@martin-futter do you not think the risk is too much for these long term mate? its fantastic he has made profit but i think he should take it and run while he is up. Barcelona game was around 30% of his whole bank in one game, have a look at his sheets. Just trying to warn him not saying anything else is wrong just the liability. Its similar to laying the outside horse eventually there are 2 in a row that win etc.

last edited by Darri
Level 121

@james-rome what's the running total since you started the thread? looks good!

Pro Trader
Level 199

How big a loss we talking had barca not scored? I had an active trade on them also and i think we can both be honest in that while it seemed likely when a game goes into stoppage time even crap teams can hold on. I just fear for the liability you exposed for yourself here? I see you had a ltd at HT, FHG, A lay of 0-0 which was 9.0 at HT (and this was your recovery odds too), if barca hadnt scored this sounds like a bomb would have dropped. Remember what i said before, dont be fooled by making all these profits acrruing, its been done many times by people laying huge odds. On the betfaor forum there are plenty of these challenge type bets they go on mad runs of winning then it all stops and they then restart. They get so lucky for ages and some even think they are beating betfair. Then boom 2 losses and gone. The reason is as your bank builds its not like a loss is just chipping into your profits, your staking in line with your bank as it grows so any one of these losses blows it up.

Please be careful, these arent gonna be sustainable, easy to take a loss at this level of bank but if your in this long term its just gonna be a wasted opportunity. I thought when we spoke you said youd keep tracking but are you actively trading this (real money)or paper testing? If it is real money stop and run with the profits you have made so far. Honestly bud. You have built a nice bumper to now go learn trading with good staking and risk management, not everyone gets to learn with this bank level. use it. I really hope other pro traders can advise you on here so your not just seeing my opinion.

Just to clarify i dont disagree with the strategy anything can be tweaked in a way to build a good strategy. Risk/reward at any odds can be achievable. The only issue i see is the amount of liability used. Look im pretty sure iv warned enough and i know youll continue and i wish you all the best. I just think this has been done and tried loads of times. I just hope you realise in time. I personally just cant not have a say when i see something like this. If you doubt it then thats fine but im happy i tried. Youll most likely have a great run build to a big bank, and then one or two losses and youll stop all together. Wouldnt be a good community member if i didnt try. I hope im wrong and at this rate youll be minted. But if it were this easy dont you think we would all be doing this?

last edited by Darri
Level 121

06/04/21 Selections

LTD and KO
Norwich v Huddersfield
Western Sydney Wanderers v Central Coast Mariners ( will keep a eye on this may enter at HT)

FHG & Lay 00
Man City v Dortmund
Norwich v Huddersfield
Brenford v Birmingham

FHG
Man City v Dortmund
Norwich v Huddersfield
Brenford v Birmingham

Level 58

@james-rome

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

05/04/21 Selections

LTD and KO
Reading v Derby ( TBH totally forgot about this game checked at HT was 1-0 so just left it)
Zenit Petersburg v FK Chimki ( Didnt get in for odds i wanted )
Benfica v Martimo ( Didnt get in for odds i wanted )
Fenerbahce v Denizlispor+1.05 (LTD at HTfor 4 points liablity goal went in removed red)
Barcelona v Valladoid +1.03 (LTD at HTfor 4 points liablity late goal so let run)

FHG & Lay 00
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - Goal Came to early
Hull v Northampton +0.90
Grimsby v Cheltenham +0.27
Fenerbahce v Denizlispor +0.99
Zenit Petersburg v FK Chimki+2.06
Benfica v Martimo+0.26
Barcelona v Valladoid + 3.06 ( My plan is cash out at 80min but Valladoid had a man sent off and barcelona were on the front foot need to win to challange for the title so stayed in. I would have taken a big loss and was going to cash out if they were playing against 11 men. Layed extra as well once down to 10men )

FHG
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - Goal Came to early
Hull v Northampton +1.80
Grimsby v Cheltenham +0.51
Fenerbahce v Denizlispor -2.63
Zenit Petersburg v FK Chimki+1.80
Benfica v Martimo +0.51
Barcelona v Valladoid 2.63

Total Points Using FHG & Lay 0-0:+9.62 Points (includes LTD)
Total Points Using FHG: +1.44 Points (includes LTD)

Level 58

Not sure why put had a look this morning hull & cheltenham games quailfy so added to list

Level 58

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

@Eamonn-Hogan Try now mate should updated if not ill post a excel in here . Cheers

got it cheers

Level 67

05/04/21 Selections

LTD and KO
Reading v Derby
Zenit Petersburg v FK Chimki ( Wait for odds to drop at 6.6)
Benfica v Martimo ( Wait for odds to drop at 8.8)

FHG & Lay 00
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City
Hull v Northampton
Grimsby v Cheltenham
Fenerbahce v Denizlispor
Zenit Petersburg v FK Chimki
Benfica v Martimo
Barcelona v Valladoid

FHG
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City
Hull v Northampton
Grimsby v Cheltenham
Fenerbahce v Denizlispor
Zenit Petersburg v FK Chimki
Benfica v Martimo
Barcelona v Valladoid

last edited by James Rome
Level 58

@Eamonn-Hogan Try now mate should updated if not ill post a excel in here . Cheers

Level 58

@james-rome

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

LTD and KO
None

FHG & Lay 00
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC +2.13
Feyenoord v Sittard +1.06
Newcastle v Spurs +0.55 ( Found manually)
PSV v Heracles - Goal Came to early
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor +0.28
Sion v Young Boys ( Didnt trade was busy and missed it)
Heerenveen v Ajax+0.28
Man U v Brighton +0.28( Found manually)
Marseille v Dijon+2.21

FHG
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC +1.97
Feyenoord v Sittard -2.81
Newcastle v Spurs +1.97
PSV v Heracles - Goal Came to early
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor +0.55
Sion v Young Boys ( Didnt trade was busy and missed it)
Heerenveen v Ajax+0.55
Man U v Brighton +0.55 ( Found manually)
Marseille v Dijon +1.97

anyone know why some games arent picked up on filters let me know. As Spurs and Man U should have appeared on the list

Total Points Using FHG & Lay 0-0:+6.79Points
Total Points Using FHG: +4.75 Points

Level 58

@eamonn-hogan said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

LTD and KO
None

FHG & Lay 00
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Feyenoord v Sittard
PSV v Heracles
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor
Sion v Young Boys
Heerenveen v Ajax
Marseille v Dijon

FHG
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Feyenoord v Sittard
PSV v Heracles
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor
Sion v Young Boys
Heerenveen v Ajax
Marseille v Dijon

spreadsheet not updated in a week mate.

i updated my excel on my desktop i am not great with google sheets ill update it tonight once bets seatlled

Level 58

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

LTD and KO
None

FHG & Lay 00
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Feyenoord v Sittard
PSV v Heracles
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor
Sion v Young Boys
Heerenveen v Ajax
Marseille v Dijon

FHG
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Feyenoord v Sittard
PSV v Heracles
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor
Sion v Young Boys
Heerenveen v Ajax
Marseille v Dijon

spreadsheet not updated in a week mate.

Level 67

LTD and KO
None

FHG & Lay 00
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Feyenoord v Sittard
PSV v Heracles
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor
Sion v Young Boys
Heerenveen v Ajax
Marseille v Dijon

FHG
Melbourne Victory v Sydney FC
Feyenoord v Sittard
PSV v Heracles
Basaksehir v Yeni Malatyaspor
Sion v Young Boys
Heerenveen v Ajax
Marseille v Dijon

Level 58

@james-rome

Yesterdays Results

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

LTD and KO
Napoli v Crotone
Atalanta v Udinese
Real Madrid v Eibar
Clermont v Niort
Troyes v Guingamp

Was aiming to lay with max 4 points liabilitybut couldnt get the odds to be around where i wanted to enter

FHG & Lay 00
AC Milan v Sampdoria:+1.18
Monaco v Metz+1.18
Chelsea v WBA:+0.61 ( Saw this manually not sure why didnt show up on filter)
Lazio v Spezia: +1.18
Napoli v Crotone:+0.31
Atalanta v Udinese:+0.31
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke+0.31
Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt+0.31
Leeds v Sheffield Utd+0.31
Real Madrid v Eibar+2.49
Torini v Juventus+0.31 ( Saw this manually not sure why didnt show up on filter)
Kortijk v Club Brugge +0.31 ( Saw this manually not sure why didnt show up on filter)
Bologna v Inter+0.61
FC Porto v Santa Clara+1.18

FHG
AC Milan v Sampdoria: -3.1
Monaco v Metz:-3.1
Chelsea v WBA +2.17
Lazio v Spezia:-3.1
Napoli v Crotone:+0.61
Atalanta v Udinese:+0.61
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke+0.61
Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt+0.61
Leeds v Sheffield Utd+0.61
Real Madrid v Eibar+2.17
Torini v Juventus+0.61
Kortijk v Club Brugge+0.61
Bologna v Inter+2.17
FC Porto v Santa Clara:-3.1

Total Points Using FHG & Lay 0-0:+10.6Points
Total Points Using FHG: -1.62 Points

Level 58

LTD and KO
Napoli v Crotone
Atalanta v Udinese
Real Madrid v Eibar
Clermont v Niort
Troyes v Guingamp

FHG & Lay 00
AC Milan v Sampdoria
Monaco v Metz
Lazio v Spezia
Napoli v Crotone
Atalanta v Udinese
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke
Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt
Leeds v Sheffield Utd
Real Madrid v Eibar
Bologna v Inter
FC Porto v Santa Clara

FHG
AC Milan v Sampdoria
Monaco v Metz
Lazio v Spezia
Napoli v Crotone
Atalanta v Udinese
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke
Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt
Leeds v Sheffield Utd
Real Madrid v Eibar
Bologna v Inter
FC Porto v Santa Clara

Level 58

I don't know if people are following my selections. Sorry if you are I didn't post yesterday I had some personal stuff going on so didn't get to trade I will post my selections for today in a bit. Just as a side note I've had to withdraw some money from my account as well adulting is expensive wish I knew this before signing up 😂

Level 58

@dan-mackinnon this will just be a personal choice for traders. bank management and risk management come into it for me. I really dont want to be risking a decent amount of my bank each day. There is always a balance between making use of a bank and actually having a safety net. What alot of guys do i know from chatting to them is they have around 25% of their main bank in betfair. This covers enough of the busy periods. They will also keep a float in their trading bank (held in another bank separate to your personal one) for when things like betfair playing up etc so they can quickly deposit into other exchanges or bookies to hedge their trades. The rest of the bank can be put into some sort of savings account so that its still of use. Id say tho that most of the guys on here arent quite at a big bank size, big enough to worry about that. Id say once your hitting full time bank levels like £10k thats when i started to change my whole structure towards that.

Kind of why im not liking the look of those 0-0 lays given they would be 17% at times of my whole bank outlay in one trade given the games on here thats been a few at a time. I try to keep thinking of my bank as if it wasnt my money and how id manage that professionally for someone else (hedge fund) risk management is key for them. Its also the emotional effects it would have. easy at levels less than £5k because we could gradually re deposit that over a few years. With a £10k-£20k bank losing nearly 30-40% would make me sweat regardless if i knew the strategy was working before. But id be happy with a 10% loss because i know im averaging that over x amount of time to cover he losing day, they will come and happen to the best traders.

last edited by Darri
Level 121

@dan-mackinnon

@dan-mackinnon said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

@james-rome I've been enjoying reading this and following on from Darri's comments about risk/ reward ratio was going to ask about this. Not sure if any other traders can answer (and appreciate it might not be something they want to discuss), but once you start seeing your bank increase multiple times what you started, how much do you leave in your account and how much is in your "trading allowance"?

I'm not thinking so much about having potentially £10,000s sat in Betfair, but rather is the temptation to take more risk greater because you already have the money in the account? Compared to say staking 2% but knowing you never trade more than 10 games at a time so therefore leave only 20% of your bank. Using your example below, risking £25 and £175 is a bit different than say £500 and £3,500.

I only ask because I imagine it's probably another "professional mindset" and a test of discipline beginners and intermediates won't be dealing with.

Well this is something i was thinking last night as i placed FHG on 7 games with the same KO. After when driving i did think what if they all lose So i was thinking possiably limiting how much i use my bank at onc say maybe 10 or 15 percent. But i am not sure if people have a proper structure they stick to. It is something after last night may take a look out

Level 58

@james-rome I've been enjoying reading this and following on from Darri's comments about risk/ reward ratio was going to ask about this. Not sure if any other traders can answer (and appreciate it might not be something they want to discuss), but once you start seeing your bank increase multiple times what you started, how much do you leave in your account and how much is in your "trading allowance"?

I'm not thinking so much about having potentially £10,000s sat in Betfair, but rather is the temptation to take more risk greater because you already have the money in the account? Compared to say staking 2% but knowing you never trade more than 10 games at a time so therefore leave only 20% of your bank. Using your example below, risking £25 and £175 is a bit different than say £500 and £3,500.

I only ask because I imagine it's probably another "professional mindset" and a test of discipline beginners and intermediates won't be dealing with.

Level 60
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