2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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I’m struggling with the logic behind Thiem being back out to 7.40 outright before this match v Nadal.
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@aaron-collins no doesn’t look like today’s games have been updated yet, was fine yesterday
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@aaron-collins seems down mate yes. Nothing coming up for me today when there were matches on the filter yesterday for today.
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@chris-osborne now back to 6.60
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Is the stats engine for tennis working for anyone?
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@james-woodroffe interesting shout on Thiem despite winning his first match yesterday, now at 7.4
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Work this week at the O2 to finish off what’s been a strange old year. Difficult to trade onsite as it all depends on if I’m busy or not but have managed to back Thiem in the outright market at 6.20. A win over Rublev or Nadal should be enough to see him qualify for the semi finals and then hopefully a nice shorten in his odds to lock in a profit. The end of the WTA season passed me by so nothing to report of great interest there. Might get to do some lay first set winners this week and that’s about it.
Go Green if trading the Tour Finals.
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Not a great finish to the day with Felix AA going down a break in the 2nd. Two things I’ll take from it tho. Nowhere near as disappointed with the trade as the Mannarino one as AA was the favourite going into the match. The 2nd thing is more an observation to perhaps consider going forward with. As I’ve said before I dunno what the numbers are but players who squander multiple break point opportunities and are then broken themselves when it’s not a sit down at the end of the game. AA blew 4 in Caruso’s 2nd service game before being broken himself to go down 2-3. Interestingly I could have closed for tiny green after that service game and just seen how AA backed up and had I done that I’d still be in the Green for the day but alas not. Somehow 0.5 point red after a strong start. Onwards and upwards more learnt and as the tennis year winds up these little things could help going forward in 2021.
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Nice end to the day by laying Mertens at start and exiting after she lost first two games.
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@matt-wood thanks Matt although I’m nowhere near an expert on tennis or any form of trading.... Yet
I was pleased with this one.
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Got my eye on the Sabalenka v Paolin game today.
Sabalenka should be too strong and overpower Paolini but she can be a slow starter as the service stats below show: -
She is also broken first 55% of the time: -
Finally, if she loses the 1st set, she has won the 2nd set 45% of the time
I'll be laying her from the start to try and catch the potential slow start with a quick exit if she breaks first and holds her subsequent service game
Will be backing her if she loses the 1st set.
Thanks for this post Chris, really was very useful for me to see your thought process. Followed with min stakes to see how it played out and a nice little bit of green. More importantly though I can see the types of things to be looking for now when pulling out a match from the filters.
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Mannarino match was brutal and perhaps stayed in a touch to long and will need to reassess laying favs up a set. Hung around given Egor’s TB record but the market moved quickly. 4 points red still up 1.5 points but still kicking myself.
