kvitova today, not sure why. I make her very good value at 1.81, although wary of the drift.
The market knew..
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Big drift on Kvitova today, not sure why. I make her very good value at 1.81, although wary of the drift.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Nothing on the ATP today, but seeing a few prices I like on the WTA. I think Halep doesn’t look short enough. I’d also have Bencic as slight favourite against Osaka here on clay, and I’d also have Stephens shorter than she is too, I think the market is over reacting to Matric’s current form.
I’m going to let the first set play out and then back these players at the start of S2 if they lost the first set.Halep - no trade
Bencic - win
Stephens - no trade -
@simon Yep not found much today that I like the look of to be fair!
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Nothing on the ATP today, but seeing a few prices I like on the WTA. I think Halep doesn’t look short enough. I’d also have Bencic as slight favourite against Osaka here on clay, and I’d also have Stephens shorter than she is too, I think the market is over reacting to Matric’s current form.
I’m going to let the first set play out and then back these players at the start of S2 if they lost the first set. -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
A few on the plan today. I like Fucs again for a value play vs Monfils. I also like Pella Vs Wawrinka for the same.
I will also plan to back Kohlschreiber if a break down before 4-4 or if a set down vs Tiafoe.
On the WTA poor servers I have Kuzmova and Zheng today. So I’ll lay them if a double break up, if serving to stay in the set or if they win set 1.No trade on Fucs
A loss on Pella
Win on Kohlschreiber
No trade Kolova
Win on Zheng double up
Win on Zheng lay 1sr set winner -
@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
A few on the plan today. I like Fucs again for a value play vs Monfils. I also like Pella Vs Wawrinka for the same.
I will also plan to back Kohlschreiber if a break down before 4-4 or if a set down vs Tiafoe.
On the WTA poor servers I have Kuzmova and Zheng today. So I’ll lay them if a double break up, if serving to stay in the set or if they win set 1.Greening up on Kohlschreiber
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A few on the plan today. I like Fucs again for a value play vs Monfils. I also like Pella Vs Wawrinka for the same.
I will also plan to back Kohlschreiber if a break down before 4-4 or if a set down vs Tiafoe.
On the WTA poor servers I have Kuzmova and Zheng today. So I’ll lay them if a double break up, if serving to stay in the set or if they win set 1. -
@lee-woodman Hi Lee, I use tennis abstract for their ELO ratings and tournament prediction models as one part of the picture. I also check tennis insight which requires a very cheap subscription fee, but the data on there is brilliant IMO. Gives you all the stats on specific surfaces and current form, highlights if a player has an issue against lefties for example, or if they perform particularly well against big servers. I take all this and add to my own notes which I’ve been compiling, then I may check Twitter, basically try to get an all around feel for the game and how it will pan out.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Looks another tricky-ish day in Madrid. I like the price on Fucsovics Vs Goffin, but I’m going to be patient on this one. I have in my notes that Goffin isn’t a good front runner, so I’m going to look to back Fucsovics at a very healthy price if he goes down a break prior to 4-4 or if he goes a set down.
I also think Millman looks a bit short vs Johnson. Neither in great form, so will wait and see if Johnson serve is firing and if he’s holding comfortably I’ll look to get involved.Nothing on the wta for me today.
Well a frustrating loss on Fucs, no trade on Edmund and I scratched pretty early in the Millman trade. It was clear halfway through the 1st set that his serve was just hanging on, and he was getting nowhere near breaking.
So less than a point loss on the day that could have been much worse all in all, so not too bad. -
What are decent & reliable sites to use for profiling tennis players? Presumably player profiling, ie who serves well/returns well/serves well under pressure etc, pieced together with surface type (and thus court speed etc) and then combined with the stats software is a huge part of assessing value trades
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Well all of my thoughts became no trade, either players dropping serves straight away or starting too strong.
A lot of people dont like the wait for both players to have a serve before backing but if I had of backed my two value players today straight from the off....
Edmund lost the first set and also his first serve - which would of had me in a really tough spot, yes he broke back but the sheer mental aspect of watching and trading that wouldn't of been fun watching, especially because Fognini score in that second game...
Goffin v Fucs - first set was 4-0 to Goffin before Fucs turned up, which would of hit my stop loss position. So even though the player I thought would win the first set did actually win the first set I would of been sat with 2 losses.
For me thats everything, yes I've not made any profit on my trades today but I haven't lost which I would have done if I had of backed from the start.
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@col yeah it was haha! On to the next one!
I think sometimes I struggle to have clarity when I’m in the heat of a trade. Thinking now, staying in the trade the worst case probably would have lost 10% more of my stake if Goffin bagels him. whereas the upside was massive, and even if he just got 1 break back which I knew was a distinct possibility, I could have got out for a scratch.
It’s that analytical thinking in the heat of the moment that I need to improve on. -
@simon that is brutal mate. Good read though.
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Looks another tricky-ish day in Madrid. I like the price on Fucsovics Vs Goffin, but I’m going to be patient on this one. I have in my notes that Goffin isn’t a good front runner, so I’m going to look to back Fucsovics at a very healthy price if he goes down a break prior to 4-4 or if he goes a set down.
I also think Millman looks a bit short vs Johnson. Neither in great form, so will wait and see if Johnson serve is firing and if he’s holding comfortably I’ll look to get involved.Nothing on the wta for me today.
Well that was a frustrating trade on Fucs. I laid Goffin when he was 2-0 up at 1.32. He then broke Fucs again, then held again to go 4-0 up. I decided to cut my losses at this point and thought I’ll back Fucs at the end of the set as I fancied him to comeback in set 2. Well he came back in set 1 and won the next 6 games!!
Hindsight is 20/20. Not sure if I did the right thing here or not by cutting my losses. I guess this is very rare in the ATP, and in most cases Goffin would have won the set.
The positive is I guess I read the game correctly, I knew Goffin was a poor front runner and worth a lay if taking a lead. Just frustrated at how it planned out for me in this occasion. -
@ryan-carruthers yeah Fucs looks a good price!
I was also considering Edmund for a first set back or maybe back Fognini if he losses S1, so may well follow you on this one
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I also think I will have a bit of the 1pm Fognini v Edmund match.
Fog doesn't like big servers, he isn't the best at starting games either is he? As we know.
I have the value on Edmund especially in the first set. I will let them both serve if they both hold then I will look to back Edmund.
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@simon My notes similar to you with fucs
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11am Goffin v Fuc
Looking at this I think the value is on Fucs, looking through the prices I really like the prices.
I have Fucs as value at 2.5 - I will let them both have a serve then if they both hold then I will back Fucs.
11am Wawrinka v Herbert
I am going to let this one start and then if I get the chance to back Stan Wawrinka at 1.7 plus I will take some of that if he is looking to get back into the game on his current price of 1.5 my model gives him value but I am never taking that price, that value is poor for me. If Stan starts slow then I will look to back him later.
