2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@sean-fitzgerald unlucky as long as your thought processes and entry,exit points we’re fine I wouldn’t worry.
Having a nightmare so far this week but expect to turn round. Always seem to struggle at the start of a week.
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@sean-fitzgerald said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Looking to lay Rinderknech (v Londero). ELO data suggests large quantum between odds and implied probability based on ELO.
Still tweaking entry/points on this strategy but looking to go 60% stake from the off. Will enter remaining stake if Rinderknech goes up a break.
Will look to exit for green if Londero breaks
Not to be for this trade.
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Looking to lay Rinderknech (v Londero). ELO data suggests large quantum between odds and implied probability based on ELO.
Still tweaking entry/points on this strategy but looking to go 60% stake from the off. Will enter remaining stake if Rinderknech goes up a break.
Will look to exit for green if Londero breaks
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Was on the wrong side of both WTA Semi Finals last night - Backed Serrano after she lost a close first set which she probably should have won but then it looked like the exertions of the past two weeks finally caught up with her and she capitulated in the second set even after breaking sharma's serve stright away.
Unfortunately can't put that one down to anything other than user error. Thought I was removing liability after the early break in the second set. However, I managed to to increase the liability by backing again instead of laying.
The Jabeur game was a theme of the week dabbled a couple of times with opposing players struggling for fitness or clearly injured which was the case here. She was clearly suffering possibly Rammadan related. Will be leaving those scenarios alone from now on.
Got some back by backing Rublev when he went a break down to Ruud
2.5pts loss on the day which shoukd have been avoidable
Won't be trading the finals today, swimming lane booked for the same time as the Tsitipas v Rublev match which should be a tight game and the Jabeur v Sharma game clashes with our FA Cup Semi Final.
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The Tauson v Serrano match didn't turn out as planned due to Tauson suffering a reccurance of the knee injury she picked up in the first round forcing her to retire after two games of the 2nd set. Its a shame as until 4-4 in the 1st set had the makings of a great game. Both players are recent Junior Singles Champions and look to have big futures. 0.75pt loss
Semi Finals today Jabeur v Kovinic is a repeat of a match up at the same time last week which Kovinic surprisingly took in straight sets. I would expect Jabeur to get revenge but it won't be easy.
As for the Sharma v Serrano game, I would expect Serrano to win fairly easily unless the exertions of the past couple of weeks catch up with her.
From a trading point of view, will back Serrano if she goes a break down or loses 1st set - Sharma also falls into the Projected Hold range will look out for that to see if anything materialises. For the other game I'm not sure would like Jabeur to start slowly although her record of winning set 2 after losing set 1 is only 15%. but will see how it plays out.
Also semi finals in Monte Carlo which for work reasons not followed at all but with Djokovic and NAdal already out, should be a Tsitipas v Rublev final but Evans should cause Tsitipas problems
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@sean-fitzgerald tennisabstract.com might have that data buddy
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Only one trade for me yesterday which was a 1.4 pt gain on Brengle v Sharma laying Brengle after she went a break up, removing 50% liability when Sharma broke back and the rest when she held serve in the following game. Cashing out later in the set.
Not been alot of tradeable games this week alot of one sided matches in both Charlston and Monte Carlo although not been able to trade the latter for work reasons. However, a couple of the QF's in Charlston this evening look more tradeable.
One game in particular will be keeping any eye on is Tauson v Serrano which is a battle of two up and coming 19yr olds who have both won there first WTA 250 tournaments this year. As its on clay will be favouring Serrano, Hard courts would be backing Tauson but has the makings of a three setter which probably means it will be a 6-0, 6-1 win for one of them.
I’m with you on Tauson. Will look to get in on this match if I can drag myself out of bed for it.
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Only one trade for me yesterday which was a 1.4 pt gain on Brengle v Sharma laying Brengle after she went a break up, removing 50% liability when Sharma broke back and the rest when she held serve in the following game. Cashing out later in the set.
Not been alot of tradeable games this week alot of one sided matches in both Charlston and Monte Carlo although not been able to trade the latter for work reasons. However, a couple of the QF's in Charlston this evening look more tradeable.
One game in particular will be keeping any eye on is Tauson v Serrano which is a battle of two up and coming 19yr olds who have both won there first WTA 250 tournaments this year. As its on clay will be favouring Serrano, Hard courts would be backing Tauson but has the makings of a three setter which probably means it will be a 6-0, 6-1 win for one of them.
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@sean-fitzgerald Exit points are an issue for me as well especially if things go against me. I tend to focus more on the WTA than ATP as more breaks of serve.
Do you look to just cash out or remove liability of you get a break of serve.
Depends on the player but if the player I am favouring, breaks I will remove some of my liability and if they hold there subsequent service game I will either remove the rest of my liability or part of it with a view to removing the rest of the liability later on in the set. Leaving a free bet.
I've learnt to my cost on more than one occasion, not ot leave a freebet on someone into the next set, tends to go wrong more often than not. I will usually cash out at the end of the set.
If the player we want to break first does so but is likely to be broken themselves straight away e.g Sara Errani I will cash out as soon as they break can always reenter later on if the situation allows.
If there is no break of serve at around 4-4, I will take the loss shouldn't be much and cash out.
What I find tricky is if the player we're opposing breaks first do we accept the loss or let the trade run for a bit before taking a loss. Had scenarios where continued to go against me but also have gone for me. This is probably where knowledge of the players is key
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@sean-fitzgerald said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
So on to the trades I’m looking at. I will look to lay both Dimitrov (vs Chardy) and Schwartzman (v Ruud).
In both cases I will look to stake 60% from outset and put remainder in if Dimitrov or S’man break their opponent. Exit for green if their opponents go break up.
Let’s see how it goes noting any time I post something prior to end of trade it normally goes balls up
.So how did they go....
- Dimitrov Lay (-0.78pts) - A loss but ultimately comes down to not nailing the exit point.
So entered with 60% of stake and immediately Dimitrov broke Chardy out of the gates. At this point I put remaining 40% in. Chardy broke back and ended up losing 1st set in tiebreak. From the point he broke back through until start of TB had several opportunities to green up for circa 0.55 points but instead I took a little liability out and hung in. I mentioned I’m struggling with exit point and I’m starting to leaning toward a break in our favour being the natural exit point. Need to assess this against the data.
Dimitrov won in straight sets
- Schwartzman Lay (+0.58 points). A winning trade. Again entered at start of match with 60% stake. Ruud broke S’man in 1st set and took the first set 6-3. I exited at this point for 0.58 points of green.
Ruud won in straight sets
- Dimitrov Lay (-0.78pts) - A loss but ultimately comes down to not nailing the exit point.
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@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@sean-fitzgerald very interesting Sean, are these taken from btc stats or other sources?
These are taken from other sources. I get the ELO ratings from a website and then have spreadsheet to convert to implied probability etc
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@sean-fitzgerald very interesting Sean, are these taken from btc stats or other sources?
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Ah bugger....the formatting got stuffed when I posted which makes it difficult to read
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Further to my post below I thought I would share some of my findings on the accuracy of ELO against implied probability.
So I measure against 3 different ELO ratings:
- Overall ELO (all surfaces)
- Surface specific ELO
- An average of overall and surface
ATP Results Overall ELO
Implied Prob Range. Strike Rate. In Range
50% - 60% 57.14% Y
60% - 70%. 57.14%. N
70% - 80%. 73.33%. Y
80% - 90%. 83.87%. Y
90% - 100%. 90.00%. YATP Results Surface ELO
Implied Prob Range. Strike Rate. In Range
50% - 60% 55.81%. Y
60% - 70%. 62.50%. Y
70% - 80%. 74.47%. Y
80% - 90%. 79.17%. N
90% - 100%. 86.67%. NATP Results ELO Average (overall/surface)
Implied Prob Range. Strike Rate. In Range
50% - 60% 50.00%. Y
60% - 70%. 62.00%. Y
70% - 80%. 75.67%. Y
80% - 90%. 82.14%. Y
90% - 100%. 91.67%. YThis is based off a total of 175 matches thus far so still early days but a decent sample size to start to start to see potential.
As you can see the average rating is actually performing the best this far with each category coming in as we would expect aligned to the implied probability.
I’m doing the same for WTA but sample size is smaller (81 matches) so not ready to share yet but again early results are encouraging.
Hopefully this is of interest to some of you. I am absolutely open to thoughts and feedback as I’m sure there are some in the group with a greater flare and skill for this stuff than me.
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I’m looking at 2 trades tonight (today Euro time). These are both based on matches where I see a significant variance between ELO rating and implied probability from that rating v odds.
This angle (not strategy yet) is still in very early days so I’m only using bare minimum stakes. To date results look like:
ATP: Trades 24, Hit 16. Returning profit of 10.17 points (adjusted to assume normal staking)
WTA: Trades 11, Hit 5. Returning loss of -2.15 points (adjusted to assume normal stakes)
Note: To date I’ve been playing with entry and exit points as well as split stakes and still playing with those.
So on to the trades I’m looking at. I will look to lay both Dimitrov (vs Chardy) and Schwartzman (v Ruud).
In both cases I will look to stake 60% from outset and put remainder in if Dimitrov or S’man break their opponent. Exit for green if their opponents go break up.
Let’s see how it goes noting any time I post something prior to end of trade it normally goes balls up
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Work permitting will definitely have my eye on Djokovic v Sinner tomorrow be interesting to see how Sinner copes against Novak.
Sonego v Zverev could also be worth a look especially if Zverev forgets how to serve as usual.
Couple of useful 1st set trades tonight in from WTA in Charleston on the Linnette and Errani games. Serrano having won last week in her home tournament in Columbia and is only 19 is giving Linette a right good game and could be someone to watch out for especially on clay
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@sean-fitzgerald nice mate AA was ordinary as today following the re start. Another who looks like he might be a 20-15 rank kind of guy despite his talent. A mate on site today said to me “the better guys have him sussed out”. Food for thought going forward with certain matches he plays.
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@sean-fitzgerald I had a look at that match yesterday but work has meant not been able to trade this week so far.
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Had a nice trade play out well this evening. Layed Auger-Aliassime (v Garin) at $1.42 in their rain interrupted match. A-A was up a break in 1st set before they got rained off yesterday.
I liked this match from trading angle when I looked at it yesterday but it kicked off in the middle of night here in Aus.
So woke this morning and saw Garin down a break and jumped in. I toyed with letting 1st set play out but chose instead to jump in from the restart as figured they are both starting again momentum wise.
It was the right call as Garin broke back early and took 1st set in tiebreak. I’ve greened up nicely and will now take the trading hat off for the night and watch some terrible TV.
If only they all played out to plan like that
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@sean-fitzgerald definitely not a tennis guru but there’s probably something in this. Last week’s wta tournament in Charleston would be a perfect example.
