2022 Tennis Trading Thread

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer I think that was his entry point, not 100% sure but sure he did something like that.

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer I remember Zak Lloyd used to do something like X the current price by 25% I think then that became his entry point if the stats worked out?

Ah yes, I was wondering. Knew he always tried to obtain a better price.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer I remember Zak Lloyd used to do something like X the current price by 25% I think then that became his entry point if the stats worked out?

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Tomorrows selections totally dominated by the ATP with only one WTA making the cut.

So for once Federer looks to have a little more competition so hopefully he can stutter just enough for me to get on him.
Nadal & Djok price makes it highly unlikely but you never know I guess.
Querrey once again as a bit of a staple on this right now as is Pliskova.

Been trying to come up with a rock solid contingency plan to activate the minute things seem they might go awry.

The idea is mostly for the favoured player to stumble so I can get in at a more agreeable price which should offer more value as long as that stumble is evidently temporary.

If they continue to stumble (broken or broken again) then I'm going to get out for a loss regardless. If they merely don't manage to break back back straight away and lose the first set I will hold on. If they then get broken in the next set I will red out immediately for an obviously higher loss. If they break I will hold the position for a bit but if they get broken back I will red out.

Certainly more room for movement in the mens as potential 5 sets but I will follow the same course of action on the womens.

Only way I suffer a full loss here is in the event of a break at the end of 2nd set on womens or tie break win when both players hold all the way through up to this point. Possible but not entirely common thus far from the games I've been tracking.

Should have said, the only price obtainable at the moment is Pliskova so I'll watch what happens first 1-2 games before attempting to get in.

[Richard Latimer]

Tomorrows selections totally dominated by the ATP with only one WTA making the cut.

So for once Federer looks to have a little more competition so hopefully he can stutter just enough for me to get on him.
Nadal & Djok price makes it highly unlikely but you never know I guess.
Querrey once again as a bit of a staple on this right now as is Pliskova.

Been trying to come up with a rock solid contingency plan to activate the minute things seem they might go awry.

The idea is mostly for the favoured player to stumble so I can get in at a more agreeable price which should offer more value as long as that stumble is evidently temporary.

If they continue to stumble (broken or broken again) then I'm going to get out for a loss regardless. If they merely don't manage to break back back straight away and lose the first set I will hold on. If they then get broken in the next set I will red out immediately for an obviously higher loss. If they break I will hold the position for a bit but if they get broken back I will red out.

Certainly more room for movement in the mens as potential 5 sets but I will follow the same course of action on the womens.

Only way I suffer a full loss here is in the event of a break at the end of 2nd set on womens or tie break win when both players hold all the way through up to this point. Possible but not entirely common thus far from the games I've been tracking.

[Richard Latimer]

According to the tennis stats Carla Suarez Navarro has a higher projected hold % than the monster serve of Serena Williams. Is there a glitch in the matrix haha?!

I was looking at that being a selection but I'm going to trust the matrix and rule it out now haha.....

[Martin]

@dave-jessop said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

monster hit on the loser there be careful mate

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Lovely stuff Well played, like you say though its the red ones you want to give a go with.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

Right, Im going to get this right today:

Left inplay odds on the lay if not there yet and if they are I'll wait for 1-2 games in case broken and better price achievable.

Two perfect and quick as you like tennis trades this morning. No opportunity to test my resolve of redding out though and that will be the key.

[Richard Latimer]

Right, Im going to get this right today:

Left inplay odds on the lay if not there yet and if they are I'll wait for 1-2 games in case broken and better price achievable.

[Ryan]

Sticking with the 3-3 / 4-4 today and the Frode PJH model

[Ryan]

@darri yep watching this with interest.

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers this girl Gauff is a real talent, could be a interesting 3rd set here!

[Ryan]

Got it. Liking it.

She’s going to dominate this game this girl for years.

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer They the ones which have the PJH / ELO / S1 W greens on your sheet?

They basically qualified on every aspect I looked at as opposed to most aspects.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer They the ones which have the PJH / ELO / S1 W greens on your sheet?

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

A bit of waiting today as quite a few prices already there and as I don't want to get stung on a first game break I'll do like Ryan and wait for first 2 service games on those.

Only the following lays already in left unmatched to go inplay:

Humbert
Hurkacz
Pella

2 things have stood out so far today. Projected hold % should be noted. Woz was the only player of the above not favoured in this aspect.

Overall ELO is equally as important as surface ELO. Both kontaveit and Anderson under 100 difference in this aspect. Kontaveit just lost in straight sets while Anderson making a complete meal of it.

Also, I need a an first when I remove myself from the action. It will be easier to do this when it's not happening as often.

Should have said I need a plan. A contingency plan if you will.

All of raonic, pliskova and halep have offered quick and easy profitable positions to trade out from. I know what to do tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

A bit of waiting today as quite a few prices already there and as I don't want to get stung on a first game break I'll do like Ryan and wait for first 2 service games on those.

Only the following lays already in left unmatched to go inplay:

Humbert
Hurkacz
Pella

2 things have stood out so far today. Projected hold % should be noted. Woz was the only player of the above not favoured in this aspect.

Overall ELO is equally as important as surface ELO. Both kontaveit and Anderson under 100 difference in this aspect. Kontaveit just lost in straight sets while Anderson making a complete meal of it.

Also, I need a an first when I remove myself from the action. It will be easier to do this when it's not happening as often.

Should have said I need a plan. A contingency plan if you will.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:

A bit of waiting today as quite a few prices already there and as I don't want to get stung on a first game break I'll do like Ryan and wait for first 2 service games on those.

Only the following lays already in left unmatched to go inplay:

Humbert
Hurkacz
Pella

2 things have stood out so far today. Projected hold % should be noted. Woz was the only player of the above not favoured in this aspect.

Overall ELO is equally as important as surface ELO. Both kontaveit and Anderson under 100 difference in this aspect. Kontaveit just lost in straight sets while Anderson making a complete meal of it.

Also, I need a an first when I remove myself from the action. It will be easier to do this when it's not happening as often.

[Ryan]

I am also looking at letting both players in the Paire v Vesely game, if they both hold their serve then I will look to back Paire, the price of 1.91 looks high value to me today, I have him more around the 1.6 mark especially with his record in the H2H and that serve, if that serve is firing then I think it will be a nice first set trade.