2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@james-woodroffe luckily only got in at start of second set bailed as soon as saw Anderson was injured - got caught out with Thiem and Monfils injuries this week already.
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@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Thinking there’s absolutely no harm in laying Rublev at 1.26 before his match against Anderson. The big lanky Saffer is playing some good tennis and whilst Rublev is by rights the favourite today I think it could be a lot closer than the current prices and expect a very interesting match.
Price moving out slightly since I started typing.
Had chances to lock in small green but didn’t take them before Rublev took the first set. Anderson injured at start of second I’ve bailed and will take a 2 point hit if Anderson goes out.
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Thinking there’s absolutely no harm in laying Rublev at 1.26 before his match against Anderson. The big lanky Saffer is playing some good tennis and whilst Rublev is by rights the favourite today I think it could be a lot closer than the current prices and expect a very interesting match.
Price moving out slightly since I started typing.
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Unfortunately Sinner retired early on, only other trade was lay 1st set winner in Medvedev game which was a 1pt win.
Rublev v Thiem easily the pick of tomorrow”s games
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
This may just be me and I know he’s playing Rublev but anyone else think there’s value in Sinner at 3’s?
Yes definitely great spot.
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This may just be me and I know he’s playing Rublev but anyone else think there’s value in Sinner at 3’s?
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Nothing really worked yesterday other than Djokovic. Back at work today although as wfh hope to be able to look at some lay 1st set winners if I can.
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@chris-osborne great intel re Garin and Stan mate and definitely something to keep an eye on should Stan drop the first set. Yeah sadly a couple of withdrawals have denied us some more good match ups. Evans v Bedene could be interesting if Dan drops the first and the Lajovic v Sonego match also interests me. Lajovic been a little up n down for me but I still reckon at 2.08 he poses good value. If he’s on today I would reckon he beats Sonego but I’ll have a bit more of a look later to see if it’s worth adding. Kraijanovic can seriously play and Djoko will have to be on to avoid a right scrap but I’m looking at him being a little slow out of the blocks.
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@james-woodroffe I agree on the Dmitrov and Djokovic game, as well as Djok being a slow starter, Krajinovic has broken first 80% of the time sa definitely worth laying at start
Warinka v Garin most stats point to Warinka but he has been inconsistent since lockdown. Couple of stats that interest me taken from BTC software are when Garin lost first sethe has won the 2nd 35% of the time whereas Warinka has lost second set 35% of the time after winning 1st set. Potentially worth laying Warinka if wins 1st set.
Due to cancellations and rearranged games, not all today's games showing in Stats as yet, the Bedene v Evans match intrigues me
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Really looking forward to today as the Vienna 500 continues with some big names and some good match ups I’ll be keeping an eye on the following matches with these plans for the day.
Dimitrov v Khachanov 1st match on Centre Court 2pm
Qualifies nicely for a lay the first set winner trade with 48% of matches this year that features either going the distance. Really hard to pick a winner but won’t hesitate to get involved after the first set.
Djokovic v Kraijanovic 2nd match on Centre Court.
Djoko unsurprisingly is a super short odds on favourite here at 1.09 but Kraijanovic can seriously play and his game works well on a indoor hard court. I’ll be laying Djokovic because he can be a slow starter from his first service game. The reason I won’t be laying him at around 3-3 or 4-4 is because I’ve seen Novak get broken early in a set and then break straight back a lot. I’m hoping to steal a little green early in the set and of course if it backfires and Djoko gets the first break I’ll just take the small red.
Garin v Warwinka 4th match on Centre Court.
Christian Garin is great value here for me at 3.65 or to lay Stan at 1.36. Stan has been a little up and down since the restart and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this goes the distance nor surprised if Garin actually knocks out Stan so I’ll be jumping on the Chilean for this one and hopefully we get an opportunity to see some green.
I’ll post in my new blog later tonight how this all plays out but that’s the plan re tennis for today.
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@chris-osborne tomorrow is another day mate. Onwards and upwards. Did ok on the IPL but that result undid it all. Not to worry. Glad the Novak v Anderson match worked well for you. Are they allowing Mrs Anderson to bring their little rat dog that sits in the Prada bag during these times?
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@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Shapo down a set against Austrian Wildcard Rodinov backed at 2.04.
Managed to get out at my stop loss at Rodinov took a 0-30 lead at 5-6. Coulda been worse but tomorrow looks good. Beware the local wildcards with the home fans. Didn’t think about that which was a bit daft.
No me either - got a decent result on Novak v Anderson but everything else was a bit rubbish - some of it my own doing.
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@james-woodroffe said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Shapo down a set against Austrian Wildcard Rodinov backed at 2.04.
Managed to get out at my stop loss at Rodinov took a 0-30 lead at 5-6. Coulda been worse but tomorrow looks good. Beware the local wildcards with the home fans. Didn’t think about that which was a bit daft.
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@james-woodroffe Thanks James although didn't work out in the end. Sofa Score keeps swithing my notifications off today - time to look elsewhere
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Shapo down a set against Austrian Wildcard Rodinov backed at 2.04.
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Coric v Fritz - seperated by one place in the rankings and in theory should be a close match, but Coric is in a lot better form having lost in the final in St Petersburg to Rublev a couple of weeks ago whereas Fritz has lost in early rounds last couple of weeks, motivation could be an issue here as winner likely to be playing Djokovic. Expect Coric to win, will lay Fitz if wins 1st set.
Novak v Anderson - all stats favour Anderson but on way back from a long term injury, not played well since lockdown. Only played one match indoors since 2018 which was pre lockdown in a qualifier earlier this year which he lost. Novak reached quarters two weeks ago and came through qualifying last week. Playing on a wild card here and Anderson on a protected ranking. Anderson is a strong favourite and everything being equal should win but I think at 2.72 Novak has a chance here.
Monfils v Carreno-Busta - Monfils is seeded player and is a strong Indoor player but hasn't won a match since lockdown - didn't go to US. PCB made quarters in US Open and Semi's at French and is the player in form. If goes to third set Monfils has better stats. Monfils will need a good start, in which case should be tight.
No value in Rublev or Shapovalov unless they lose 1st set.
I'll be laying 1st set winner in last two games if there competitive, also started reading through the PDF Ryan posted recently going to have a play around with the first part of that if opportunities arise.
These are my thoughts and I'm probably completely wrong but let's see how we go
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@chris-osborne really strong field mate should be a great tournament.
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A couple of days off work, hoping to trade some of the ATP games going on in Vienna this afternoon, a few of the games today look one sided but couple with potential, Coric v Fritz and Monfils v Carreno-Busta although Monfils been in poor form post lockdown.
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What a great choke from Dan Evans 1.04 3 match points and loses the set suddenly 2.42 going into the 3rd. 3 points green to cover the 2 lost in the Sabalenka match.
