Backing The Draw - Again!
-
Hi to anybody reading - hope everyone is well and staying positive during these rough times.
I had a thread last year on my draw system but stopped trading for a while and have now developed a new filter to test. I'm going to be keeping track of it here.
The filter looks at how many minutes on average each team has spent drawing this season & the average amount of goals per match.
Currently the filter is returning games where both the home & away team have been drawing of on average of 45mins or more per game & the combined average goals per game is less than 3.
I'll no doubt be tweaking the figures as the filter returns more results but looking at a bit of regression analysis this looks like a good balance to form a long list.
After the long list is returned I'm then going through and doing my own research to decide on the shortlist for the day, which I'll record below - all placed at level stakes.
If anybody wants to see the longlist you're welcome to have a look, I'll keep it updated daily and here is the shared google sheet link
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jMOkInzEqCEHZhjgxT4Ekow-fJMSxeTngCkUI74tVho/edit?usp=sharing
With my previous draw strategies I've traded them and looked at how the game stats are towards 80 mins but with this one I'm going to set and forget. The strategy is only profitable if the starting draw odds are achieved, with a potentialy lowish strike rate trading out for less make it pointless.
Monday 22nd February 2021
UTA Arad vs Botosani @3.30
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Oznan @3.60
Osasuna vs Sevilla @3.40
Feirense vsAcademica @3.05
Maldonado vs Plaza Colonia @3.05Smouha vs El-Masry in Egypt & Fuenlabrada vs Real Oviedo in Spain Segunda would also qualify for me if it weren't for the odds being below 3.00. I've placed orders in the market for both at 3.00 but I very much doubt they'll be taken.
Smouha have drawn their last 4 home games and 5 out of their last 6, only punctuated by a loss to Zamalek - wish I'd found them sooner!
-
Tuesday 23rd February 2021
Le Mans vs Boulogne @3.00
Cambridge vs Cheltenham @3.45
Stockport vs Notts County @3.55There are 6 on the longlist today (see link in original post) and these are my 3 selections. Le Mans vs Boulogne is currently trading at 2.98 so my order is in for 3:00, hopefully it'll get matched before kick off.
Just a note too, I haven't got a Betfair account anymore annoyingly (trust me I've tried many ways to get a new one) so I'm using Smarkets. They don't cover all of the matches so some of the odds are taken from other places - if anything the odds on my spreadsheet are skinny so P/L would be bigger.
-
@martin-futter Hi Martin, yep entering at the start so very much more a straight bet than a trade. Feels almost wrong not to be trading when these matches are going on, especially when an 85th minute equaliser went in yesterday! I wanted to trade out straight away but resisted because that's the brief I've given myself.
-
So yesterday proved to be a really positive start, particularly in terms of what the filter returned.
The longlist comprised of 15 games, 7 of those ended in draws which returned a profit of +6.19 pts for the day.
Naturally, the strike rate on the games I chose to stake on was lower! of the 5 I shortlisted 2 ended in a draw which still returned +1.35 pts for the day so I'm more than happy with that.
Monday 22nd February 2021 - Results +1.35 Points
UTA Arad 0-0 Botosani @3.30 +2.30 pts
Piast Gliwice 0-1 Warta Oznan @3.60 -1 pts
Osasuna 0-2 Sevilla @3.40 -1 pts
Feirense 1-0 Academica @3.05 -1pts
Maldonado 1-1 Plaza Colonia @3.05 +2.05 ptsThey were all pretty tight matches as the scorelines predict, apart from Osasuna vs Sevilla which was over in less than 1/2 hour with Osasuna never looking close to getting back in to it.
-
@dave-adams is this entering at start? really interesting will follow with a keen eye!
-
And it's another draw for Smouha - 5 home games in a row! Didn't get on, odds didn't rise much above 2.7 - bookies got that one spot on tbf.
-
@matt-wood Thanks very much Matt - life got in the way somewhat but I'm glad to be back crunching numbers, gives me a bit of a release!
