2022 Tennis Trading Thread

[A Former User]

@simon what is FA2? thanks

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Took a loss on the tennis first day. Profit on Simon as layed him 2 breaks up and greened after the 2nd set. That went to plan and from looking at the stats it seemed logical why it would.

At the same time though I layed Schwartzman a set up and then again at a set and a break. A closer inspection of the stats suggested that while Cilic doesn't lose many in straight sets, Schwartzman had won his fair share like that so in hindsight I can see why I wouldn't make that same trade again.

Almost the same problem in N Osaka game where I layed opponent after first break and doubled down on 2nd break. Going a break up in the 2nd set could have seen me get out for pretty much break even but I left it and of course she was broken, then broken again.....then lost in straight sets.

Again though, the stats showed Osaka doesn't lose many in straight sets but her opponent won a few that way regardless. Prob think against this trade in the future.

Trying to analyse my moves a little further because I'm bored and would appreciate any insight from the the experienced tennis traders here.

Looking back, Osaka record on grass fairly sub standard so should have left well alone.

Cilic good on grass and my thinking with mens tennis is hardly any breaks so only get in after first set. Of course had I got in as soon as cilic was broken I could have greened up nicely when he broke back.

This would have left me laying after Anderson first broken and then laying again on 2nd break rather than it being my first lay. Anderson went on to win 2nd set and I could have greened both lays for a decent profit.

Thoughts? Areas I went wrong or areas I would still have been going wrong with revised plan?

@Ryan-Carruthers , everyone else??

[A Former User]

@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

The Dimitrov Vs Auger-Aliassime game I posted about at the start of the week might actually go ahead today! I will lay FA2 if he goes a brake up before 4-4 and green up if broken back.
I will also look to have a very cheap lay of Federer if he wins S1 against Tsonga. He looks too short to me, but will wait and be patient and hopefully get in very cheaply.

Loss on FA2 but a lovely win on Fed.

[Richard Latimer]

Took a loss on the tennis first day. Profit on Simon as layed him 2 breaks up and greened after the 2nd set. That went to plan and from looking at the stats it seemed logical why it would.

At the same time though I layed Schwartzman a set up and then again at a set and a break. A closer inspection of the stats suggested that while Cilic doesn't lose many in straight sets, Schwartzman had won his fair share like that so in hindsight I can see why I wouldn't make that same trade again.

Almost the same problem in N Osaka game where I layed opponent after first break and doubled down on 2nd break. Going a break up in the 2nd set could have seen me get out for pretty much break even but I left it and of course she was broken, then broken again.....then lost in straight sets.

Again though, the stats showed Osaka doesn't lose many in straight sets but her opponent won a few that way regardless. Prob think against this trade in the future.

[A Former User]

@simon said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Laying Kerber at 1.56

Unlucky there, Maria had her chances. Got some liability out so not much damage done. Will look for another opportunity in set 2.

[A Former User]

Laying Kerber at 1.56

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Wonder if he will share his methods

He's been out of it for a while as had no internet for 2 years apparently. Going back in softly softly.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Wonder if he will share his methods

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer At present it doesn't separate - we are working on a fix for this. Did you ever remember Zak Lloyd? He has something that might of interested you as well - I'll dig the sheets out.

Defo Frode's method will be what you will like.

Funny you should mention, I contacted him and spoke this morning

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer At present it doesn't separate - we are working on a fix for this. Did you ever remember Zak Lloyd? He has something that might of interested you as well - I'll dig the sheets out.

Defo Frode's method will be what you will like.

[A Former User]

The Dimitrov Vs Auger-Aliassime game I posted about at the start of the week might actually go ahead today! I will lay FA2 if he goes a brake up before 4-4 and green up if broken back.
I will also look to have a very cheap lay of Federer if he wins S1 against Tsonga. He looks too short to me, but will wait and be patient and hopefully get in very cheaply.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Frode’s PJH method on the WTA is exactly what your looking for. He looks for players who are likely to come back from going a break down. You could start by tracking this yourself.
He also has posted a method where he backs strong favourites with a high PJH, and then removes liability when they go a break up. I forget the exact parameters, but I’m sure if you asked him he’d be happy to share. Both these strategies kind of fit what you are looking for, and might be a good starting point for you to dig deeper and work on.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Not at present, main focus now is back testing ability for the stats and horse racing stats.

You could use something like tennis abstract.com? Its got a fair bit on it there, we have a bit in the sequences element of the tennis stats on BTC as well maybe something could be built around there.

For example what's the trade you are looking to do? Let's see if we can build a filter together.

Yeah I've gone to tennis abstract find their ELO's. I just want to whittle iit down a little further into those that are likely to win the first set and those who are likely to come back. I'm looking at the stats engine but I'm not great with it to be honest haha!

@Ryan-Carruthers thanks . Essentially what I would like to do is find 2 different types of trade as I have done with the football which is working so well at the moment.

a) Find players who are highly likely to win the first set so I can get in maybe midway through and out again after a break or after the first set.

b) Find players who even if they do go behind/lose the first set that are likely to come back and win the next.

I created a list to look at, just need to fine tune it now.

17:30 Federer R. (1) 11 1.18 4.74 info 2 2371
Tsonga J. 6 25 2038
  Queen's Club S 1 2 3 4 5 H2H H A
12:00 Cilic M. (5) 2 1.21 4.28 info 4 2289
Schwartzman D. 1 93 1758
12:00 Simon G. 1 2.87 1.4 info 25 2002
Anderson K. (2) 4 7 2183
13:30 Kyrgios N. 0 1.22 4.21 info 19 2060
Carballes Baena R. 0 97 1835
14:30 Wawrinka S. (7) 0 1.42 2.8 info 27 1991
Mahut N. 3 70 1869
15:00 Bedene A. 0 4.27 1.21 info 67 1882
Raonic M. (6) 2 5 2214

12:30 Brady J. 0 5.64 1.14 info 61 1506
Barty A. (2) 1 1 1686
14:00 Osaka N. (1) 0 1.29 3.56 info 6 1614
Putintseva Y. 1 44 1437
17:00 Wang Q. (6) 1 2.36 1.57 info 29 1400
Williams V. 2 28 1577

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Not at present, main focus now is back testing ability for the stats and horse racing stats.

You could use something like tennis abstract.com? Its got a fair bit on it there, we have a bit in the sequences element of the tennis stats on BTC as well maybe something could be built around there.

For example what's the trade you are looking to do? Let's see if we can build a filter together.

Yeah I've gone to tennis abstract find their ELO's. I just want to whittle iit down a little further into those that are likely to win the first set and those who are likely to come back. I'm looking at the stats engine but I'm not great with it to be honest haha!

Like, how do I specify whether I want it to look at stats for either player 1 or player 2? This is probably so simple but I can't get my head around it haha

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Not at present, main focus now is back testing ability for the stats and horse racing stats.

You could use something like tennis abstract.com? Its got a fair bit on it there, we have a bit in the sequences element of the tennis stats on BTC as well maybe something could be built around there.

For example what's the trade you are looking to do? Let's see if we can build a filter together.

Yeah I've gone to tennis abstract find their ELO's. I just want to whittle iit down a little further into those that are likely to win the first set and those who are likely to come back. I'm looking at the stats engine but I'm not great with it to be honest haha!

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Not at present, main focus now is back testing ability for the stats and horse racing stats.

You could use something like tennis abstract.com? Its got a fair bit on it there, we have a bit in the sequences element of the tennis stats on BTC as well maybe something could be built around there.

For example what's the trade you are looking to do? Let's see if we can build a filter together.

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer There is one that @Frode-Lia found buddy I will post the extract on it below this....

A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.

• I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
• I checked for injuries and so on.
• My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
• I would first let the players serve once each.
• On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
• Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
• Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
• Stephens won the match 2-1.
  Rules for the strat is as follow:
  Let both players serve once each.

Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.

Take profit after backed player goes up.

Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.

Thanks Ryan. What about any plans to build and ELO figure and a comeback figure the way it is on football. So far, these have been brilliant since I started looking at them properly.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer I believe Simon also had something he was working on

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer There is one that @Frode-Lia found buddy I will post the extract on it below this....

A little background. I have the last couple of years used Dan Weston projected hold models to find value in players with good serve. My results got much better going from straight stats to the projected hold model. My tennis trading is very systematical in the sence I only use five different strategies. 3 for ATP and 2 for WTA. So I use the ratings different from strategy to strategy. But as a example the strat I use the most, and with my second highest ROI for the year.

• I find WTA players with 3% pluss in their procjected hold. Ex: (dont remember exact numbers) Stephens had 63% PJH, and Azarenka had 59% PJH. Stephens was between 2.4-2.6 in pre game odds. In other words, hugh value on Ostapenko.
• I checked for injuries and so on.
• My strat is then to back Stephens every time she is one break under, or and she loses the first set.
• I would first let the players serve once each.
• On the third serve Stephens was down 3-0. I would then back Stephens for 1% (using the BTC staking calculator) on Azarenkas serve.
• Stephens broke 3-1 and I took my profit.
• Stephens lost 1 set 6-3 and lost here first serve. I went in again with 0.5% on odds over 8, and she broke once again.
• Stephens won the match 2-1.
  Rules for the strat is as follow:
  Let both players serve once each.

Go in on first break, but not after 4-4.

Take profit after backed player goes up.

Or, take stop loss after backed player goes down.
The last thing is the most important. It is in stoping the loses your profits lies.
I have used the BTC model for Miami, and it have worked very nice. The thing I like with the BTC engine is that its availeble when I do my research. Usually before my kids wake up. Instead of waiting for a email. And it have been very accurate (surpriceingly since Adam still call them experimental?!?) Looking forward to follow them closly this autum.

[Richard Latimer]

Putting this in here because I have recently found some terrific angles from using the football ratings engine rather than the stats software itself. Were there any plans to do the same for tennis? Think it could prove invaluable.

@Ryan-Carruthers @Adam-Williams