@alastair-todd said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@Darri @James-Rome This has been an extremely helpful exchange from my point of view and has really helped me to understand the impact of staking and risk taken. Thanks Darri for this insightful analysis and thanks James for opening up this discussion to everyone to learn from. Keep up the good work both!
I second that Alastair. Great insight from Darri to a great strategy from James
@Darri @James-Rome This has been an extremely helpful exchange from my point of view and has really helped me to understand the impact of staking and risk taken. Thanks Darri for this insightful analysis and thanks James for opening up this discussion to everyone to learn from. Keep up the good work both! This is why this forum is so bloody good!
Right now you have accumulated £675 with almost 5x the amount of liability. 2-3 losses crippling it. With just focusing on FHG and good staking youd it beats what your currently doing both with profit and risk. Id sit down and get a very strict rule on staking. Maybe no more than 5% staked on FHGs and youll be amazed at how fast it grows mate. People always think you need to lump money in faster. Trust me with a £100 bank and compounding that end of each month with this strategy your going to grow beyond what you believe or even want. Hopefully iv not hijacked too much and please tell me to shut up when needed, but if your like me who set up a blog for this kind of reason then hope its helped.
Using your sheets to see if i can spot anything.
FHGs: your sweet spot right now seems to be between 1.5 and evens. Actually dont know if you spotted this but your not profitable when odds go above evens. You have around a 33% strike rate but need closer to 44% based on your average odds above 2.0.
The split stake method might be deceiving you here. Its also because your constantly scaling your stakes that you might think its being profitable. Its why i dont use split stakes, but regardless in the next part your profitable: between 1.5 and 2.0 your smashing it. So this is a good FHG finder/strategy. Try maybe paper trading a set stake approach and a split stake. I think your missing loads of gains by using a split stake so wide apart and the recovery of SHGs which ill update after. Maybe condense it to only two split stakes and within a tighter window. Say for this maybe 1.5/1.75/2.0. I think you could easily be making more with a 1.6/1.7 odds set stake if not the same as a split for less hassle. Happy to be proved wrong.
SHGs: actually arent that good a strike rate. Actually you only have a 76% strike rate and at those odds you need at least 81% strike rate. the whole 92% thing you have is false because not all your stake is matched so makes it hard to measure. So doing it this way you can see FHGs are the reason for your growth long term. Try look at them in 2 different strategies and you see the SHGs are a false outlook. In some cases your 2-3 losses away from losing most of your whole bank also based on the compounding.
Basically what im trying to say is your being played by randomness and the compounding and staking plans here are making this seem like it working for your 0-0 lays. Actually your FHGs is a strategy and its the main reason your averaging profits, but your recovery is actually not working and while it is actually in profit its only because your upping your stakes which cover up the actual losses they are bringing bringing down your FHGs. Id actually stop the recovery part. Put more of my staking into the FHGs. Its just the FHG market liquidity is a stinker so youd have to adapt long term but right now blast away with FHGs bud. Instead of the £66 liability in the 0-0 lays add a fraction of that into the FHGs instead.
Iv been looking at the whole approach for a while now to see if its a valid strategy cause if it was id do it myself. I think im happy to be proven wrong but based on your results this year id be blasting away with a good staking plan around FHGs only and ignoring the 0-0 lays.
Track my suggestion in the background before changing anything bud. Id be
only trading FHGs, waiting till i end of each month before compounding the bank. Based on your strike rate and odds FHGs are the main reason your in profit and the recoveries are fooled by randomness and long term will hold you back.
Hi Mate
I think the points you raise are fair tbh. BTW the 2/3 loss wasnt off this plan it was just getting me into trading and tbh didnt know what i was doing. I was bascially getting involded went badly gambled. Did the classic things watch youtube videos thought i was a expert i was very wrong !!!
I do agree with the staking point i do you use LTD and looking to sort my U2.5 out but like you say one bad day could undo all the good work and have to start again. While its going well I may go away and think about my staking plan. Atm FHG is at 67% succes rate. Not sure what SHG success is i could check but means turning work laptop back on and after today i am not doing that ha.
TBH mate any money i lose i wont be re investing from day 1 i said in my mind what ever i lose i lose and i have to get back it. I just thought if i throw money in ill never learn. So when i started off and lost 2/3 why i got on BTC to help. So very happy how my bank increased but i dont want to go back to square one again. I am trying to follow the plan of get rich slow so looking at staking is something i will do.
Appreicate the help your post has defo got me thinking and that what i wanted this to do. I am going to go away and think about the staking just torn between keeping staking as it is to end of next month. Thats because then i will have a soild 3 months of data. I have janurary but i have changed it since then because in jan i was only entering FHG at 1.5.
definatly been given food for thought. i will look at 0.5 points for FHG
@james-rome no worries mate, wasnt sure how else to word it. Fantastic profit. Im assuming based on this and your sheets your compounding the bank and as such you stakes are staying in line with the new bank. This was the only reason i brought it up tbh. Because your compounding and keeping the bank inline, then any sort of bad variance ie bad weather or fav goes to 10 men etc could hurt the bank by a fair bit. I noticed that you had lost 2/3 of the bank at one stage? Then it recovered. That type of swing is fairly large risk. Remember my own opinion and ill happily keep quiet if its not wanted.
The actual strategy doesnt matter to me. The risk/reward at its base isnt an issue as long as you are reaching the required strike rate to profit. Its just the risk of a losing run. If you say 92% of all games have at least a goal then my question is out of 100 games what if those 8 losses comes at the start? Its 100% the correct theory that with these type odds or in fact any strategy, you need to be beating the min strike rate to win. So yes you have been beating it here by making a large volume of wins and consistently. That part doesnt worry me, its just the potential worst case scenario based on your strike rate.
My staking is varied based on the strategy. But its mainly down to whats the worst run of games or batch of games i can expect. For my SHGs im aiming for a 84% strike rate so in theory i can expect to lose 16 out of 100. My worst case scenario is losing 16 at once. Not gonna happen (crosses fingers), but if it did based on my staking ill survive that. My max loss is 4% of bank. so 4x16 is 64%. Because i have other strategies alongside this i keep it this defensive because each of those strategies also have variance. If all 3 of my main strategies have a bad run my bank risk is still covered. If you are doing the strategies you have on here would yours? I did used to do 10% stakes and it was way too much risk because i was trading other things. Staking that much isnt actually that bad if its your main strategy its just variance from all others. Bad results happen and luck goes against you. Risk management is underplayed at times when we see digital money on screen (former troubled gambler).
Could you for this strategy risk say 0.5pt on the FHG. Then at HT if still 0-0 cover it with a lay to win trade of 1pt. So typically when its 0-0 with a heavy fav at home (worst case scenario) its roughly between 7 and 5 to lay. So overall your max loss could be 6.5 points. So roughly the same base risk/reward as you currently have but also now you can keep it in for the whole game without trading out. My math is a little off on this as i obviously dont have any data to go off in terms of FHG % and SHG% for your filter. Now given your strike rate if you lost those 8 games at the start you still survive the absolute worst case (-52%) compared to your current (-112% bank bust). Unlike others i agree with maximising your banks potential and staking potential from each individual strategy and not just wasting it but there is always a deep thought into what is too much risk. For me thats the worst possible run at the worst odds based on my previous trades. If you can measure it and still profit from that base you will always be doing well.
Basically with a 92% strike rate to profit you need to be aiming for average winning odds on or greater than 1.09. Plain and simple. The FHGs are your money maker obviously as they are never below that in general apart from extremes. The SHGs to back at HT are normally 1.11 or greater regardless. So as you see im not knocking the strategy just the risk of max outlay.
Iv probably rambled away and not made any sense. So ill try summarize. Again just my opinion not gospel. End of day its about overall risk. If you cant withstand a bad run whatever your strategy is, then your staking too much. I see you have a couple of strategies. Lets say both have 2-3 losses each. There is a bad day in germany for example and 0-0s pop up. At this rate right now 3 losses and you are close to wiping all your accrued gains, now because thats a bank your compounding each loss is a loss to the actual bank rather than profits. So would be close to at least 2/3rds of your bank total lost. Might be easy to think right now with a £1,000 bank which you can re invest, what about losing 2/3rd of a £20k bank could you stomach losing £13k from just 3 bad games.
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
So for example the czech vs belgium:
you staked £30 for fhg, that lost so then you followed up with a 0-0 lay and the liability of that was £140, so overall £170 liability for the whole match. What % of the bank is that to you. That trade you risked £170 to win £9.20?With the trade out at 80 mins your typically looking at losing 75% of that 0-0 lay id guess? So with above example would have been, risk £128 for £9.20?
So on your update you won= 1.18 points from this game. If 1point of your bank is around £9. Then you have a total outlay if 0-0 HT of almost 19 points to win 1pt. So in theory your at risk of losing your whole bank in 5 unlucky trades? With the trade out total risk is = 14pts so 7 game risk of bank loss.
Im not bashing this at all in fact i didnt know how to word it properly without sounding like a douche but iv seen this many times and people grow exponentially and then boom they stake in line with their new bank and bust it so fast. Its great you have the accumulated profit and your unattached nature to your bank is a great mindset for long term trading. I want you to succeed and not be one of the others who busts, just want to see if there might be a better way to limit this risk.
Hi mate dont worry about you not sound like a douche ha started this as wanted people to comment as I am no expert and feedback from more experiances people will help me learn. Well i started with a bank of £170 at the start of jan and now its £960 with this and other trading plans.Tbh mate i have been thinking about that the risk reward to find a balance as all i need is a few games to 0-0 at 80min and could lose as i had a couple like that recently but stuck with them as they were top teams playing against 10men. What i wanted to do with the belgium game was if was 0-0 after 60 when odds around 2 or 3 lay extra to make up for it. Just for bank what would you normally look to stake ? The main I am going for is 1 goal for profit as 92 percent of games have one goal and this depending on odds cover 75 pecent of the game (if odds higher covers more) so its higher risk so why i just look at strong fav teams. The thinking behind it is one team will have the talent to attack and be always on the attack. so because of that my thinking is high losses but probabilty ill get the goals more often then not.
My head is battered from work so hope that makes sense and ive answered everything if ive not just say. Was a long day full meeting so head spinning a bit so sorry if i have ahahha. Cheers for commenting honeslty asking questions like this i know will help me in the long
So for example the czech vs belgium:
you staked £30 for fhg, that lost so then you followed up with a 0-0 lay and the liability of that was £140, so overall £170 liability for the whole match. What % of the bank is that to you. That trade you risked £170 to win £9.20?
With the trade out at 80 mins your typically looking at losing 75% of that 0-0 lay id guess? So with above example would have been, risk £128 for £9.20?
So on your update you won= 1.18 points from this game. If 1point of your bank is around £9. Then you have a total outlay if 0-0 HT of almost 19 points to win 1pt. So in theory your at risk of losing your whole bank in 5 unlucky trades? With the trade out total risk is = 14pts so 7 game risk of bank loss.
Im not bashing this at all in fact i didnt know how to word it properly without sounding like a douche but iv seen this many times and people grow exponentially and then boom they stake in line with their new bank and bust it so fast. Its great you have the accumulated profit and your unattached nature to your bank is a great mindset for long term trading. I want you to succeed and not be one of the others who busts, just want to see if there might be a better way to limit this risk.
Just been reading a few of the blogs on here with no trading today. Interesting couple of strategies. In terms of staking what is your actual bank size? Often we see numbers people win but not quite sure the bank growth, why people use points system, just curious of yours as looks like a nice growth but those losses look huge when they hit. Just asking to see what the risk reward as a % of bank those trades are?
@alastair-todd said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome Thanks James, well done yesterday. You've earned a day off!
Cheers mate btw the goals scored and conceded are low on the filter just so i can see what the average is for both teams
@Alastair-Todd heres the filter i couldnt send it in the chat...international had to manually look for them
Hey Everyone for those who asked my google sheet is now update with todays results and i have sorted the request issue so should be able to download it now. But just incase you cant excel below
BTW i am happy to answer any questions you have so feel free to post them on here or message me honestly its not a bother at all 
Excel File
0_1616961256035_Betfair Trading FHG & Lay 00.xlsx
@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Todays selections
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Kazakhstan v France:+0.59 Points
Albania v England:+4.74
Georgia v Spain:+4.74
Bulgaria v Italy:+4.74
Romania v Germany+0.59 Points
Total:+15.4... Today was a Very good day !!!
if you try the link now in my signature should work ill update it when todays selections seatlled
@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@Eamonn-Hogan Alright yeah i know dont know why google sheets is doing that as didnt mean to set up it like that. After today ill post my excel sheet and i am going to look into these google sheets but should be sorted by today and if not should be able to get excel sheet off her as a back up
Cheers
@Eamonn-Hogan Alright yeah i know dont know why google sheets is doing that as didnt mean to set up it like that. After today ill post my excel sheet and i am going to look into these google sheets but should be sorted by today and if not should be able to get excel sheet off her as a back up
@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Todays selections
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Kazakhstan v France
Albania v England
Georgia v Spain
Bulgaria v Italy
Romania v Germany
i still cant acess your excel sheet mate, its asking for permission
Todays selections
LTD and KO
None
FHG & Lay 00
Kazakhstan v France
Albania v England
Georgia v Spain
Bulgaria v Italy
Romania v Germany