2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@ryan-carruthers it’s a nightmare! Actually scientifically proven it’s a thing, and hits men harder than women, so all the complaining we do is merited
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@simon I've now got that! Sarah gave me it over the weekend grrrr!
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A bit of man flu has meant I’ve not been in the markets the past couple of days, but getting back into it today.
Really like the look of Klizan today vs Kuku and reckon the value is on him. All stats in his favour. I’d like better odds though so will look to back him about 1.85 in play. -
Thanks @Martin-Futter , all seems obvious once it’s explained! really appreciate the time you and other experienced traders take to answer questions
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@will-b a few reasons, bigger odds so a little more wiggle room when trading (if Djokovic and Thiem are knocked out before final then I would be making less as Rafa would be trading around 1.2) but the main reason would be liquidity, the to reach the final market is not anywhere near liquid enough for me to trade so it would be a set and forget at worse odds.
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@martin-futter possibly a newbie question but is there a reason why backing Nadal as outright winner at 1.96 is preferable to the 1.43 available on him reaching the final?
If my maths is right the outright odds would need to drop to 1.38 after the semis in order to cash out for the equivalent 43% profit so I’m thinking the reach the final odds maybe better value. I guess the answer may be liquidity if you want to keep your options open about when to cash out?
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@martin-futter looks a good one Martin, have followed you on this.
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Rafa at 1.96 for the French has me tempted! He has won it 11 times and lost 2 times in his 13 appearances, based on that his odds would be 1.18. Factor in age, a middling clay warm up season (not that that has ever really mattered here) and maybe you can get it to 1.5. Djokovic and Thiem are the big dangers to this imo and he is not in the same half as them which is a big break, so should be able to green up nicely or at least remove liability if he gets to the final.
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@simon yes! Always works for me too that buddy.
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@frode-lia like that page and a good ROI too
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Tennis - Ryan's Lay the Favourite at 3-3 or 4-4: Rules lay the favourite when the score gets to 3-3 or 4-4 in the first set (green up or take loss if at end of set or before).
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 09:00:00 Gauff C. Juvan K.
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 09:00:00 Pera B. Zhang K.
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 09:00:00 Bouzkova M. Shimizu A.
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 09:00:00 Garcia-Perez G. Danilovic O.
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 10:30:00 Osuigwe W. Kiick A.
Wta - Singles Strasbourg 23/05/2019 11:30:00 Yastremska D. Ferro F.
Wta - Singles Nurnberg 23/05/2019 12:00:00 Stojanovic N. Cirstea S.
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 12:00:00 Swan K. Wang Xiy.
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 12:00:00 Perrin C. Bogdan A.
Wta - Singles French Open 23/05/2019 12:00:00 Bacsinszky T. Nara K.
Wta - Singles Nurnberg 23/05/2019 13:30:00 Brengle M. Siniakova K.
Atp - Singles Lyon 23/05/2019 16:45:00 Auger-Aliassime F. Johnson S. -
@ryan-carruthers just back from battering myself at the gym haha! It’s the no.1 stress reliever for me.
Thanks @Frode-Lia yeah I normally avoid Paire as he’s unpredictable. Think I just need a few days off, suffering from a bit of burnout I reckon.
Nice web page -
@simon I had Paire as a straight bet
https://bettin.gs/frodeliaPaire are a bit like Fognini, never now what you get.
This is just a speed bump for you Simon
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@simon I think thats a good idea matey, take some time. Come back refreshed and get something done other than trading reading/gym anything
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@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers yeah i'm not having a great month tbh. Luckily my racing bots are keeping me afloat at the moment!
I do have 2 i like the look of today though. I like the price on Londero Vs Albot. I think you have to watch out for motivation a week before a slam like this, but I think Londero should be well motivated as he's only really burst onto the ATP tour this year so will be looking to make an impact where he can. I'd have him as favourite vs Albot, so will back him at 1-1 if both hold.
I will also look to back Cuevas if a break down before 4-4 or a set down.2 losses on Cuevas and a no trade on Londero. Having the worst 7-10 days I think I’ve ever had betting/trading. Struggling with taking loss after loss at the moment so going to take break for the rest of the week and come back refreshed for the French open next week.
Have a good week all. -
My sheet pulls information from different sources, but last 3 months on tennis insight 63.8% first serve won.
Last 20 matches on BTC software 66%.
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Stour -
@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
break points saved and first serve won is massive!
Can I ask what you're basing that on? Her break points saved don't look too bad but her 1st serves won look quite ordinary. I'm just looking over at WTA stats, so just want to make sure I've not missed anything.
Thanks
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Loads of tennis from me today some really nice looking matches today with some really nice stats and some good players.
Starting off then…..
French Open Q 10.56
Stakhovsky BF 1.67 v Ignatik BF 2.42
I like the look of this one because I think the dog is priced at 2.42 and for me thats value, I have that player around 2.15 to be honest, I think his serve is a weapon and if that gets firing especially early doors this will have a huge impact on the first set, Stak has a power serve as well but his mental game isn’t that strong to be honest.
I will let them both have a serve if they both hold their own serve I will back Ignatik and aim to trade out at the end of the first set.
WTA Strasbourg 12.52
Yastremska BF 1.44 v Stosur BF 3.2
Now this is one I really like the look of, Stosur is a player I like. She’s got form on the surface, her stats recently look solid as well in terms of break points saved and first serve won is massive! Her game is suited to clay, with the slice and the big serve she will cause problems, the fav (Yastremska) is so low but she’s a slow starter, she has poor form and she doesn’t handle big servers very well - how is she this price??
Let them both have a serve if they both hold then I will look to back Stosur, trading out at the end of the first set.
French Open Q 13.49
Giron BF 1.85 v Rosol BF 2.04
Rosol is a player I have known for many many years, he is one of those players that have done very well for me over the years but recently he is all over the place not always being able to read what he is doing. Same today for me, on stats alone and value the value for me is on Giron, I will let them both have a serve and if they both hold look to back Giron.
