Split Stake O1.5
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I believe this strategy is one of the most under-appreciated strategies out there but i think it is a great one to use either a) for people starting out who are looking to develop something that works and b) for traders who maybe have a bit more experience and would like to add a second strategy to their portfolio
It isnt my strategy, its one that Ryan posted a long time ago and continues to trade (i believe) so im not claiming to be revolutionising anything, i just thought if i put it in its own thread then maybe it could be appreciated a little and feedback could be shared.
The basic trade is to back O1.5 in the selected games if still 0-0 at 30'. I dont advise backing below 1.4. If there is a goal then simply cashout (you can take the liability out and leave a free bet on O1.5 but for the sake of simplicity ill cash out 2 minutes after a goal). If there is no goal by 50' (ie still 0-0) then back O1.5 for the same stake again. Again, if there is a goal do the same as above. If no goal comes by 70' (so 0-0 at 70') then simply cashout for a loss
I will be using Ryans filter with a few amendments which i shared in another post and i have one of my own which doesnt get quite as many results but is worth adding to the overall. Over the last 5 months they have returned an approx average of 4.7 pts with 2-3 results per day. Doesnt sound exciting but its consistent and has very low variance. Also, that return is based on an overall stake of 1pt meaning the maximum risk has been 0.7pts, so its completely feasible and justifiable to stake a little higher. Personally i will be initially staking 1.5pt overall (2 x 0.75pts) which should mean i dont risk more than 1pt.
I will post the games daily but wont be able to trade every single game because for me its a second strategy, however, i will track all results and provide an analysis at the end of the month (games i dont trade will use a rough average for P/L purposes)
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@mikael-nordstrom Hey buddy
No worries, the English is good (perhaps better than mine
)I'd stake 2-3% on the entry trade then I would track the data then see what time to get out, I wouldn't be thinking at this point oh if my loss gets to 1 then I'll get out as that might not be the best use of your time (it might be less than one) I would rewatch the one where I track the data (day 3 & 4)
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First of all, thanks Ryan for the 5 day challange, was really good for me!
Second...I have change my filter for the over 2,5 angle, after the challange... so I will let you guys now when I get som data to show you!
A little off topic, but I asked on the challange... when It becomes to staking... If you got a a bankroll lets say off 100. How should I think? I stake 2 (2%) and risk 1, so I take the loss when "1 is gone" Or should I stake 3 or 4 and take the loss when Its reach my 2% (1 or 2) What do you think? And for the last time...sorry for my english! -
@martin-futter thanks
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@martin-walker yes that's a very good rate
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I have an 84% strike rate of a goal between 30-70 mins. Is this reasonable if you wanted to play it like ryan plays it.
I know its profitable just not sure how it compares to ryans or other peoples filters -
@mikael-nordstrom
Is there anything around the games where the goals come 24 - 45 as thats a huge profit - so if can find out some of those games what they meet in criteria then maybe that will narrow this down.
How many games had a first half goal in total v total games?
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An update: I have tried the angle O2,5 market for a while...and Its not so good as I hoped for so far.
1 I havnt been able to trade all matches with Ryans filter, I started but maybe to soon I created my own filter.
2 My filter Is a simple filter Criteria 1 favs between 1,5 to 1,9 Criteria 2 odds for O2,5 1,9 and above Criteria 3 Overall Over 0,5 goals in first half = 75% and above
3 When you take a loss, at halftime you loose 50-55% of your stake
4 If there Is a goal between 10-24 min you get a profit between 12-16%
5 If there Is a goal between 25-45 min you get a profit between 40-55%
6 So far my strikerate have been to low and Its to many goals before min 0-24
I will continue to explore the angle but Im not that confident that I were before... -
@mikael-nordstrom said in Split Stake O1.5:
@lee-woodman I will test the O2,5 angel for a while. So far It have only been 2 picks, 1 got a goal i min 4 and yesterdays pick gave a nice profit. I green up right after the goal for a 50-55% profit. Maybe you should just take away the risk, but I was so tired so I went to bed instead to follow the game...
keep us updated!
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@lee-woodman I will test the O2,5 angel for a while. So far It have only been 2 picks, 1 got a goal i min 4 and yesterdays pick gave a nice profit. I green up right after the goal for a 50-55% profit. Maybe you should just take away the risk, but I was so tired so I went to bed instead to follow the game...
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@mikael-nordstrom Yes it is normal for there to be lots of these which end up as a 'no trade' due to a goal before 30'. It will be just over half
There definitely has to be another angle in these somewhere as so many do have early goals so i had actually thought about something like the O2.5 with an earlier entry but its not something ive really explored. When i have a little time i will investigate some patterns in the information to see what alternatives might be an option
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Hi all! I have just used Ryans filter this weekend. But there was many matches that the first goal came before 30 min, is that common? I just thought about and use It for the O2,5 goal market.
Get in with 50% stake at 10 min, If there are 6 or more points at 20 min, the second half of the stake. Green up at a goal or take the loss at halftime... What do you think? -
@lee-woodman Time blocking is great, it allows you to give 100% focus to whatever you are doing then enjoy what you are doing.
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Absolutely loads of games today, not just on these but on my SH goals filters too. I would suggest not trying to trade everything, ive tried to do that and it just burns you out trying to be switched on to trading for 10 hours straight. How i look to cut games down which are shortlisted on criteria alone:
- Time Block - Im a huge fan of doing this, for trading and for everything else in life! Id look when im free for the day and look to create blocks of time to focus on trading. Ive put KO times so you can group games together and say 'well those 7 games flow nicely so i can trade them from 3pm-6pm and then ill miss these 3 but then come back for an hour in the evening'. Its got to work logistically and i dont want to be tied to my computer for 10 hours!
- Some of these leagues i know will have a low chance of being 0-0 at 30' and if they are they will be a poor price. Netherlands is the standout one today. I dont really like to cut out leagues (except for poor liquidity & low level leagues) but consider cutting them out early on a day with so many selections
- Work your other filters into your plan. If you have another filter you are trading then see how these times fit into it. If some of these are duplicated then you can remove them from one of your filters to avoid doubling up but if you are creating blocks of focussed trading time then work both filters together and see how it fits in. Personally i could trade 7 or 8 games simultaneously whilst sticking to my plan but thats because i have my plan set to be very simple, however, i know its hard to do, especially if judging more in-play, so if you dont feel you can then just be honest about it.
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Saturday 13th
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@lee-woodman said in Split Stake O1.5:
Friday 12th
3 winners, 2 non qualifiers. However I didn’t get on the Jong AZ as it was too low in price. I queued at 1.4 which would’ve matched on 32’ but it wasn’t to be. Just over half a point on the 2 which I did trade
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@lee-woodman thanks, i dont think it was on the original so just checking.
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@martin-walker Yes
