2022 Tennis Trading Thread
-
@james-woodroffe Seems reasonable, I think laying the first set winner is the likely play in all four games tonight
-
So semi finals at the Oz Open and after the disappointing result that saw Ash get knocked out in front of an empty RLA the crowds return today after the 5 day lockdown.
Great value on Muchova when you consider who she’s beaten this last week 2.62 seems ludicrous when Terrence and Phillip is 1.60. I’ll be laying Brady looking for Muchova to make a strong start as well as laying the first set winner.
Laying first set winner will be the play with Serena and Osaka as well. I’m really hoping that Serena wins now and passes Margaret Courts record. The sooner that bigot fades into irrelevance the better.
I will also be looking at laying the first set winner between Collins and Kasakstina which is the first of the 3 matches to monitor.
Here’s to a green Thursday. -
@chris-osborne nice work mate.
Had a day off myself but will be up in the wee small hours for the mornings semi finals. Well done again brilliant work.
-
@chris-osborne Nicely done here
-
Other than sleeping through the Barty match which looks like it was a decent game to trade, probably my best day day of trading in this block of tournaments: -
Backed Brady 1st set after she went a break down, cashing out at 4-4 although she went onto lose the set.
Laid Pegula at start of 2nd set which Brady took comfortably, removed liability at various points cashing out at end of set.
Pegula broke at start of3rd set so took a bit of the profit and laid her, Brady broke back immediately and didn’t drop another game. Did place a min stakes lay at 5-1 when she was serving for the match in the vague hope that pressure got to her.
Backed Andreescu after she went a break down v Begu, she broke straight back and went onto win the set liability removed throughout the set and cashed out.
Overall 4pts profit on the day
-
@james-woodroffe nice one james I kept switching back and forth between them and ended up scratch.
A couple of points profit on Kasatkina after laying Pav at 4-0 in first set offset by a 1pt loss on Bouzkova after laying her at 1.05 pre match. I know she was up against someone ranked in the 400’s but couldn’t resist those odds.
First look at ATP, sitting with a free bet on Zverev which I’ll cash out if he wins the 1st set
-
Had a night off from trading on Sunday as I needed a good nights sleep and then decided that I was only interested in the match between Mrs Woodroffe and the big engine. Laid Serena when she won the first set got into a reasonable position after Simona broke early only to get broken back only to break again when I heard the one thing I wasn’t expecting which was “THE BINS!!” So I quickly closed my position and ran down the street looking like “that guy who spends lockdown in his pyjamas” chasing the bin guys. Got back still on serve Serena breaks and that’s that. Happily took my 2.5 points green could have been worse if wasn’t for the bin men.
-
@chris-osborne if only I practiced what I preached mate. I fell asleep before the Muguruza match and woke up to see she had taken the first set before Osaka had equalised.
managed a tiny green on Sabalenka after she dropped the first and levelled up but then got stung by Dom Thiem. Backed him at 2.04 at 4-4 in the 2nd and he lost 8 games in a row. Luckily I bailed when he got broken but still stung a little and then just turned my attention to the cricket and as a result totally forgot about Halep as I took a break. I like your call re Mertens and will see how that pans out maybe a back if she drops the first or goes down an early break. -
Bit of a shocker last night is probably an understatement. Probably shouldn't of traded as was a bit all over the place from the nightmare alot of us had trading football yesterday.
Lost out on Vondrousaka and Sabalenka and gained a bit back on Osaka, although if I'd followed @James-Woodroffe's advice on Muguruaza, would have been in profit in the game with Osaka as cashed out after she went a break down instead if waiting as she took the first set. Hindsight is a wonderful think.
Traded the Swiatek and Halep game fine after some sleep so back to what I should have been doing. Got a fairly decent return from laying Swiatek after the first set and also laying Halep after she went a break up in the 3rd only to lose serve straight away but still going onto win.
Pick of the games tomorrow morning for me is the Muchova v Mertens game which could well go to three sets.
The other three games have also got potential although will need slow starts for Svitolina, Brady and Barty, preferably losing the 1st set
-
@chris-osborne for sure re Halep mate, she was humiliated by Swiatek in Paris so will be well up for revenge. Sabalenka currently 1.86 which is pretty good value also.
-
@james-woodroffe All four WTA games tonight have potential but the two you've mentioned in particular.
If Williams serves like she did against Potapova, Sabalenka will destroy her. I think she'll have too much for Serena anyway.
The Osaka game I agree Muguruza has looked impressive so far and 2.86 does look good value
Halep and Swiatek could also be another good game which I think will go to 3 sets although Halep could also be looking for revenge from Roland Garros?
-
Looking forward to Muguruza v Osaka tonight and call it a hunch but I reckon Sabalenka knocks Serena out tonight. Will lay 1st winner in the first match and reckon Muguruza at 2.86 is crazy value.
-
@sean-fitzgerald Yep, something I've used in the past - I tend too look at the draw and who will go far into it then look through the odds and think - I used to play around with this site's stuff for going deep into tournaments.
http://www.tennisabstract.com/current/2021AustralianOpenWomenForecast.html
-
@martin-futter said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Is there any reason why tonight's games aren't showing in the stats?
I've messaged @adam-williams
Thanks Martin, Adam games showing now
-
@chris-osborne said in 2020 Tennis Trading Thread:
Is there any reason why tonight's games aren't showing in the stats?
I've messaged @adam-williams
-
Is there any reason why tonight's games aren't showing in the stats?
-
@sean-fitzgerald I’ve got small stakes on Mertens and Osaka at 40 and 8 respectively as with James nothing scientific about it
-
@sean-fitzgerald I did kinda forget about the men’s so it’s a good reminder post. Thiem drifted out to 32.0 when down 2 sets to 0 today against Nick and Djoko out to 26 when a retirement against Fritz looked on the cards.
-
@sean-fitzgerald hey mate, I’ve done a bit on overall winner market but I’ve not looked at simulations or anything. It’s been more a study of the draw and see if I can find players at value who I expect to go deep and not be surprised if they won. (Outside Djoker and Nadal)
I think there’s less on the ATP side then there is the WTA (says the bloke who backed Kvitova at 32.0 at the start of the Open). -
I’m keen to hear if anyone has success or trades “Overall Tournament Winner” market.
I listened to a piece on a podcast a few weeks back and got me thinking about a few potential angles there.
I’ve been really surprised how little the odds have come in through the first two rounds. I understand should be easy matches for seeds but all 3 players (Thiem, Zverev and Rublev)I’ve followed actually drifted out during their first two round matches and were higher than starting price at commencement of tournament.
I chose those 3 as I built a simulation tool based on ELO and simulated their worst case scenario run to semis 1000 times and each showed priced significantly higher than my simulation was showing.
Keen to hear if anyone has had some success in this market or any tips.
Cheers
