Strategy advice needed
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Posting this as looking for pointers moving forward.
I am sure someone has probably done something like this before many times, so nothing original here.
I have made a filter to test entering the second half of games as a set and forget.
The idea being to enter the +1.5 goal market and back the unders.
My first round of testing was just the filter and no odds or paper trading. This gave me a strike rate of 65.8% after 253 games. I thought that was good enough for me to continue testing.
Moving to my second round of testing (link to this below) I tweaked the filter slightly and started paper trading for 1 point a trade. I have managed to capture most odds only missing a handful of games here and there. Where the odds were missed I am using an average odds price just to complete the paper trade.
The strategy took a fairly big hit this weekend, having its worst performing days. Good timing really as I am posting here.
Hopefully some of you big brain traders out there can give me some advice for potential improvement or point out anything I have done wrong.
My own thoughts now are to start checking individual leagues and HT scorelines for bad performers.
All advice and criticism welcomed.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oZ0yT-Q3nJiH-FDpfVIkB2TqzVHjrt3qYqFYyYs8ww4/edit?usp=sharing
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@matt-wood nice one mate, from there you can correlate with the odds to find the "sweet spot", so on the new sheet you could also add what each score line has done p/l wise also, thats why its good you have also tracked the odds at the time so you can get the actual p/l and strike rates needed.
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@darri Thanks Darri.
HT scores was something I had in mind to check. Nice to see that I am on the right track thinking wise, although it helps enormously to see it written down like you did, thank you
Have set up a separate tab showing results of the various scorelines. Like you say it really wont take that long to get 100 of each. -
@martin-futter said in Strategy advice needed:
@matt-wood first thing I would do is look at odds, so first off how does this perform at odds of 1.5 or above? as anything lower will need a very high strike rate
This is exactly the sort of thing I need to learn next
interesting to see that when I remove everything below 1.5 the SR goes up slightly. -
I like the simplicity of this, it makes it very easy to track, improve and see if it will make profit.
From the sheet you give, id say there is a standout thing you got to try and do. Thats the impact of HT score lines. Id focus on trying to get 100 of each individual score line. That should be pretty quick considering 0-0/1-0/0-1 are the most common. Get 100 of each then you can start to look at this per score, then start to pick apart what score lines dont work.
Also 100 of each league. For me im not overly focussed on being too league specific but with a set and forget approach ie your not monitoring inplay you have to. Then we can start building a filter view that will be able to show an overview of what each column strengths and weaknesses are. So then we can pick apart each column: league, HT score and odds
Whatever you do tho dont be lured by the predicted p/l it already has. Keep testing. Nothing more satisfying when your putting money into something you have worked at and tested fully, which then goes onto be profitable. As soon as you place money it becomes something more so keep testing and build up that data. Its a grind but like most things you have to put a bit of effort into it to get something worthwhile out.
I dont like unders too much i always ditch mine after a few months is just a psychological thing for me, but happy to input anything i can when you need mate
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This is similar to the strategy I put together for the software challenge last year, I think there’s something in it but I’ve put it on hold for the time being until fans are back
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