2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@rob-arkell said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe Haha! Haven't been in the UK for 5 years mate. In Portugal just now
One of my best mates lives in Portugal he’s from Lisbon he’s always banging on to me about how I should buy property and retire there.
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@james-woodroffe Haha! Haven't been in the UK for 5 years mate. In Portugal just now
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@rob-arkell said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
So many bloody good matches on today. I'm torn between staying in to trade or going out and getting some much needed food in my house and sun on my face. lol
You’re clearly not in the UK
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So many bloody good matches on today. I'm torn between staying in to trade or going out and getting some much needed food in my house and sun on my face. lol
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WTA matches I’ll be hoping to trade today in Doha will be matches where I see value to get in early in the first set but won’t hesitate to lay the first set winner if the match calls for it. I’ll be entering the first set after my girl has served first.
*Maria Sakkari 1.87 vs Julia George’s 2.08
First match on Centre Court today at 12:30pm our time. Great odds for Sakkari am slightly surprised she’s not shorter. Also expect her to win so won’t stress if first set goes against her.*Iga Swiatek 1.89 vs Donna Vekic 2.08
3rd match on Court 1 today. These two met in Melbourne at the Oz Open and Swiatek won in straight sets. The 18 year old has a good serve and Vekic can be shaky. There’s massive wraps on Swiatek who had a break thru year last year and again I won’t be stressing to much if she drops the first set.- Elena Svitolina 1.87 vs Anna Annisomova 2.08
Great value here for Svitolina and she will be smarting from her poor effort in Dubai where she was whipped by the surprise packet of 2020 (one of them at least) in Jen Brady.
- Jen Brady 2.06 v Alison Riske 1.87 4th match Court 1
She may be a touch tired but her confidence has never been higher. Riske can certainly play but Brady is a hell of a fighter and again won’t hesitate to lay Riske if she wins the first and Brady is well in the match.
ATP Men’s Dubai.
Gael Monfils 1.40 v Marton Fucsovics 3.45
2nd match of the night session.After we all green up from Novak starting slowly in the first match of the night session I’ll be keeping a very close eye on rank outsider Fucsovic. A very solid player with a good serve and strong ground strokes he took a set off Federer on RLA at the Oz in Jan before being put in his place. Monfils is in great form at the moment but I very much expect Fucsovic to make him work hard for the win today.
Hoping I’m reasonably on point today would love a green Monday to start the week.
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@ryan-carruthers Thanks for the tips
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@ryan-carruthers I was looking at that svitolina match myself. Thought it was a high price.
I have a soft spot for Sakkari though so find it hard to go against her.
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WTA Doha
12.30pm
Sakkari v GoergesI like this match up here for Goerges, she is value on my modelling, looking through the stats too she has a strong service hold which I would expect from her as that’s her weapon of choice, her opponent is a strong returner of serve which is what I will monitor in the match but at this price if they both hold their first serve I will back Goerges.
16.00
Svitolina v AnisimovaGreat price on Svit here, currently 1.87 for a player of her quality who is also 1-0 in the head to head (I know it was 2018) but Anisimova doesn’t like big servers, she struggles to master them and when you add in that Svit is a counter puncher who likes to draw the points out of you it can be devastating to play against mentally and physically.
Let them both have a serve if they both hold I will back Svitolina.
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Definitely like a few in the WTA event in Doha today with some really nice even match ups which could be good for early backs of the Dog and the old lay the first set winner. Just gotta do the school run and I’ll write them up shortly.
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On that note. Any guys interested in cricket, there's a similar opportunity here in the womens world cup. Sri Lanka got 122 against Aus. Available at 1.04
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@rob-arkell you used a pretty good example for a player also mate. Whilst it might not seem it given his brilliance, Novak can be quite a slow starter and it’s not unusual to see him drop serve early in a match. He just tends to always break back either straight away or deeper in the set.
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@rob-arkell With a minimum risk/reward on 2/1 you should be in the green.
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@michael-roberts said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
@rob-arkell £10 loss to a possible £500 is proper risk v reward.
Haha, yep. Not sure I'd have the guts to see out a massive upset like that though. I'm sure I'd cash out sooner.
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@rob-arkell £10 loss to a possible £500 is proper risk v reward.
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@frode-lia Thanks mate. Gonna give it a try.
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@rob-arkell You are not off here at all.
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When the big dogs are playing, for example Djokovic today. And the start price is crazy low at 1.02.
Has anyone ran the numbers on how often these guys might get broken early or lose the first set and how much it affects the price?
I'm thinking if I lay at 1.02 on every one of these sorts of matches and can come out at like 1.3-1.5 then I don't need a particularly good strike rate for it to be profitable.
Or am I way off here? -
@simon-miller said in 2019 Tennis Trading Thread:
Didn't feel comfortable going in the third. Felt I got away with it in second lol. Being bit careful as had a few trades go against today. Watching golf and hoping India can put on a good display in cricket
Mate I didn’t bother either once Opelka broke took the green and moved on.
