@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

Just been looking through my results i have had 103 trades this month thats way more than i want. Last month 45 which is more what i want so during world cup ill be looking at a way to tighten up criteria to reduce games

That might happen organically, this month we've had both Summer and Winter LEagues on filters, most Summer Leagues have either finished or do so in the next couple of weeks. LAst month would have mainly been Summer LEagues only whilst Winter LEagues haven't played enough games.

Thats what I'm hoping for anyway as seeing similar

Level 104

Just been looking through my results i have had 103 trades this month thats way more than i want. Last month 45 which is more what i want so during world cup ill be looking at a way to tighten up criteria to reduce games

Level 58

Today

Austria Viena v Altach
LASK v AC Wolfsberger
Trelleborg v Brommapojkarna
Rennes v Montepelliar
Monaco v Angers
Real Madrid v Girona
Young Boys v Basel
FC Koln v Hoffenheim
Lyon v Lille

Filter O1.5 - Total since May 2022 +36.19

last edited by James Rome
Level 58

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

Today

Ostrava Mlada Boleslav +0.98
RB Leipzig Bayer Leverkusen +0.98
Bayern Munich 1. FSV Mainz 05 - Didnt Get Matched
Paris SG Troyes - Didnt Get Matched
Grasshoppers Luzern +0.98
Valerenga Sarpsborg 08 - Didnt Get Matched
Eintracht Frankfurt Dortmund +0.98
Benfica Chaves- Didnt Get Matched
St. Pauli Darmstadt +0.98
Club Brugge KV Oostende +0.98
Liverpool Leeds - Didnt Get Matched
Valencia Barcelona -4.0

Total +1.88

Filter O1.5 - Total since May 2022 +36.19

Level 58

Today

Ostrava Mlada Boleslav
RB Leipzig Bayer Leverkusen
Bayern Munich 1. FSV Mainz 05
Paris SG Troyes
Grasshoppers Luzern
Valerenga Sarpsborg 08
Eintracht Frankfurt Dortmund
Benfica Chaves
St. Pauli Darmstadt
Club Brugge KV Oostende
Liverpool Leeds
Valencia Barcelona

Level 58

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

Today

Zwolle Maastricht -4.0
Den Bosch Breda +0.98
Almere City Heracles +0.98
SV Werder Bremen Hertha Berlin -4.0

-6.04

Filter O1.5 - Total since May 2022 +34.31

Level 58

Today

Zwolle Maastricht
Den Bosch Breda
Almere City Heracles
SV Werder Bremen Hertha Berlin

Filter O1.5 - Total since May 2022 +40.35

Level 58

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

Today

Sheff Wed v Bristol Rovers +0.98

Filter O1.5 - Total since May 2022 +40.35

last edited by James Rome
Level 58

Today

Sheff Wed v Bristol Rovers

Filter O1.5 - Total since May 2022 +39.37

Level 58

@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

Today

Wuhan Three Towns Dalian Yifang F.C. +0.98
Brommapojkarna Brage - Didnt Get Matched

Filter O1.5 - Total since May 2022 +39.37

Level 58

@steven-bright said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

@james-rome No worries can restart the convo come your deep dive at world cup, im hesitant that you feel 1.25 or less is your only option and laying to win 1pt is better, but can see what we have come review.

The markets odds don't determine if a trade wins or not, the better the baseline strat then it doesn't matter the odds being higher, your logic is the opposite and therefore isn't based on getting better value.

Feel Free to have a look i have a filter with results with other games with varrying odds. Just from the raw data couldnt find a way to get on higher odds as i am not opposed to getting on them would prefer it more bang for you buck but from way of drilling down the data found to extract more had to looks at odds of 1.25 or lower

So the first sheet is the raw data. I use excel filters and do home av 1.5 or greater and odds min 1.25 or below. Look to get matched at 1.25 in play. Feel free to have a look you may know a better way to dig into the data but the only way i know is literally using filters and changing critera. I was trying to find something in excel to help with this to make sure wasnt missing anything.

PS but all the filtered data on another tab as well (Sheet data all based off backing with £10 stakes at bank of 1000 just to make it easier for working out points)

Sorry couldnt upload the actual file but hes a copy of the data on google sheets

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UUWH447N1heyQtsEFLDg6gc3NllqTULcEbClmOGUHh8/edit?usp=sharing

last edited by James Rome
Level 58

@james-rome No worries can restart the convo come your deep dive at world cup, im hesitant that you feel 1.25 or less is your only option and laying to win 1pt is better, but can see what we have come review.

The markets odds don't determine if a trade wins or not, the better the baseline strat then it doesn't matter the odds being higher, your logic is the opposite and therefore isn't based on getting better value.

last edited by Steven Bright
Level 8

@steven-bright said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

@james-rome im not saying change the games, im only suggesting changing how you place the trades. Your returns would be miles better for the exact same effort. Since may its been +38.39, with swings. The volume is huge just last week. You can make this strategy so much more simple with your planned tweak (better quality) and yet produce better profits. Both of which gives you a better edge to protect.

I'll send you the raw data but I've found the opposite hence why do what I do with laying to win a point at odds at 1.25 I've found anything over them not been profitable. Ive picked my trades by drilling down I look for certain criteria over home at 1.5 and odds of less than or equal to 1.25. The only way can improve it that I can is increase the first half goal ratio but worked out wouldn't be more profit just better ROI Same profit just less games which I agree with you less is more . Last weekend was the most I've had to tbh I don't normally get that many but I'll post the raw data I don't mind any help.

Was waiting to world cup and hoping to do a deep dive see if can find a better way to make more money out it

Level 58

Yup just like you have seen on the backing the under, set liability, hen you back/lay with varying odds means you are now taking advantage of better value and not carpeting all games into one box. The aim of the game is value. Yes you are profitable, but surely it makes sense to not miss out on doing it better for no extra effort. Trust me, back the ov1.5 for set stake and you will get better bank results. Laying to win x is very rarely optimal or sensible.

Level 8

@james-rome im not saying change the games, im only suggesting changing how you place the trades. Your returns would be miles better for the exact same effort. Since may its been +38.39, with swings. The volume is huge just last week. You can make this strategy so much more simple with your planned tweak (better quality) and yet produce better profits. Both of which gives you a better edge to protect.

Level 8

@steven-bright said in Attacking Betfair Trading:

Laying to get matched in play is not trading value. If a game starts not in your value price then its never gonna be value. I hate seeing this because people have been told to do this. Dont! You must always trade with value otherwise you're grinding. The best way to trade this type of strategy is to back with a set liability and at value price. I fear you are just getting all games from your list and then just praying to get matched whenever in a match and hope it wins. Thats not value trading. If you want when you have time id be happy to help you.

Appreicate the post ill give you a shout around world cup this its just i am going the way i am going to then my plan ive stuck to has been working and been profitable every month so far and its been growing my bank steadily.

On value betting sound simliar to my under 1.5 what i am deveolping from my losing selections which is from my losing selections i.e bank a point on unders much better return

hes what its at now 358 Trades 65.94 Points Profit from backing with one point. ROI 18.41%

So do Home vs Away has to be less than 1 and greater than -1. Over Odds Greater than 1.3 ( No odds filter on my filter as misses games so just look on the morning) feel free have a look posted it on this forum for discession not long ago about two weeks ( id upload the actually file but at work )

https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3286/set-forget-football-strategies-community-collaboration-project/438

Level 58

Laying to get matched in play is not trading value. If a game starts not in your value price then its never gonna be value. I hate seeing this because people have been told to do this. Dont! You must always trade with value otherwise you're grinding. The best way to trade this type of strategy is to back with a set liability and at value price. I fear you are just getting all games from your list and then just praying to get matched whenever in a match and hope it wins. Thats not value trading. If you want when you have time id be happy to help you.

Level 8

i layout why i do it the way i do it at some point this week i am not good at writing and will take a while and busy at work when i have a chance at will but i am busy at work this week

Level 58

@steven-bright yeah ive looked at liabilty for me and based probabilty my longest run and longest winning etc and based my lay odds on that ( i dont have the link its on the football fourm somehwere) why i have chosen to lay 5.0 so some games like the two last night starting oddswhere around 10 so i just put a order in for 5.0 and let run in play if it get matched great if not then i just skip the game. Hence why thinking maybe getting matched at 4.0 to reduce risk. I dont just lay at any price

Level 58
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