2022 Tennis Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

Just ran tennis stats and there is nothing for tomorrow depsite being matches on tennisexplorer. Also to make sure I ran it again and again and again. Nothing for the rest of the week?? @Adam-Williams @Ryan-Carruthers, @Martin-Futter

Ryan

Tomic was a no trade as he broke him straight away!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Took me forever and a day to sort through tomorrows full card and when I'd got rid of the non qualfiers or players no ELO, very little to go on etc...etc.... I'm left with just these:

Category Tournament Date Player 1 P1 ELO P2 ELO Player 2 ELO Diff. Surface P1 PJH P2 PJH P1 W Set 1 P2 W Set 1 P1 W Set 2 P2 W Set 2 P1 W Set 3 P2 W Set 3
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 12:30 Kukushkin M. 1479 1759 Querrey S. -280 Y 68.73% 72.41% 35% 58% 40% 47% 50% 57% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30 Kerber A. 1842 1439 Peterson R. 403 Y 60.44% 58.42% 65% 35% 75% 45% 50% 63% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30 Mertens E. 1493 1706 Pliskova Ka. -213 Y 60.60% 64.27% 65% 35% 50% 85% 29% 63% Lay 1st set
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30 Querrey S. 1759 1342 Lajovic D. 417 Y 73.05% 67.77% 68% 45% 47% 45% 43% 83% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 14:00 Hercog P. 1487 1710 Halep S. -223 Y 56.10% 58.61% 37% 70% 42% 65% 33% 67% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 15:30 Sabalenka A. 1519 1645 Wozniacki C. -126 Y 62.22% 63.46% 40% 50% 55% 65% 43% 29% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 15:30 Rybakina E. 1610 1329 Hogenkamp R. 281 Y 81.19% 25.47% 50% 25% 64% 40% 50% 25% Lay 1st set

Players highlighted in green are those expected to win so lay the opposite if they go a break up/win 1st set.

Slight rethink on todays. Think the stats more than good enough to Back Pliskova and Halep (lay opposition) in a 3rd set if either gets there.

Ryan

ATP Antalya 13.30 Tomic v Gojowczyk

I like the look of this one today, Tomic has a whopping serve and has been known to start fast, he is a clever player as well tricky to play against which he will need as Gojo is a defensive player which will test Tomic today, Gojo is a talented returner of serve which is what I will be watching out for today. Value for me on Tomic, let them both have a serve if they both hold then I will back Tomic and aim to get out at the end of the first set for a nice profit on Tomic.

Ryan

@richard-latimer Couple of potentially crackers on there, Kerber, Halep ones I like the look of a lot

Martin

Tennis - Ryan's Lay the Favourite at 3-3 or 4-4: Rules lay the favourite when the score gets to 3-3 or 4-4 in the first set (green up or take loss if at end of set or before).

Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 11:00:00 Jabeur O. Konta J.
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30:00 Querrey S. Lajovic D.
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30:00 Verdasco F. Londero J. I.
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30:00 Kerber A. Peterson R.
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 14:00:00 Hercog P. Halep S.
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 14:00:00 Davis L. Di Lorenzo F.
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 14:00:00 Mrdeza T. Kalinskaya A.
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 14:00:00 Gatto-Monticone G. Wang Xiy.
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 14:00:00 Bonaventure Y. Taylor G.
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 15:30:00 Rybakina E. Hogenkamp R.
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 15:30:00 Raina A. Lisicki S.

Richard Latimer

Took me forever and a day to sort through tomorrows full card and when I'd got rid of the non qualfiers or players no ELO, very little to go on etc...etc.... I'm left with just these:

0_1561509515532_930fb571-d361-489d-aa53-ad827339c804-image.png

Category Tournament Date Player 1 P1 ELO P2 ELO Player 2 ELO Diff. Surface P1 PJH P2 PJH P1 W Set 1 P2 W Set 1 P1 W Set 2 P2 W Set 2 P1 W Set 3 P2 W Set 3
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 12:30 Kukushkin M. 1479 1759 Querrey S. -280 Y 68.73% 72.41% 35% 58% 40% 47% 50% 57% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30 Kerber A. 1842 1439 Peterson R. 403 Y 60.44% 58.42% 65% 35% 75% 45% 50% 63% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30 Mertens E. 1493 1706 Pliskova Ka. -213 Y 60.60% 64.27% 65% 35% 50% 85% 29% 63% Lay 1st set
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 12:30 Querrey S. 1759 1342 Lajovic D. 417 Y 73.05% 67.77% 68% 45% 47% 45% 43% 83% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 14:00 Hercog P. 1487 1710 Halep S. -223 Y 56.10% 58.61% 37% 70% 42% 65% 33% 67% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 26/06/2019 15:30 Sabalenka A. 1519 1645 Wozniacki C. -126 Y 62.22% 63.46% 40% 50% 55% 65% 43% 29% Lay 1st set
Wta - Singles Wimbledon 26/06/2019 15:30 Rybakina E. 1610 1329 Hogenkamp R. 281 Y 81.19% 25.47% 50% 25% 64% 40% 50% 25% Lay 1st set

Players highlighted in green are those expected to win so lay the opposite if they go a break up/win 1st set.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer I think you've hit on something nice here!

Hopefully haha

Ryan

@richard-latimer I think you've hit on something nice here!

Richard Latimer

No tennis tomorrow for me other than the ones still to play from today.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

So this is where I'm leaning tomorrow:

Category Tournament Date Player 1 P1 ELO P2 ELO Player 2 ELO Diff. Surface P1 PJH P2 PJH P1 W Set 1 P2 W Set 1 P1 W Set 2 P2 W Set 2 P1 W Set 3 P2 W Set 3
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 12:30 Gasparyan M. 1443 1729 Pliskova Ka. -286 Y 58.91% 63.13% 37% 35% 53% 85% 44% 56%
Atp - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 12:30 Kukushkin M. 1479 1759 Querrey S. -280 Y 68.73% 72.41% 35% 58% 40% 47% 50% 57%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 14:00 Tsurenko L. 1532 1637 Goerges J. -105 Y 57.34% 61.81% 42% 35% 37% 45% 50% 60%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 14:00 Sevastova A. 1615 1421 Gavrilova D. 194 Y 59.45% 55.83% 70% 26% 55% 37% 33% 67%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 15:30 Hercog P. 1487 1679 Strycova B. -192 Y 60.13% 63.20% 35% 45% 40% 45% 20% 67%
Wta - Singles Eastbourne 24/06/2019 17:00 Kudermetova V. 1549 1685 Bencic B. -136 Y 55.78% 60.82% 55% 55% 65% 75% 50% 56%

I've been through all match ups looking for ELO's of 100+ to start.

I've then gone through their career record on grass and deleted anything without a winning record season wise so if 7 seasons for example then 4 of those would need to have finished with a winning record on grass.

I've removed any matchups where the PJH% doesn't tally with the ELO ranking. So for example Ostapenko is an ELO favourite but her PJH% is lower than her opponent.

I've tabled win % for each of the 1s2, 2nd, 3rd set to see where each player is statistically stronger in the majority of their matches.

From doing this it looks as though the following moves could prove beneficial if the scenario arises inplay.

Ka Pliskova - If she gets broken or loses the first set I will lay the opponent as her win record second set is VERY strong.
Sam Querrey - If he gets broken in the first set I will lay the opponent. Undecided whether to take a small loss 2nd set or not as his stats not amazing for 2nd set.
J Goerges - If she is tied at 1 set a piece I will back her for the 3rd set and look to green on a break
A Sevastova - If she gets broken first set I will lay the opponent and look to green on a break either 1st or 2nd set.
B Strycova - if the score is tied at 1-1 I will back Strycova for the 3rd set and aim to green on a break.
B Bencic - If she is broken first set I will lay the opponent and aim to green on a break either 1st or 2nd set.

Pliskova won first set at a canter so there was never going to be a trade there.

Kukushkin broke Querrey early which allowed me to get in almost straight away. Querrey broke back and then went on to win the set easy enough so I was able to get out for good green.

Goerges and Sevastova both withdrew.

That leaves Strycova, currently winning 3-4 in the 1st set and Bencic which hasn't even started yet due to rain.

Richard Latimer

Anyone know why Sevastova and Goerges cancelled?

Ryan

@richard-latimer I'm pretty sure once its in you can get copy the data to another sheet and play with it

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

=IMPORTHTML("http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl","table",1)

Change the link to tennis abstract.

Thanks. Is this any different to copying and pasting the list into a spreadsheet? There is no way to import specific players data is there? It was going through the list that took time. Even being able to sort alphabetically on the website still takes time.

Ryan

@richard-latimer

=IMPORTHTML("http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl","table",1)

Change the link to tennis abstract.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

You can get them automatically via lookup on spreadsheet - which should save time.

Definitely. How do I do that?

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Also i think because im scottish its over exaggerated but some of the shots Murray is playing in the doubles is unreal, is doubles his only real way to stay in the game?

? Offline

@ryan-carruthers thanks mate, been using the database i setup to just use players traits and adding to them as an when. Even if its not actually going to make it a trade its just an extra % to make your confidence grow when you do. I find tennis fascinating because im a bit of a stats and analysis type traders anyway, is tennis insight and the ratings on btc the ones you use most?

Ryan

@darri Mines all stats based initially, but I pick the games that I know of the players.

So the stats filter out the games which work on my modelling and then from there I add in player knowledge to back it up, its really simple though for me in trading it all comes back to that one question 'what has to happen for my trade to be profitable?' from here thats where my model comes in to help get granular and my knowledge, stats etc....

? Offline

@ryan-carruthers @Simon During my time off been ramping up my research on tennis as i want to be in a position next year to be more Tennis during week, football at weeknights/weekends and cricket if its on sort of schedule. Iv been using database to literally fill out a card on each player i watch(so far 65) most of which are the actual top 50 ranked and it look exactly like tennis insight for the attributes. Is this what you are doing or is tennis insight as accurate as it looks? Also im guessing this bit is experience and watching patterns but i like how you guys have models were you can assess the odds and then match that to betfairs odds. Dont need to explain your edges but is this stats driven or like a database of how players attributes match up. For example A.Zverev being a fighter against someone who gets overconfident/bottler. Iv started to do this paper trading and so far its working but ill only know after a while for variance. I know there are loads of strats for tennis but odds models seems like the best long term way to make profits, because from there you can filter in all those strats.