Attacking Betfair Trading
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@martin-futter said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome really liking this!
Cheers the thread has helped me alot and why i want to do it so glad i did
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Also just as a side note any profit i make during a month i will be withdrawing 10 percent to invest so if the points gains or losses change from now onwards its due that cheers
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01/04/21
LTD and KO
Espanyol v FuenlabradaFHG & Lay 00
Espanyol v Fuenlabrada
Western United v Melbourne CityFHG
Espanyol v Fuenlabrada
Western United v Melbourne CityI will be driving at 4 so espanyol game i will give a miss but if anyone looking for it they are top of La Liga and accoriding to my filter they have scored 100 percent of the first goal at home so may be good for LTD and cash out
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@james-rome
@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Todays
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Armenia v Romania:+0.99 Points
Andorra v Hungary +2.07 Points
Bosnia v France+0.99 Points
Germany v Macedonia+2.07 Points
Lithunania v Italy+0.99 Points
Scotland v Farfoe Islands- Goal Came to early
Spain v Kosovo-+0.25 Points
Ukraine v Kazakhastan-+0.25 PointsI have been busy so these points are estimated so i have paper trades these as i didnt have time to lay any at HT. I did place bets using the below plan though so those are accurate
FHG
Armenia v Romania:-2.49 ( Had a dyslexic moment and bet on wrong game meant the hungary game)
Andorra v Hungary +1.71
Bosnia v France:-2.49
Germany v Macedonia+1.71
Lithunania v Italy-2.49
Scotland v Farfoe Islands - Goal Came to early
Spain v Kosovo+1.71
Ukraine v Kazakhastan+1.21Total Points Using FHG & Lay 0-0:+7.61Points (Estimated)
Total Points Using FHG: -1.13 Points -
@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Todays
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Andorra v Hungary
Bosnia v France
Germany v Macedonia
Lithunania v Italy
Scotland v Farfoe Islands*
Spain v Kosovo*
Ukraine v Kazakhastan^FHG
Andorra v Hungary
Bosnia v France
Germany v Macedonia
Lithunania v Italy
Scotland v Farfoe Islands*
Spain v Kosovo*
Ukraine v Kazakhastan^I am busy tonight i dont know if i will have the time to trades these but if i was these would be mine. England quailfy but from research expecting a low scoring game with lewandowski injured think poland will park the bus.
the ones ive stared are the ones ill be focusing on if i have time. Also from looking around some website Goals are predicted in the austria denmark game as well
actually i tell a lie because of the new way i do set and forget so ill be doing that for some of them so tonight maybe on the new system and ill have to paper trade the others potenially
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Todays
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Andorra v Hungary
Bosnia v France
Germany v Macedonia
Lithunania v Italy
Scotland v Farfoe Islands*
Spain v Kosovo*
Ukraine v Kazakhastan^FHG
Andorra v Hungary
Bosnia v France
Germany v Macedonia
Lithunania v Italy
Scotland v Farfoe Islands*
Spain v Kosovo*
Ukraine v Kazakhastan^I am busy tonight i dont know if i will have the time to trades these but if i was these would be mine. England quailfy but from research expecting a low scoring game with lewandowski injured think poland will park the bus.
the ones ive stared are the ones ill be focusing on if i have time. Also from looking around some website Goals are predicted in the austria denmark game as well
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@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome the martingale strategy is quite frankly a trading no go in my opinion. martin did a video on this too i think or at least covered recovery type bets. you basically lose your first bet in your case the FHG part and then follow it up with doubling your next bet, if that loses you then double again. Essentially your expecting to win your money back as long as your bank can cover it. The flaw in that is it only takes 3-4 losers to make this a fricking huge risk. Now your not doing that in a sense i actually think this 0-0 lay is even worse in terms of risk. With a martingale its just double your initial bet, with yours its nearly 5x that amount per losing FHG just to make 1pt. Just trying to show you that its really not worth the risk and actually that money really ought to be moved towards FHGs. Iv re looked at my post this morning and i really hope you keep that in mind. Its a no brainer really when you look at the numbers bud. Dont be blinded by the false profits in the short term, if you plan to do this long term then risk management and bank management are key. That risk reward ratio between FHGs only and the 0-0 lays is hugely different and id be repositioning my staking towards the FHGs as i showed you would be miles better off with 3-5x less risk.
Yeah your post has definatly got my thinking and i see the flaw in what i am doing with the Lay 0-0 but i am still going to run it side by side for a month as a learning excerise for myself as i honetly belive that will be the best thing for my understanding long term even if i lose money. Then at the end of the month ill look at it but can tell i will bin the lay 0-0
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@james-rome the martingale strategy is quite frankly a trading no go in my opinion. martin did a video on this too i think or at least covered recovery type bets. you basically lose your first bet in your case the FHG part and then follow it up with doubling your next bet, if that loses you then double again. Essentially your expecting to win your money back as long as your bank can cover it. The flaw in that is it only takes 3-4 losers to make this a fricking huge risk. Now your not doing that in a sense i actually think this 0-0 lay is even worse in terms of risk. With a martingale its just double your initial bet, with yours its nearly 5x that amount per losing FHG just to make 1pt. Just trying to show you that its really not worth the risk and actually that money really ought to be moved towards FHGs. Iv re looked at my post this morning and i really hope you keep that in mind. Its a no brainer really when you look at the numbers bud. Dont be blinded by the false profits in the short term, if you plan to do this long term then risk management and bank management are key. That risk reward ratio between FHGs only and the 0-0 lays is hugely different and id be repositioning my staking towards the FHGs as i showed you would be miles better off with 3-5x less risk.
Think of it this way if you had to put all the money and assets you own into choosing between these 2 strategies. Would you take the risk of having 5 unlucky trades to lose it all? Unlucky trades happen. France drew 0-0 with luxemburg, bankers have off days, bad weather or goalies have worldies, all can happen in one day/weekend. We have spoken about this tho and i get you need to see the data for yourself but please dont be blinded or misguided by the short term view of these 0-0 lays. Bookmark my post from this morning and when you get a chance re read it, cant stress enough how much i believe your missing out by not focussing on moving that whole risk away from 0-0 lays and using just a fraction of it towards more FHG staking. Less risk more profit.
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@darri
@darri said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
@james-rome lovely stuff mate, will be easier to measure now we are back to domestic games again from the weekend onwards
on that staking plan lets try give an example unlike before when i just talked about it.So example on the croatia vs malta game. It ended 0-0 HT. The lay odds of the 0-0 would have been plus 7.0, you laying that for £25 so max liability of £150? And then also the £25 from the FHG part too so £175 max loss?
Compared to just £25 max liability from just the FHGs only strategy which is the one we talked about. Remember your short term gonna make more from the 0-0 lays compared to the FHGs because of that outlay. Your risking over 5x the amount but your not getting 5x the profit. The use of capital on these would be better spent on making the FHGs more profitable.
Lets try to give this in a real world context. We have two houses side by side on the same street. They are absolutely identical. House 1 is 5x more expensive than House 2. House 1 however you can rent this out for 1.5x more per month than house 2. Heres the thing tho the yield difference is huge given your 5x more outlay. In fact if you did not invest in house 1 and instead you used the money you would save by buying house 2 by either improving that house or buying 2-4 more houses the profits would be far bigger than the risk of investing in house 1 even tho it seems like it makes more short term!! Then there is the risk factor, house one is 5x more expensive if you cant resale it or rent it out for that price then the risk is huge compared to the 5x less on house 2 when actually you have 5x more bank room to be wrong (in trading we have to allow for losses).
Lets use a trading example from yesterday. you made 4.83 points from the normal strategy risking £150 max loss per game. But made a safer 2.76 points using just £25 max loss. Lets say instead of doing the 0-0 recovery lays we use just £25 of that risk so just 16% of the max loss (£150) from the normal strategy and put that into the FHGs only, you would have made 5.52 so when you compare that. It works out as +0.69 better off and you risked only £50 instead of £150 which is 3x times less risk.
So based on the bank you have just now £1,000 based on your points gained. You risked on the croatia game 17 points/17% of the bank to win 0.99 points. 5 losses away from bank bust because you would not be able to trade 6 games at this level. Removing the 0-0 lays would have resulted in a loss on this game, from the FHG only approach that would have been just -2.5 points so your then 40 trades away from a loss compared to just 6 from the 0-0 lays. Your one loss on the 0-0 lays would mean you would need to win 17 points, 17 trades on the 0-0 lays just to break even from that trade, imagine you get 2 in one day, whereas the FHG only your losing just 2.5 points which is around 2 good trades to get back profit. The need to be making gains on each game/selection is extreme risk, im probably coming across as a pain in the ass here, but im not wanting to see someone on here go bust and not come back, already seen a few guys drop off this year who used to be regulars.
Just trying to show you how use of capital could be used here instead of doing a recovery. Its kind of similar to the martingale strategy using a 0-0 lay recovery. Make more money with less risk. Risk management and bank management here will massively up your trading.
Hi Mate,
Yeah i was thinking when i was running them side by side last night and that was goaless. I mean i was confindent a croatia team would get one against Cyprus but i was thinking regardless for the amount using even though its very likely they will get at least one at some point i will get caught out like keeper having a worldie or something. I was thinking of doing this wanted to have one team better than the other likely to score. So international break been very good for me as there is a very large gap in quality.Like was saying on chat i am going to keep going with it for a month just want some more data to compare and for me to experaince it as best way to learn i belive.
Just out of curiosity mate you mentioned this is simliar to the martingale strategy what is that ive never heard it i am guessing its simliar to what i am doing.
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@james-rome lovely stuff mate, will be easier to measure now we are back to domestic games again from the weekend onwards
on that staking plan lets try give an example unlike before when i just talked about it.So example on the croatia vs malta game. It ended 0-0 HT. The lay odds of the 0-0 would have been plus 7.0, you laying that for £25 so max liability of £150? And then also the £25 from the FHG part too so £175 max loss?
Compared to just £25 max liability from just the FHGs only strategy which is the one we talked about. Remember your short term gonna make more from the 0-0 lays compared to the FHGs because of that outlay. Your risking over 5x the amount but your not getting 5x the profit. The use of capital on these would be better spent on making the FHGs more profitable.
Lets try to give this in a real world context. We have two houses side by side on the same street. They are absolutely identical. House 1 is 5x more expensive than House 2. House 1 however you can rent this out for 1.5x more per month than house 2. Heres the thing tho the yield difference is huge given your 5x more outlay. In fact if you did not invest in house 1 and instead you used the money you would save by buying house 2 by either improving that house or buying 2-4 more houses the profits would be far bigger than the risk of investing in house 1 even tho it seems like it makes more short term!! Then there is the risk factor, house one is 5x more expensive if you cant resale it or rent it out for that price then the risk is huge compared to the 5x less on house 2 when actually you have 5x more bank room to be wrong (in trading we have to allow for losses).
Lets use a trading example from yesterday. you made 4.83 points from the normal strategy risking £150 max loss per game. But made a safer 2.76 points using just £25 max loss. Lets say instead of doing the 0-0 recovery lays we use just £25 of that risk so just 16% of the max loss (£150) from the normal strategy and put that into the FHGs only, you would have made 5.52 so when you compare that. It works out as +0.69 better off and you risked only £50 instead of £150 which is 3x times less risk.
So based on the bank you have just now £1,000 based on your points gained. You risked on the croatia game 17 points/17% of the bank to win 0.99 points. 5 losses away from bank bust because you would not be able to trade 6 games at this level. Removing the 0-0 lays would have resulted in a loss on this game, from the FHG only approach that would have been just -2.5 points so your then 40 trades away from a loss compared to just 6 from the 0-0 lays. Your one loss on the 0-0 lays would mean you would need to win 17 points, 17 trades on the 0-0 lays just to break even from that trade, imagine you get 2 in one day, whereas the FHG only your losing just 2.5 points which is around 2 good trades to get back profit. The need to be making gains on each game/selection is extreme risk, im probably coming across as a pain in the ass here, but im not wanting to see someone on here go bust and not come back, already seen a few guys drop off this year who used to be regulars.
Just trying to show you how use of capital could be used here instead of doing a recovery. Its kind of similar to the martingale strategy using a 0-0 lay recovery. Make more money with less risk. Risk management and bank management here will massively up your trading.
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Also can i just say Betdaq is awful btw i thought betfair interface is bad at times but my god betdaq is miles worse
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so just FYI i will be editing the description of the page so but the points used on the FHGs even though won or lost on my betdaq account will be calculated of my betafir balance to make it fair.
@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Todays Selections
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Azerbaijan v Serbia:+0.25 Points
Cyprus v Slovenia+2.07 Points
Belgium v Belarus+0.25 Points
Croatia v Malta+0.99 Points
Luxemborg v Portugal +0.51 Points
Turkey v Lativa: Goal Came to early
Gilbraltar v Holland:+0.25 Points ( Thought wouldnt get on this as HT Odds were very low before KO)
(Norway quailfy but they in bad form staying away)FHG
Azerbaijan v Serbia +0.51 Points
Cyprus v Slovenia +1.79 Points
Belgium v Belarus+0.51 Points
Croatia v Malta:-2.6 Points
Luxemborg v Portugal +1.79 Points
Turkey v Lativa:Goal Came to early
Gilbraltar v Holland:+0.25 Points (coudlnt get on but if i did i would have just placed the same)LCS
Wales v Czech:+0.51 Points ( Wales need to win anad against 10men so got involded)Total Points Using FHG & Lay 0-0:+4.83 Points
Total Points Using FHG:+2.76 Points -
@eamonn-hogan Just missed it off when i copied and pasted off the other one no reason just typo haha cheers i hadnt notcied
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Hi James . Why is the Serbia game not in the new strategy?@james-rome said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Todays Selections
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Azerbaijan v Serbia
Cyprus v Slovenia
Belgium v Belarus
Croatia v Malta
Luxemborg v Portugal
Turkey v Lativa(Norway quailfy but they in bad form staying away)
FHG
Cyprus v Slovenia
Belgium v Belarus
Croatia v Malta
Luxemborg v Portugal
Turkey v Lativa -
Todays Selections
LTD and KO
NoneFHG & Lay 00
Azerbaijan v Serbia
Cyprus v Slovenia
Belgium v Belarus
Croatia v Malta
Luxemborg v Portugal
Turkey v Lativa(Norway quailfy but they in bad form staying away)
FHG
Azerbaijan v Serbia
Cyprus v Slovenia
Belgium v Belarus
Croatia v Malta
Luxemborg v Portugal
Turkey v Lativa -
@james-rome not sure what changes these are, but i wish you all the best bud. Any questions just ask, i also think some of the football thread guys would add some cracking value ideas here too. I just see so much liability on the 0-0 lays that could be directed elsewhere and for less risk, i dont like recovery trades especially not at that level. But im happy for you and to see you tracking what those differences are shows a good level of trading mindset. Good luck bud
really interested if the FHG split work better with that shorter split approach, i only really thought of that when i was doing a run down hope it works better than previous. So ill keep following along as you go mate -
@matt-wood said in Attacking Betfair Trading:
Gotta say thanks to @Darri for the great insights and thanks to @James-Rome for opening up this chat. Really great stuff and helps a slow learner like me loads
Proof again of what a great place this is for learning. Yeah big thanks @Darri i knew i hadnt "cracked it" i need some help the insight was great i hadnt spotted the FHGs so ill be trying it out tonight.
