2022 Tennis Trading Thread
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@chris-osborne yeah mate I was happy to stay in whilst up a double break but wasn’t prepared to stick around with just a single break in the 3rd. Could have closed and laid her at 1.04 and seen what happened but didn’t think of it
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@james-woodroffe nice one James I got on that one as well but exited as soon as Sasnovich broke, for me she’s as reliable as Giorgi
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Lay the first winner goes well with Fett taking the first against Sasnovich. A double break in the 2nd and start of the 3rd made it fairly stress free. Exited after Fett got back one break and then held her serve. Exited with 3 points green.
Will look now to give Gerasimov a chance against Mannarino. If Egor holds at the start of the set. -
Happy with that trade greened up after Teichman got the break in the 2nd set. Backed her at 2.22 after her opening service game and took out some liability after the first break but not the 2nd. Was going to stay in if she got broke serving for the set as she was still a break up but great comeback from 0-40 to hold and then break straight away. 2.5 points so happy start to the day.
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good shout on teichmann serving for the first set... will you be exiting the trade after the first or would you let it run and take liability out? @James-Woodroffe
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@james-woodroffe good spot, only thing I can think of is Teichmann is more of a clay specialist and Dodin came through qualifying
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@James-Woodroffe very true, something i will have to keep an eye on and give a go. Im trying to have an exit at present of around 5-10 and trying to keep the loss of ticks to a minimum trying to keep some discipline for a change
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@simji yeah man, the thing with yesterday’s match was both girls were serving terribly and whenever Georgi was broken you couldn’t have faith in the other girl to consolidate. It did make for a good match to scalp by laying the server as both girls gave up so many break points.
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Morning gang,
Could be well worth opposing Oceane Dodin today at Linz against Jill Teichman. Kinda odd to me that Dodin is such a clear favourite when so much is going for Teichman.
Firstly the Swiss breaks first 55% of the time as well as her French opponent being broken first 60% of the time. Teichman also has a great record of winning 70% of her matches this year whilst Dodin has lost 50% in Straight Sets now baring in mind it’s a Covid year it’s worth pointing out that Teichman has played almost double the matches. 19-10 in 2020.
2.62 for Teichman to me is outstanding value as that could flip on its head very quickly. -
Giorgi is very unpredictable theres been a few times that ive been on the wrong side with her as she looks like its an easy win in a set and then some how lets it slip. After the 2 breaks she lost in set 2 i went in at 3.2 but was very uneasy as both players could have broken service any service. Im bit disappointed that i didnt get on this match at a low lay price. But i did think set up and 2 breaks and looking quite comfortable it wasn't a play.
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This post is deleted!
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@chris-osborne best thing she won. Means we know and we are aware if she gets in the same position again we both going to know to hold fire and green up.
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@james-woodroffe Thanks James - was pleased with Sabalenka trade especially with the use of the stats to back up my thinking.
i traded the Giorgi game virtually the same as you knowing she is liable to implode at any time yet still cut and run
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@chris-osborne great stuff re the Sabalenka trade mate really well thought out and executed trade. I hear you re letting trades run also. I laid Georgi at 1.16 when she broke and 1.05 up two breaks in the 2nd. WHY cause she’s a flake and I thought oh this has got 3 sets written all over it now. But I still didn’t hold my nerve even tho I never really hesitate to lay the girls at a set and a break or two breaks cause I’ve seen them just implode so many times but when the chance arises I’m still ultra conservative. Something we will sort out going forward. Again the Sabalenka trade was awesome.
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@chris-osborne Read that one perfectly for a change in laid Sabalenka at the start and exited when she was broken in her second service game. She broke back a couple of games later and looks like she's now going to win the first set.
Quick 1.5 pts profit although only end the day up half a point as messed up on the Giorgi game could have made a significant profit on that match in the second set but bailed too early when she was a set and a break up but ended up losing the set.
One area I need to work on with tennis is staying in trades longer and having the courage of my convictions. A number of times I have exited when started going against me when if I'd stayed in longer would have turned round and instead of taking a loss, would have been in profit.
Maybe paper trade for the rest of this year or drop down to min stakes and experiment a bit so can really look at kicking on next year.
