Attacking Betfair Trading
-
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@eamonn-hogan Yep still tho you would need to hope that if these do go to HT 0-0 that the odds reach this because you already had the FHG part placed. It would change the whole strategy and its strike rate. Higher odds when laying or lower odds when backing tend to improve the strike rate and make it feel like its doing well but actually its harming your potential. Its why these may be better off being 2 separate strategies. Right now with only a 78% strike rate for 0-0 lays these wouldnt work at the prices if using a points system which is the best way to measure if its working, rather than money which hides its success. At these prices and that staking the 0-0s on their own would fail. Hopefully im making sense but really if james now starts to track these based on a points system so % of bank basis he will now get to know the true p/l of given strategy. Right now compounding is masking it. Its kind of how stock market traders can predict when to short a position. Profits being masked by increase of money being put into it. Basically your gonna have to keep upping stakes hoping for no losses over time, but if a few hit when doing that its game over, hence why im warning so heavily on this whole strategy. Recoveries just are something id stay clear of.
i dont use points i just record the actually money staked as at the start i didnt get the points thing. so its better to do points ? could you do it as two plans ( no recovery ) need odds to drop to maybe 4 or 5.
Losing night tonight about 6 points once betfair seatlles it properly ill update
-
@eamonn-hogan Yep still tho you would need to hope that if these do go to HT 0-0 that the odds reach this because you already had the FHG part placed. It would change the whole strategy and its strike rate. Higher odds when laying or lower odds when backing tend to improve the strike rate and make it feel like its doing well but actually its harming your potential. Its why these may be better off being 2 separate strategies. Right now with only a 78% strike rate for 0-0 lays these wouldnt work at the prices if using a points system which is the best way to measure if its working, rather than money which hides its success. At these prices and that staking the 0-0s on their own would fail. Hopefully im making sense but really if james now starts to track these based on a points system so % of bank basis he will now get to know the true p/l of given strategy. Right now compounding is masking it. Its kind of how stock market traders can predict when to short a position. Profits being masked by increase of money being put into it. Basically your gonna have to keep upping stakes hoping for no losses over time, but if a few hit when doing that its game over, hence why im warning so heavily on this whole strategy. Recoveries just are something id stay clear of.
-
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Just to pop up with a real example, brentford here didnt have a FHG, but your getting much better odds to lay for the 0-0 than some of these other games. If your selecting games for the same reasons ie barca yesterday and brentford today then they should be same % chance, so barca odds yesterday was 9.6 these are just 4.3 massive difference. These type of games while still big liability are where you could snipe better prices for the strategy. Maybe thats an angle to look for. It all comes down to strike rates with these type of set and forgets.
good shout , perhaps add to the filter 0-0 scoreline below 12 at start for example
-
Just to pop up with a real example, brentford here didnt have a FHG, but your getting much better odds to lay for the 0-0 than some of these other games. If your selecting games for the same reasons ie barca yesterday and brentford today then they should be same % chance, so barca odds yesterday was 9.6 these are just 4.3 massive difference. These type of games while still big liability are where you could snipe better prices for the strategy. Maybe thats an angle to look for. It all comes down to strike rates with these type of set and forgets. I do a SHG trade with odds no more than 5s i need around an 84% for me to feel happy i have a big enough edge long term with variance. Yours is current strike rate is 78% so you need to be getting on odds less than probably aiming for more like these type odds. Hope im explaining that well enough. Right now the lays are long term masked by your compounding if done based on points these dont work.
-
@eamonn-hogan said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
i used the same filter that you said you use and I got 2 pages of games, also the brentford game was not on it. How did you pick them 3 games?
what leagues you got on mate ? i included most major leagues top 2 divisions. i will write them down later so can see cant screenshot them. Not all leagues have correct score so dont trade thoughs. Well i dont know why it wasnt on because thats why i dropped the goals. I had to look manually for them. then do research around them use these links below to check see if goals likely
https://footystats.org/
https://www.forebet.com/en/football-tips-and-predictions-for-today -
i used the same filter that you said you use and I got 2 pages of games, also the brentford game was not on it. How did you pick them 3 games?
-
@Darri mate honestly cant thank you enough your posts have got me thinking alot more about risk and staking plans which have been a big help not just for this but now when i LTD i think now right dont risk more than 4 points to win 1 and thats if we let it run and if i want to get out be less than 4. ill just want to get to 300 matches feel like thats a goodish sample size. TBH ive kinda been thinking about this as i just did £25 quid wasnt based on points might have a think about it. Once ive got to end of the month may look at lay 0-0 average potenially work back from that. Wait and see just going to sit back watch champions league for now
but i do like the sound of being a millionaire in 2 years minf
hahaha out of something from only fools and horses. Thanks for the help its always welcome -
@james-rome phew! So we are saying roughly 20% risked here to win 1pt from the normal 0-0 lay(be careful anyone following risk less). Quite honestly if this does work long term there is no reason you cant half this risk. Based on your projections youll still be a millionaire in 2 years. Ill stop pestering anyway and let you collect more data. I just see you testing this with real money and see a wasted opportunity to build from that amount. Normally takes people a while to get to that level from having just started, dont want to see you boom it just from testing. But im off now think iv hijacked your thread sorry if it came across as being arsey im honestly just trying to help/warn. Ill keep tabs on how you get on mate
-
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome just looking at these sheets, are you calculating liability based off your average odds? For the barca game your liability is calculated based off odds of 6.04 which you say is the average but you actual liability would have been way more. The odds at HT was +9.0 so the actual liability would have been around minimum 360, eamonn said they were 9.8 which means 396 liability. Then you also have the fhg liability and the additional trade you also put on. So its more like +400 than just the 220? Or have i missed something? If your bank is £900 then thats 44% of the bank on one game minimum.
so i placed to lays at 9.6 @ £25 and another at 1.6 at @ £20 i based the average off what betfair said was on the profit and loss section
Dont want to say my excact bank but its above 900 now its just above 1k
-
@james-rome just looking at these sheets, are you calculating liability based off your average odds? For the barca game your liability is calculated based off odds of 6.04 which you say is the average but you actual liability would have been way more. The odds at HT was +9.0 so the actual liability would have been around minimum 360, eamonn said they were 9.8 which means 396 liability. Then you also have the fhg liability and the additional trade you also put on. So its more like +400 than just the 220? Or have i missed something? If your bank is £900 then thats 44% of the bank on one game minimum.
-
@darri
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome lovely stuff mate, will be easier to measure now we are back to domestic games again from the weekend onwards
on that staking plan lets try give an example unlike before when i just talked about it.So example on the croatia vs malta game. It ended 0-0 HT. The lay odds of the 0-0 would have been plus 7.0, you laying that for £25 so max liability of £150? And then also the £25 from the FHG part too so £175 max loss?
Compared to just £25 max liability from just the FHGs only strategy which is the one we talked about. Remember your short term gonna make more from the 0-0 lays compared to the FHGs because of that outlay. Your risking over 5x the amount but your not getting 5x the profit. The use of capital on these would be better spent on making the FHGs more profitable.
Lets try to give this in a real world context. We have two houses side by side on the same street. They are absolutely identical. House 1 is 5x more expensive than House 2. House 1 however you can rent this out for 1.5x more per month than house 2. Heres the thing tho the yield difference is huge given your 5x more outlay. In fact if you did not invest in house 1 and instead you used the money you would save by buying house 2 by either improving that house or buying 2-4 more houses the profits would be far bigger than the risk of investing in house 1 even tho it seems like it makes more short term!! Then there is the risk factor, house one is 5x more expensive if you cant resale it or rent it out for that price then the risk is huge compared to the 5x less on house 2 when actually you have 5x more bank room to be wrong (in trading we have to allow for losses).
Lets use a trading example from yesterday. you made 4.83 points from the normal strategy risking £150 max loss per game. But made a safer 2.76 points using just £25 max loss. Lets say instead of doing the 0-0 recovery lays we use just £25 of that risk so just 16% of the max loss (£150) from the normal strategy and put that into the FHGs only, you would have made 5.52 so when you compare that. It works out as +0.69 better off and you risked only £50 instead of £150 which is 3x times less risk.
So based on the bank you have just now £1,000 based on your points gained. You risked on the croatia game 17 points/17% of the bank to win 0.99 points. 5 losses away from bank bust because you would not be able to trade 6 games at this level. Removing the 0-0 lays would have resulted in a loss on this game, from the FHG only approach that would have been just -2.5 points so your then 40 trades away from a loss compared to just 6 from the 0-0 lays. Your one loss on the 0-0 lays would mean you would need to win 17 points, 17 trades on the 0-0 lays just to break even from that trade, imagine you get 2 in one day, whereas the FHG only your losing just 2.5 points which is around 2 good trades to get back profit. The need to be making gains on each game/selection is extreme risk, im probably coming across as a pain in the ass here, but im not wanting to see someone on here go bust and not come back, already seen a few guys drop off this year who used to be regulars.
Just trying to show you how use of capital could be used here instead of doing a recovery. Its kind of similar to the martingale strategy using a 0-0 lay recovery. Make more money with less risk. Risk management and bank management here will massively up your trading.
Please re read this before you commit. James as he has said is persisting purely for finding out purposes and for himself. So before you start jumping on board seeing profits think about this. Long term the FHG is the way forward here or a revised staking plan. The house example i used is something id like anyone to think about here. Moving some of that risk away from the 0-0s which on their own dont make money long term, and onto the FHG these would make more money long term. I really urge people to think before acting, short term gains are good mentally but these hits are huge. If its profitable at these liabilities it will also be profitable with much more safer risk levels. Stake management is key long term. I truly believe this is a bout of good luck and is flattering only because of compounding. I hope im wrong btw, and ill happily eat my words. At this rate these would make him a millionaire in the next 2 years, these were also 1 loss away at one stage from a bank bust if you look at the sheets. But i think even james himself knows from discussions that he will change stake management long term to make this sustainable.
Please read this by @Darri hes alot more experianced than i am and TBH my stake mangement was shocking if you look at my sheets it could of gone very wrong amd lost alot of money i got cocky bascially from winning alot . I dont want people to follow this and lose alot of money as honestly thats the last thing i want. I am doing this month as excerise as a learning curve so if i loss i am prepared but i really just want to back up for darri said honestly dont want people to lose alot of money that could of taken a long time to build up. PLEASE READ THAT POST !
-
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome lovely stuff mate, will be easier to measure now we are back to domestic games again from the weekend onwards
on that staking plan lets try give an example unlike before when i just talked about it.So example on the croatia vs malta game. It ended 0-0 HT. The lay odds of the 0-0 would have been plus 7.0, you laying that for £25 so max liability of £150? And then also the £25 from the FHG part too so £175 max loss?
Compared to just £25 max liability from just the FHGs only strategy which is the one we talked about. Remember your short term gonna make more from the 0-0 lays compared to the FHGs because of that outlay. Your risking over 5x the amount but your not getting 5x the profit. The use of capital on these would be better spent on making the FHGs more profitable.
Lets try to give this in a real world context. We have two houses side by side on the same street. They are absolutely identical. House 1 is 5x more expensive than House 2. House 1 however you can rent this out for 1.5x more per month than house 2. Heres the thing tho the yield difference is huge given your 5x more outlay. In fact if you did not invest in house 1 and instead you used the money you would save by buying house 2 by either improving that house or buying 2-4 more houses the profits would be far bigger than the risk of investing in house 1 even tho it seems like it makes more short term!! Then there is the risk factor, house one is 5x more expensive if you cant resale it or rent it out for that price then the risk is huge compared to the 5x less on house 2 when actually you have 5x more bank room to be wrong (in trading we have to allow for losses).
Lets use a trading example from yesterday. you made 4.83 points from the normal strategy risking £150 max loss per game. But made a safer 2.76 points using just £25 max loss. Lets say instead of doing the 0-0 recovery lays we use just £25 of that risk so just 16% of the max loss (£150) from the normal strategy and put that into the FHGs only, you would have made 5.52 so when you compare that. It works out as +0.69 better off and you risked only £50 instead of £150 which is 3x times less risk.
So based on the bank you have just now £1,000 based on your points gained. You risked on the croatia game 17 points/17% of the bank to win 0.99 points. 5 losses away from bank bust because you would not be able to trade 6 games at this level. Removing the 0-0 lays would have resulted in a loss on this game, from the FHG only approach that would have been just -2.5 points so your then 40 trades away from a loss compared to just 6 from the 0-0 lays. Your one loss on the 0-0 lays would mean you would need to win 17 points, 17 trades on the 0-0 lays just to break even from that trade, imagine you get 2 in one day, whereas the FHG only your losing just 2.5 points which is around 2 good trades to get back profit. The need to be making gains on each game/selection is extreme risk, im probably coming across as a pain in the ass here, but im not wanting to see someone on here go bust and not come back, already seen a few guys drop off this year who used to be regulars.
Just trying to show you how use of capital could be used here instead of doing a recovery. Its kind of similar to the martingale strategy using a 0-0 lay recovery. Make more money with less risk. Risk management and bank management here will massively up your trading.
Please re read this before you commit. James as he has said is persisting purely for finding out purposes and for himself. So before you start jumping on board seeing profits think about this. Long term the FHG is the way forward here or a revised staking plan. The house example i used is something id like anyone to think about here. Moving some of that risk away from the 0-0s which on their own dont make money long term, and onto the FHG these would make more money long term. I really urge people to think before acting, short term gains are good mentally but these hits are huge. If its profitable at these liabilities it will also be profitable with much more safer risk levels. Stake management is key long term. I truly believe this is a bout of good luck and is flattering only because of compounding. I hope im wrong btw, and ill happily eat my words. At this rate these would make him a millionaire in the next 2 years, these were also 1 loss away at one stage from a bank bust if you look at the sheets. But i think even james himself knows from discussions that he will change stake management long term to make this sustainable.
-
@darri
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
I see a few guys interested in this strategy, please read some of the other comments. Please be careful. This is why iv been quite vocal, i dont want this trend to actually take shape as it could bank bust many other people. These things always attract people to jump on as they see profits. If you read my posts previous to this iv given a good understanding as to why these are false profits long term and are very flattering short term.. If this strategy works it will also work with much less liability. Bare this in mind when your starting out trading these. As martin has also said try to limit the whole risk of this. Im speaking from experience of doing exactly this it works initially based on luck of missing 0-0s but they happen and this has been on a good run. If you take a look at the sheets the bad runs happen and are a bomb to the bank. Please use sensible staking if your going to be following these trades. Not being negative and sorry if its coming across that way more trying to warn against the liability not the actual strategy. Even try limit it to a total risk of 5-10 points max. Please be careful.
100 percent agree with this BTW i know i said i am still going to do it for another month but if i do take a loss i am also currently do match betting so i can balance it out. Stake mangement is something i really beeen looking into since @Darri posted about it as its not something i thought about to much. Please dont risk the farm on me as i been doing this for 3 Months i know very little ahah
-
Apologise for the delay in getting back to you all busy day at work on this project. Tried to get on at lunch but forum down so not been avoiding questions hahah
@Darri TBH i am was kicking myself when i got in as i ended up in a zoom meeting when was on ( do stuff outside of work) i knew the odds where to high but I was in a rush i should of just took the loss but because i look into pre match(why I LTD as well). I shouldn’t have layed 0-0 and was just about to cash out on 79 when the red happened so not great would of taken 10 points loss. when i layed 0-0 i thought if no goal would take about that and was happy to as i thought the chances or no goal where small. But i shouldn’t of done it i should try and trade around other things to. I still going to do it for a month just compare i just i need to do it to learn like last night i wouldn’t have had the same experience if i paper traded. But just to note i do have a figure in my head where if i go down to that i am going to stop regardless so not being completely reckless. I am alot further ahead then i was expecting to be so just treating it as a learning exercise on this. I just don’t seem ungrateful I am just something i need to do.
But on that i do have a question (open to all) so just curious really so if i seen the Barcelona game normally and seen 0-0 i would think its a good option to enter for LTD/LCS as would expect goals in the second half. So what i am trying to ask is if you do FHG and lost but thought goal was coming second half would you essentially enter but treat that as a separate strategy. Its just with the filter if its 0-0 its got a strong favourite in it I think in those games could be value in the 2nd half but not sure how to approach it.
Also LTD i did put the order in at HT but put what odds i wanted in so got matched later on trying do max 4 points risk for 1 point. So sure i put a lay in for 4.
@Martin-Futter So roughly since January with everything ive made roughly between 550-600 Points. I am looking more into stake mangement
@Jez-Rourke-Pilott I just back first half market O0.5 as they have higher odds and let it run.
@Eamonn-Hogan the reason is at 6 as thats the average I layed some more at 0-0 on 80min when i decided to stay in. So for FHG when all positions have been matched you will notice its the same. Its just i want line per match for my excel so i cant think of another way of doing it and I don’t want loads of columns either. Sorry if its confusing ha its just for ease.
@Andrew-Bannister i maybe be wrong on this so happy to be corrected but this is how i thought it worked. So i could back but the odds or low so essentially i would have to back what i am putting down as liability for a lay so not reducing the liability. But if i am wrong i am happy to be corrected everyday a school.
I think I’ve answered everyone questions if not let me know. Also just want to say a massive thank you to everyone engaging in this and offering advise and questions as that’s what I wanted from this. Questions to help me address why I do something and advise to help improve I do take it all on board. Ive had a long ass day as work so I am going to go on a walk for a bit before Champions league tonight. If anyone wants to ask anything else I will get back to you later I just need a screen break,
-
I see a few guys interested in this strategy, please read some of the other comments. Please be careful. This is why iv been quite vocal, i dont want this trend to actually take shape as it could bank bust many other people. These things always attract people to jump on as they see profits. If you read my posts previous to this iv given a good understanding as to why these are false profits long term and are very flattering short term.. If this strategy works it will also work with much less liability. Bare this in mind when your starting out trading these. As martin has also said try to limit the whole risk of this. Im speaking from experience of doing exactly this it works initially based on luck of missing 0-0s but they happen and this has been on a good run. If you take a look at the sheets the bad runs happen and are a bomb to the bank. Please use sensible staking if your going to be following these trades. Not being negative and sorry if its coming across that way more trying to warn against the liability not the actual strategy. Even try limit it to a total risk of 5-10 points max. Please be careful.
-
@jez-rourke-pilott said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome for FHG , whats the best way to back this ? is it to back the next 2 score lines , i,e 1-0 and 0-1 or lay 0-0 ?
as i see some say lay 0-0 and FHG ?
You can back over 0.5 goals by half time on the half time options
-
James just curious why you have lay odds of barcelona at 6.04 to lay at half time, they were 9.8 when I looked. Did you wait a while in the 2nd half or what?
-
@james-rome for FHG , whats the best way to back this ? is it to back the next 2 score lines , i,e 1-0 and 0-1 or lay 0-0 ?
as i see some say lay 0-0 and FHG ?
-
@martin-futter do you not think the risk is too much for these long term mate? its fantastic he has made profit but i think he should take it and run while he is up. Barcelona game was around 30% of his whole bank in one game, have a look at his sheets. Just trying to warn him not saying anything else is wrong just the liability. Its similar to laying the outside horse eventually there are 2 in a row that win etc.
