2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@col @Adam-Williams can you take a look at this please? thanks
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@Martin-Futter @Ryan-Carruthers @Adam-Williams Gents, can we please get today's Wuhan WTA matches added to the stats list.
The stats engine is the main reason I pay my subs so if we can't have the matches on there reliably, I may as well cancel my subscription going forward...
@col said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@Martin-Futter @Ryan-Carruthers @Adam-Williams Hi guys
The matches for WTA Zhangzhou and Hiroshima aren't appearing on the stats machine, could someone please have a look?
Thanks
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@Martin-Futter @Ryan-Carruthers @Adam-Williams Hi guys
The matches for WTA Zhangzhou and Hiroshima aren't appearing on the stats machine, could someone please have a look?
Thanks
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What a great week of tennis trading it has been on the Betfair Exchange! As the US Open reaches it's closing stages, we saw an overweight American woman serve and volley her way past the Wimbledon champion. Taylor Townsend got to the net more than 100 times during her 3 set battle with Halep, a tactic so rare in modern day women's tennis it left Halep clueless as to how to handle it.
We also saw the master of tennis Roger Federer look deflated as he lost another 5 set thriller, leaving us wondering if he can ever win another slam as his 39th birthday edges closer by the day. Media darling Federer who used every medical timeout and bathroom break that he could get away with, has been frustrated after it was exposed that the tournament directors ask him when he wants to play! A privelage a player like Dan Evans could only dream of (they played when Evens had less than a days rest and of course it was a no contest).
This is actually going to be a future trading topic of this post, how do injury breaks effect tennis trading and what strategies can we use to make some money on them when tennis trading on the Betfair exchange?More on that next month!
One thing I would like to mention before that is a note I want all tennis traders to take away from reading this. The US Open is the Grand Slam most likely to shock and have major upsets in my opinion. Why is this? One simple fact, the tennis season is a long gruelling slugfest of daily hitting, this takes it's toll on the body so by the time we reach the fourth Grand Slam of the year at Flushing Meadows a lot of players are needing that end of season break. As a result if you are ever going to go for a long shot to win a slam this is the tournament to do it in, I will give you a couple of names of winners from the last 10 years of Fed, Murray, Djokovic and Nadal dominance who were massive pre-event odds to win the US Open - Cilic and Del Potro. Let's look at some big odds finalists - Nishikori, Anderson and Del-Potro again (all in the past 5 years).
This year we have Medvedev and Dimitrov (world number 73!) in the semi-finals. So again we will have a new first-time Grand Slam finalist to round off the year of Slams.
So how can we take advantage of this fact? It is all well and good saying tennis traders should back a big odds winner of the US Open but how can you work out which one has a chance?
Let's take the Medvedev and Dimitrov match as a case study and work out how we could have found the value in those two players. The reason being these two have very different reasons to be backed that I use to make my long odds outright trades and so it is the perfect example for us tennis traders to study.
Medvedev (Opened at odds of around 120 on the Betfair Exchange) - Why was he value and what were the signs he should be backed?
Medvedev was a clear value pick here and he is the perfect example of an in-form underdog who has shown he has the capability to defy the odds in recent week. A young up and comer, Medvedev has risen over 300 places in the ATP tour World Rankings to become world number 9.
Won 14/16 matches during the US hard court season leading up to the US Open
Won the last Masters tournament in Cincinnati
Top 10 player who has been improving year on year
Doesn't get much media attention and therefore is not overhyped or overpriced based on name alone
These reasons together made for a compelling value pick here for tennis trading experts.Dimitrov (Opened at odds of around 400 on the Betfair Exchange) - Why was he value and what were the signs he should be backed?
Dimitrov was the media darling 2-3 years ago, named 'Baby Fed' he was expected to be the next generation tennis. However, this fell apart as Dimitrov failed to live up to such lofty expections. So why on earth was he a value pick here?
A player loaded with talent
Poor form has led to ridiculously good backing odds
Dimitrov has won high profile tournaments out of nowhere before - ATP Finals 2017
Won the Cincinnati masters a couple of years ago - the high profile warm up event for the US Open
This is a 'sleeper' pick as the Yankees themselves would say, a player more than capable of winning a slam who can raise his game at any time.So to conclude this case study what are the two types of player we should look to back at long odds in tennis trading outright betting markets?
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A player who is in top form, not expected to win but has the talent to. Youth is also a big advantage here.
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A player who has been out of form but is loaded with exceptional talent, that could turn that form around at any moment. A high profile tournament winner before is a big advantage here.
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@col @Adam-Williams is your man then!
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@martin-futter I’m trying to export the projected holds, bps and bpc stats for the games available but it doesn’t always (often) spit out the right numbers. I’ve brought it up with Ryan previously and we’ve passed it on to the dev guru to have a look but not yet been rectified.
As a stop gap, if we could still see the match data until after the conclusion of the match that would be a good interim solution.
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@Ryan-Carruthers Hi Ryan
Any chance we can have the upcoming matches disappear less quickly once a match starts?
I'm not sure when exactly they are scheduled to disappear but sometime I want to refer to the stats during the match and you can't see it anymore. It ties in with being about to export the matches accurately; if you could export accurately then it wouldn't be as big an issue but failing that...
Thanks
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@Ryan-Carruthers No I havent, where can I find that ?
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@liam-fox No, I think they are ok - it's just knowing the players.
If you are doing that strategy have you read my ebook on the lay of first set winner?
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@ryan-carruthers said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@liam-fox I have a filter for them, but they don't always qualify - the 3-3 / 4-4 gets more matey
Are you using lay of the first set winner?
Yes but recently I had a string of losses so I think my selections were not good - i was mostly trading challenger matches so maybe thats the problem, do you think challenger markets are harder for a newbie to trade ?
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If the bold player loses the first set then look to back them.
Category Tournament Date Player 1 Player 2
Wta - Singles Us Open 23/08/2019 16:00:00 Rybakina E. Cabrera L.
Wta - Singles Us Open 23/08/2019 16:00:00 Cepelova J. Fourlis J.
Wta - Singles Us Open 23/08/2019 17:30:00 Flipkens K. Larsson J.
Wta - Singles Us Open 23/08/2019 17:30:00 Townsend T. Stojanovic N. -
@liam-fox I have a filter for them, but they don't always qualify - the 3-3 / 4-4 gets more matey
Are you using lay of the first set winner?
